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UFC 271 predictions and picks for Saturday's Pay-Per-View event. MMA handicapper, Dan Tom, breaks down his best picks and parlays ahead of UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2.

UFC 271 Predictions: Best Bets and Favorite Plays for Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

Make sure you check out the latest UFC 271 odds

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UFC 271 Main Event Breakdown

The main event for UFC 271 features an interesting rematch for the middleweight belt between Israel Adesanya (-290) and Robert Whittaker (+230).

It's a tricky fight to call, and an even trickier fight to bet.

Although I suspect that this fight will go long given the potential patience and adjustments of a rematch, both men have the power to abruptly stop the other with hard counters, making totals a tough sell.

This volatility is represented in the betting favorite's paths to victory, as both Adesanya "by decision" and "inside the distance" are currently priced at +150. I officially picked Whittaker to use jabs, low kicks and takedowns to counter Adesanya's stylings, but I don't recommend anyone following me off of that cliff.

That said, if you do like anything on the underdog side of the equation, then I suggest waiting until fight day for maximum inflation on the favorite.

UFC 271 Parlay Pick

  • Andrei Arlovski/Jared Vanderaa "over 2.5 rounds" (-210)
  • Kyler Phillips/Marcelo Rojo "under 2.5 rounds" (-170)

2-Leg Parlay @ +134 (Bet $100 to win $134)

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a unique chalk pairing of totals that could produce a solid plus number on the payout.

For my first leg, I elected to go with the over (2.5 rounds) in the Andrei Arlovski and Jared Vaderaa fight.

Although this over is admittedly serving as somewhat of a hedge on a money line play I have on Andrei Arlovski (that I got at a discounted price of -150), I couldn't help but incorporate a total angle on a fight that I see going the distance.

Vanderaa may not have a ton of decisions to his name, but the American heavyweight offers a higher-volume kickboxing style that should compliment Arlovski's nicely. That said, there is ultimately a sizeable gap in both skills and experience, as I suspect that Arlovski's jabs and counters should see him through to the scorecards.

For my second leg, I decided to take a shot on the under (2.5 rounds) in the Kyler Phillips and Marcelo Rojo fight.

Despite initially having higher faith in my Phillips pick, I ended up respecting Rojo's chances a lot more after looking at the tape.

Rojo is a skilled striker who can attack at multiple levels and ranges. The Argentine also has shown improved takedown defense over the years, as it typically takes well-timed shots to ground him. Luckily for Phillips, he has a solid level-changing double to accompany his accurate right hands (both coming forward and off the counter).

But with Phillips also being a bit of a wildman by nature, I have a hard time trusting him not to tire or compromise himself in the process. I'll stick with my official pick of Phillips by submission, but the under is likely solid insurance here.

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UFC 271 Underdog Pick

Douglas Silva de Andrade @ +170 (Bet $100 to win $170)

Although Sergey Morozov came through in his last contest opposite Khalid Taha, I don't believe that the native of Kazakhstan should be favored here.

Perhaps it's his Russian-sounding last name that's garnering hype from the betting market, but I was surprised to see the bookmakers hang a plus number on Douglas Silva de Andrade in this spot.

Andrade may be the older man, but the Brazilian is an athletic powerhouse who has only lost to top-tier talent. Add in the fact that Andrade will have the larger octagon to work within, and I'll take a stab at the superior striker with an experience edge for the price listed above.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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