UFC Fight Night Predictions: Walker vs. Hill Picks, Parlay, and Best Bets for UFC Vegas 48
UFC Fight Night Predictions: Walker vs. Hill Picks, Parlay, and Best Bets for UFC Vegas 48
With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.
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UFC Fight Night Main event
Johnny Walker vs. Jamahal Hill
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The newly-minted main event for UFC Vegas 48 features a fun light heavyweight showdown between Johnny Walker (+195) and Jamahal Hill (-240).
Although this betting line is a little too wide for my liking, I don't disagree with who is designated as the favorite. Hill is a skilled southpaw striker with a more consistent overall process, as I'm picking him to win by a first-round knockout (assuming he's able to pressure Walker to the fence).
Walker, who is officially 2-2 against UFC-level southpaws, has a propensity to play along the fence to his own detriment, as I suspect that trend continues this Saturday.
If you feel like this ends early and are looking for some action, then perhaps consider looking at the under 2.5 rounds at plus money. That said, I caution anyone looking to lay serious money on a volatile fight that I'll be avoiding, personally.
UFC Fight Night Parlay
Kyle Daukaus (-260) + Jessica-Rose Clark (-175) (+117) (Bet $100 to Win $117)
As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a simple chalk pairing that could produce a solid plus number on the payout.
For my first leg, I elected to go with Kyle Daukaus, who meets Jamie Pickett in the co-main event.
Despite suffering a bit of an ignominious ending to his last fight, Daukaus has been looking good as of late. I think that Daukaus' size will make Pickett uncomfortable at range, especially with the former heavyweight fighting out of a southpaw stance (as Pickett is officially 0-2 against UFC-level lefties).
Pickett has proven that he can hustle for takedowns in order to squeeze out wins in recent outings, but I'm not sure he'll be able to shoot on a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who loves brabo chokes as much as Daukaus does without paying for it. For that reason, I added Daukaus "inside the distance" at +200 for a potential added bonus.
For my second leg, I decided to take a shot Jessica-Rose Clark, who is tasked with taking on Stephanie Egger.
Egger may be the better grappler on paper, but the judo black belt may be at a wrestling disadvantage in this spot. Clark has always had a strong top game, but the Australian fighter has really revamped her training in recent years, particularly in the wrestling department.
Should Clark have the takedown and grappling edge in her back pocket, then I believe she should be able to roll opposite a fighter who looks uncomfortable on her feet (and unimpressive overall). I don't see a finish happening on either end, as I sprinkled on Clark to win by decision at +125 in order to keep with my theme of bulking up parlay legs with potential bonuses.
UFC Fight Night Underdog
Jim Miller (+155) (Bet $100 to Win $155)
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Although you can certainly accuse me of betting with my heart here, I honestly believe that there is value in Jim Miller opposite Nikolas Motta.
Aside from the fact that Miller actually opened as a -185 favorite, the 17-year veteran might actually be more durable than his 29-year-old counterpart. Not only has Motta been knocked out the same amount of times as Miller (despite the American having over three times as many fights), but the Brazilian has also shown a susceptibility to some of Miller's favorite submissions.
Couple that with Motta's propensity to let opposition back into fights, and I justified a stab on Miller's money line at plus money.
If you're looking to spice up the value on a sprinkle, then take a look at Miller "inside the distance" in the neighborhood of +265. Or, if you respect Motta's chances and want another angle or potential hedge, then I'd consider checking out under 2.5 totals if you can find prices south of -150 (which, to me, is playable chalk).
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Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!
And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.