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Dan Tom looks at UFC Vegas 47 and shares his picks for the big event.

UFC Vegas 47 Prediction: Jack Hermansson vs Sean Strickland and More

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at OddsChecker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards. 

Click here for UFC Vegas 47 odds

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Main event

The main event for UFC Vegas 47 features an interesting middleweight matchup between Jack Hermansson (+175) and Sean Strickland (-205). Although I'm officially picking the favorite in Strickland to win by decision, I don't believe that the American deserves anywhere near a 2-1 distinction.  Hermansson offers a dangerous stylistic test with his wrestling and submission stylings, as this fight will be taking place in the smaller cage. That said, Strickland has always been a strong grappler who caries underrated wrestling and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt to boot.  If you think Strickland has a solid chance of finishing this fight, then I suggest taking a look at the under 4.5 rounds (if you can find it at a plus number). If not, I recommend looking at other spots to spend your money.

UFC Parlay

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a chalk trio that could produce a solid plus number on the payout. 

Leg 1: Jailton Almeida (-430)

For my first leg, I elected to with Jailton Almeida, who faces fellow Brazilian, Danilo Marques.  Although I usually look to fade products from Dana White's Contender Series, Almeida was one of the rare fighters to earn an elusive A+ from me in my post-fight coverage of that season. Almeida faces another crafty Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt in Marques, but I believe that the UFC newcomer's superior wrestling and athleticism will be the difference-maker here.  Marques also looks to have a suspect gas tank past the first round, which could bode badly against a bigger and better wrestler like Almeida (despite the prospect's lack of decisions). For that reason, I also took a flier on Almeida in round 2 at +450 as a potential added bonus.

Leg 2: Alex Davis (-245)

For my second leg, I decided to take a shot on Alexis Davis, who faces Julija Stoliarenko. Akin to the rest of the matchups in the parlay, this is another bout where both fighters share similar strengths – but one seems to be better at enforcing it. In this case, Davis is clearly the better grappler and overall fighter who will be carrying an experience edge into the fight. And considering that 90 percent of Stoliarenko's wins are first-round armbars against low-level competition, I suspect that Davis' volume and activity should carry her through to a win on the scorecards (as I also made a small wager on Davis to win by decision at +105 to help as either a potential hedge or bonus). 

Leg 3: Shavkat Rakhmonov (-235)

Lastly, I ended up landing on one of my favorite prospects in Shavkat Rakhmonov, who meets Carlston Harris.

Despite Harris having a solid resume to go along with some interesting results, I'm afraid he's up against a superior fighter who shares similar sensibilities. Rakhmonov has senses and skills that go well beyond his years, as I suspect his size poses problems both at distance and in close.

I also think that Rakhmonov's wrestling and submission game will stymie a lot of what Harris typically likes to do from close quarters, so don't be surprised to see the native of Kazahkstan either shut down the Brazilian's game outright or submit him with a guillotine off a shot. Because of that, I took a shot on Rakhmonov "inside the distance" at +100 to stay consistent with my theme of bulking up these parlay legs with potential bonuses.

UFC Parlay Picks

3-leg parlay +147 (Bet $100 to win $147)

  • Jailton Almeida (-430)
  • Alex Davis (-245)
  • Shavkat Rakhmonov (-235)

Want to build your own parlay? Check out OddsChecker's parlay calculator to see what kind of odds your parlay will net!

Live underdog: John Castaneda +155

Although I've come to respect both Miles Johns and his gym's approach a lot over the years, I find myself biting on the live underdog, John Castaneda. Despite Johns turning in back-to-back finishes in the third round to help silence his stamina critics, it still feels like the Fortis MMA product can allow fights to get away from him in spurts. Even when Johns had his last opponent, Anderson dos Santos, hurt and on one leg in the first round, he still almost allowed his foe back into the fight as the Brazilian's impromptu southpaw stance seemed to throw the Texan off. If Johns had trouble finding his jab and leg kicks against a natural orthodox fighter in that stance, then I suspect an experienced and well-trained southpaw like Castaneda could be carrying some quiet kryptonite. Add in the fact that Castaneda is a durable Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt who wrestled at a Division-2 level, and what you have is one of my favorite underdog archetypes.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

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Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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