Feb 17 2022, 8:42am | 10 min read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Walker vs. Hill

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UFC Fight Night predictions and picks. MMA handicapper Christian Broughton has locked in a +500 play as his best bet for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill.

ANALYSIS

Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Prediction

Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan

Main Card Opener - Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:15 p.m. EST.

All 11 of Abdul Razak Alhassan’s wins have come via 1st round knockout.
Joaquin Buckley has 3 KO/TKO losses to his name, 2 of which came in the 1st round (per Tapology.com).

This fight should be absolutely wild for as long as it lasts.

On one side we’ve got Abdul Razak Alhassan, once a name feared by all as perhaps the deadliest knockout artist in the welterweight division, but due to a lengthy spell on the side-lines, is now thought to be a fringe middleweight fighter whose time has been and gone. I can see why this became the common perception of him, following an 0-3 skid on his return to fighting, but after his most recent performance, a 17-second head kick KO of Alessio Di Chirico, I have faith that the Alhassan of old has returned.

Now, this may come across as recency bias, but even without the Di Chirico KO, I’d still defend the line we’re getting on Alhassan’s round 1 prop here. He’s always been a murderer early in fights, and although he will yield finishing chances later in the fight too, a round 1 stoppage still remains by far his strongest path to victory.

Joaquin Buckley is a talented and dangerous young fighter in his own right, but unlike Alhassan, he’s shown a tendency to get put away by strikes. Even just over a year ago, he was stopped by the aforementioned Alessio Di Chirico, who’s a fighter not renowned for his knockout power.

This will be a great watch, as I fully expect both men to meet in the middle and trade. Buckley may look to be the one fighting on the outside, but with Alhassan’s forward pressure and aggression, I see this turning into a phonebooth brawl. With this, I lean heavily in favor of Alhassan as the more durable fighter, with greater power. Alhassan winning this fight in the later rounds or on the scorecards are potential outcomes, but given what his moneyline and inside the distance/KO props are, I much prefer leaning into the variants and taking a big swing on his round 1 prop, as I see it as holding disproportionately large value compared to the other bets I’ve mention. If, however, you like to implement a more risk-averse strategy and are looking to back Alhassan in some capacity, I don’t think you can go too far wrong with diversifying your play between him in round 1 (+500), inside the distance (+220), and moneyline (+130) (best odds).

Joaquin Buckley vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan Pick

Bet of the Card: (2u) Abdul Razak Alhassan to Win in Round 1@ +500 (to Return 12 Units)

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Stephanie Egger Prediction

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Stephanie Egger

Preliminary Card - (W) Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 5:45 p.m. EST.

Stephanie Egger will benefit from a 1-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage over Jessica-Rose Clark (per UFCStats.com).

Stephanie Egger hasn’t set the world alight over the course of her brief 8-fight MMA career, but even at 33 years of age, I still see enough from her to think that she can establish herself as a decent fighter within the thin UFC women’s bantamweight division. She’s strong and physical, has a strong background in judo, and has shown that she’s got killer instinct, as supported by 5 of her 6 wins coming inside the distance.

Jessica-Rose Clark (JRC) is no pushover, and since her Invicta FC days, she’s only really been defeated by notable opposition. She boasts a fairly well-rounded skills set, with a wrestling game that can often prove pivotal against fighters who are similarly matched to her on the feet.

I understand why JRC is the betting favorite, as she is the more known commodity at this point, but stylistically I don’t see how she can be a justified 2-to-1 fav’ against someone who poses the problems that Egger does. The size and strength of Egger will be a task in and of itself, but combining that with her judo, it could prove difficult to take her down, and even more so to land in top position. Furthermore, Egger also has experience in BJJ, and has competed at the ADCC World Championships, with her taking nonother than Gabi Garcia to a decision (per Tapology.com). Her ground game may not be elite-elite, but it sure is on a level above your average women’s bantamweight fighter, and it could prove fight-ending if underestimated.

All in all, this should be a fairly tight fight wherever it takes place. Egger’s height and reach advantages should keep the striking competitive, and it’s difficult to tell how much success JRC will be able to have with her wrestling, given that her grappling isn’t comparable to the level of Tracy Cortez’, who we’ve previously seen out-wrestle Egger. If the fight hits the mat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either lady in top control, but wherever Egger ends up, I’d expect her to be the more proactive fighter, and the one to yield the greater threat of finishing the fight. So, for these reasons, it’s a mandatory shot on the ‘dog in what I see being a close fight in all realms. I’m taking Stephanie Egger’s moneyline at +175.

Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Stephanie Egger Pick

PICK: (1u) Stephanie Egger Moneyline @ +175 (to Return 2.75 Units)

Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction

Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill

Main Event - Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.

All 4 of Johnny Walker’s UFC wins have come via round 1 KO/TKO.
Johnny Walker has been finished in 4 of his 6 losses (per Sherdog.com).

I have to admit, I am seriously impressed with Jamahal Hill. The way he tore through Jimmy Crute in his last fight was unreal, and if he could win in that fashion against someone tough, durable, and well-rounded, then this man shouldn’t have too much of an issue tearing through Johnny Walker.

Now, don’t get me wrong, Walker is still a dangerous fighter for anyone, but stylistically he’s proved to either by way too wild, or way too passive (the latter thanks to SBG Ireland and John Kavanagh), but I don’t see either style holding up well against the precision, pace, and volume of Hill. It’s difficult to tell which Walker we’re going to see this weekend, although I do think we’ll see a bit of reversion to the wildman we all know and love. This should produce a little more volatility in favor of Walker, as it does play into him being one of biggest early knockout threats around, but it also doesn’t help him avoid getting slept, as he’s also one of the biggest liabilities to get horrifically chinned too.

Ultimately, I like Hill to get the finish in this fight. If Walker goes ballistic early looking for the knockout, then that should help his winning chances, but it won’t deny too much value to Hill’s chances of winning inside the distance, as his edge in durability and technical striking should reign successful most of the time. And, if Walker continues to fight with a more controlled style, I expect to see Hill’s more calculated and higher-volume range-striking, slowly breakdown Walker, and eventually causing him to misstep and get put away. In addition to my Jamahal Hill inside the distance bet, I’m also taking a small play on Johnny Walker round 1 KO/TKO, as I believe it holds value and offers a nice hedge in case of a crazy first round.

Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill Pick

PICK: (1u) Jamahal Hill Inside the Distance @ -138 (to Return 1.727 Units)
PICK: (0.2u) Johnny Walker via Round 1 KO/TKO @ +900 (to Return 2 Units)

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill / UFC on ESPN+ 59 / UFC Vegas 48 / #UFCVegas48

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, February 19th, 2022

Start Time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST, Prelims: 4 p.m. EST.

Where To Watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelim Card on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill