UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker Prediction, Picks, and Parlay

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker Prediction, Picks, and Parlay

This weekend features the second pay-per-view of the year in what will undoubtedly be a rematch with fireworks. Israel Adesanya (22-1) will enter the octagon across challenger Robert Whittaker (24-5) to see who takes home the UFC's middleweight gold belt.

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Main Event

Adesanya vs. Whittaker Prediction

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In their first fight, Adesanya used his elite-level movement and technical striking to outplay Whittaker, ultimately knocking him out in the second round. Even though Adesanya does have a loss in the UFC, that was in his one fight at light heavyweight, and he is still undefeated at middleweight. Adesanya had a prolific kickboxing career before entering the UFC, and he is considered to be one of the best strikers currently in the UFC, if not the best. Robert Whittaker has earned his way back to the rematch after three decisive decision wins against Darren Till, Jared Cannonier, and Kevin Gastelum. Whittaker is a volume striker who works with excellent combinations and cardio to grind opponents.

Whittaker's main issue in the first fight was his aggressiveness. He got caught trying to pressure Adesanya too much, which ultimately led to the knockout in the second. I think he will be much more patient in his approach this time around, which gives him a better shot at reclaiming the title.

The pick I am taking on the main event will be the fight to go the distance. Adesanya has gone the distance in four of his six title fights, and since wearing the belt, has usually had a very patient approach. He looks to pick his opponents apart rather than press for a knockout. Whittaker has seen a similar trend, going to the scorecards in five of his last six, with the only finish being his knockout to Adesanya. Whittaker has only been knocked out twice in his 29 fights as a professional, and Adesanya has never been finished as a professional (in MMA). I believe Whittaker will be more patient this time around, and we will see a more technical striking match that will go to the judges.

Main Event Pick

• Fight Goes the Distance (-120) (Bet $120 to Win $100)

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UFC 271 Parlay

With so many wide lines on this card, it brings another opportunity for a parlay. Parlays are a popular bet often when betting on the UFC since there are no spreads and often lines with heavy juice, like this weekend's card. My +283 parlay from the UFC card last week cashed, and I'm looking to replicate a winning parlay for this weekend.

Leg 1: Derrick Lewis inside the distance (-140)

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"The Black Beast" is a dangerous counter striker who has certainly lived up to his nickname. He utilizes his trucks for hands in combination with patience to land his big shot, which more often than not puts his opponent's lights out. Tai Tuivasa is constantly looking for the knockout, throwing strikes heavy on his front foot. This will give Lewis plenty of opportunities for counter shots, and he only needs one to land. Tuivasa is a promising up-and-comer at heavyweight, but Lewis' only loss in his last six is to Ciryl Gane, and I think he gets his 27th win on Saturday.

Leg 2: Casey O'Neill ML (-400)

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Roxanne Modafferi has announced this will be the last fight of her professional career, and she will retire after this weekend. I never like to back fighters in their retirement fight, often because there can be outside emotions and such entering the octagon with them. Modafferi has gone 3-5 in the UFC, with only one of those three wins over a "tough" opponent. She has been in many wars in almost twenty years now of professional fighting, and I think O'Neill will just be too much for her. O'Neill is a young, undefeated up-and-comer who has averaged 5.48 significant strikes per minute and 3.83 takedowns per fifteen minutes in her three UFC appearances so far. She is a very active fighter, and she is insanely strong, with five finishes in only eight professional fights, including four in a row. O'Neill is only improving every time she steps in the octagon, and it appears Modafferi is slowing down. O'Neill should pick up the win Saturday.

Leg 3: Mike Mathetha - "Blood Diamond" ML (+190)

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Usually, I would not take an underdog with this line, but I'm making an exception this weekend. "Blood Diamond," or Mike Mathetha, will make his UFC debut this weekend in the opening prelim bout on the card. You might be wondering how someone is debuting in the UFC with only three professional MMA fights under his belt, but it is his connection to City Kickboxing. Mathetha is a close training partner with Adesanya, which is some pretty good company. Mathetha has been a professional kickboxer for about seven years now, and his skillset has grabbed the attention of many. This is no surprise, though, as UFC fighters signed from City Kickboxing have had major success in the UFC. I am referring to the #2 and #3 pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC, Alexander Volkanovski and Israel Adesanya. This is one of the best gyms in MMA, and Mathetha is one of their biggest prospects. I think this line is overly inflated by Mathetha's small record, as newer fighters are often overlooked. City Kickboxing will see a successful weekend at UFC 271, and I believe Blood Diamond will start that off early.

UFC 271 Parlay Picks

3-Leg Parlay (+520): (Bet $100 to Win $520)

• Derrick Lewis inside the distance (-140)
• Casey O'Neill ML (-400)
• "Blood Diamond" ML (+190)

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