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UFC Vegas 49 Makhachev vs. Green prediction and pick. Ben Rajavuori breaks down the main event for UFC Vegas 49, including a +400 prop on the main event, and then gives his favorite parlay pieces to pay out a nice return.

UFC Vegas 49 Preview and Parlay: Main Event Pick and a +511 Parlay for UFC Vegas 49

The UFC is back again for the fourth straight week with a late-notice addition for the main event. The main event was initially scheduled to be Islam Makhachev vs. Beneil Dariush, but Dariush suffered an injury, so now here we are with Bobby Green stepping in to take on the surging Makhachev. Islam Makhachev (21-1) is currently on a nine-fight win streak and is looking at a potential title shot with a win here. Bobby Green (29-12-1) is a UFC vet who finds himself on his own win streak, most recently knocking off Nasrat Haqparast only two weeks ago.

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Makhachev vs. Green Prediction

To be blunt, I'm not giving Green much of a chance here. Neither are the books. Makhachev is currently a -900 favorite, meaning you have to bet $900 to win just $100. There's almost no value in betting on Makhachev straight up at this price, but I do think he gets a dominant win here (shocking, I know). My favorite play to get value from this main event is to go with Makhachev's KO prop. The odds currently sit around +400 for a knockout from Makhachev, and I love those odds over the juiced submission prop.

Green hasn't been finished many times, only getting stopped in four of his 42 professional fights. However, this is a different level of fighter for him and maybe the best grappler he will have faced in his career. Green has shown excellent takedown defense, stuffing 72% of opponents' attempts in his UFC fights. I'm sure Green and everyone else thinks Makhachev will take him down, which means he will probably not keep his hands high, though he usually doesn't anyway. Green tends to keep his lands low, firing strikes from his hip, and with Makhachevs speed and ability to cut off the cage, a KO isn't out of the question tonight. Green also has good submission defense, so if Makhachev does take him down, he could finish it with ground and pound rather than a submission. To get 4-to-1 odds on a fight that will most likely end early, I like the value for the finish to be a KO over the juicy submission line.

Makhachev vs. Green Pick

Pick: Makhachev by KO/TKO @ +400 (Bet $100 to win $400)

UFC Vegas 49 Parlay Pick

UFC parlays have been doing well, as we're 3-1 on them in 2022 so far. Tonight, I have another one with good odds with a high chance of hitting.

Leg 1: Arman Tsarukyan/Joel Alvarez Finishes Inside the Distance

No matter who wins this one, I see a finish from either side for the win. Tsarukyan loves to walk his opponent back, aggressively cutting off the cage and taking them down. Ironically, that is basically the best-case scenario for Alvarez. Alvarez is a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master who has yet to secure a takedown in the UFC yet has two submission wins in his five overall wins in the promotion. Alvarez is a great defensive grappler who can reverse positions quickly. It's also worth mentioning that Alvarez has a 100% finish rate as a professional, with 19 stoppages in his 19 wins. He has gone to a decision in one of his 21 fights. This is primarily because of his fighting style, which is very aggressive. Even if this fight does stay standing, a knockout is still live for either corner. Tsarukyan has beautiful counter shots, and Alvarez is an aggressive, long striker who likes to push when his opponents start to back up. The submission is live for Alvarez on the ground, and either side can put it out on the feet. It could be Tsarukyan with a counter shot when Alvarez over-aggresses or Alvarez walking Tsarukyan back and overwhelming him with his 77" reach and pressure en-route to a knockout. This one shouldn't go to the judges.

Leg 2: Josiane Nunes Wins Inside the Distance

Josiane Nunes had two scheduled opponents who both had to pull out, leaving the third opponent Ramona Pascual, who will step in on only eight days notice to take on the rising star. Nunes is a very short featherweight who holds all her bulk and power in her hands. Nunes is 8-1 with seven knockouts, including a first-round knockout in her UFC debut. Both fighters have a Muay Thai background, but Nunes imposes a more significant threat for her usual game plan. She walks opponents down and closes the distance quickly, which should overwhelm a fighter on short notice making their UFC debut. Pascual does not have the best striking defense and utilizes little-to-no head movement. Not a promising fact against a KO specialist with heavy hands like Nunes. I think Nunes has the advantage no matter where the fight goes, but I don't see Pascual taking her down with Nunes size, meaning this one should stay standing. It will only be a matter of time from there before Nunes lands her shot.

Leg 3: Terrance Mckinney ML

It's almost impossible not to root for Terrance Mckinney. Even outside the UFC, he's a comeback story, turning his life around after a near-death experience with hallucinogens and alcohol. In his MMA career, the same turnaround has happened. Mckinney fought at featherweight for most of his career before notching two losses in a row, sparking a move up to lightweight. That was a great decision for him, as he's gone 4-0 since then with all first-round knockouts. It's not only Mckinney's hands that Ziam has to face because Mckinney is a skilled wrestler as well, but he hasn't had to go that route in a while because of his quick knockouts. Mckinney will be the best wrestler Ziam has faced in the UFC yet, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Mckinney go to his wrestling game in this fight. Ziam isn't the best defensive grappler and has been taken down at least once in every one of his UFC fights. If Mckinney isn't out-scoring Ziam on the mat, though, I still give him the edge on the feet, as he's found his comfort zone in his new weight class. Mckinney is an accurate striker, landing almost 60% of his strikes, and they come with lots of power, thanks to the extra weight Mckinney has on him now. Ziam is a rising prospect who I think has lots of upside in the future, as he's still improving, but Mckinney has a lot going for him in this one, and the difference in his fighting since moving weight classes can't be overlooked. Even though it seems like the entire world is betting on Mckinney today, I will be joining them and hope that it's not mushed.

UFC Vegas 49 Parlay

3-Leg +511 UFC Parlay (Bet $100 to win $511)

  • Leg 1: Arman Tsarukyan/Joel Alvarez Finishes Inside the Distance
  • Leg 2: Josiane Nunes Wins Inside the Distance
  • Leg 3: Terrance Mckinney ML

Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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