UFC Fight Night Predictions: Makhachev vs. Green Picks, Parlay, and Best Bets for UFC Vegas 49
UFC Fight Night Predictions: Makhachev vs. Green Picks, Parlay, and Best Bets for UFC Vegas 49
With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.
UFC Fight Night Main Event
Islam Makhachev vs. Bobby Green Preview
*The newly-minted main event for UFC Vegas 49 features an interesting catchweight contest between Islam Makhachev (-900) and Bobby Green (+600)*
Although I hate seeing wide lines between two capable combatants, I can't help but agree with Makhachev being a big favorite here. Despite Green being a criminally underrated talent and one of my favorite fighters, it's hard to like his chances on just ten days' notice.
Green may be fresh off an impressive win over Nasrat Haqparast, but the American also took that fight on short notice (roughly four weeks), looking really rough on the scales in doing so.
Outside of chalky over angles, I honestly don't like much in this main attraction and will be looking to make my money elsewhere.
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UFC Fight Night Parlay
1 unit - Jonathan Martinez (-260) and Josiane Nunes (-205) @ +106 (Bet $100 to win $106)
As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a simple chalk pairing that could produce a solid plus number on the payout.
For my first leg, I elected to go with Jonathan Martinez, who meets Alejandro Perez.
Despite the opposing luck that these two men have with the judges, I suspect that Martinez's southpaw stylings will be too much for the veteran in Perez.
Perez may have some serviceable grappling in his back pocket, but I don't think it will come into play given how well Martinez has been doing in the wrestling department.
I was tempted to sprinkle on Martinez by decision (which currently sits in the neighborhood of +140), but I don't want to tempt fate or further expose myself beyond the unit that I typically lay on my parlays.
For my second leg, I decided to take a shot on Josiane Nunes, who welcomes Ramona Pascual to the UFC.
Pascual is a former featherweight who is now training in Las Vegas, but I suspect that she'll be outmatched by a more powerful striker in Nunes.
Nunes, akin to Jessica Andrade or John Lineker, is a thick-set Brazilian powerhouse who loves to work the body. Add in the fact that Pascual appears to be a do-or-die fighter who is taking this fight on short notice, and I ended up sprinkling a quarter unit on "Nunes wins in round 2" at +450.
UFC Fight Night Prop Play
.75 units - Gregory Rodrigues "inside the distance" @ +120 (Bet $100 to win $120)
Despite originally looking to play the under in what is ultimately a violent fight on paper, I ended up sticking with a side and taking an angle at plus money (as I found it very hard to lay any sort of chalk on this fight).
Gregory Rodrigues' opponent, Armen Petrosyan, is definitely a dangerous striker who could separate "Robocop" from his senses before the final bell. That said, Petrosyan has also been shown to be susceptible to knockouts at a lower level (as he's only been doing martial arts since the age of 20).
Add in the fact that Rodrigues is an accoladed Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who shows legit striking skills and knockout power, and I can't help but take a shot on an offensive powerhouse that should win this fight at a slightly higher probability than his current line suggests.
Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!
And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.