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LightningLocks breaks down UFC 272: Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal and gives his best bet for the main event prelims.

UFC 272 Prediction: Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal Undercard Best Bet

This coming Saturday will see the return of esteemed meme lord Colby “Chaos” Covington as he finally takes on the always game(bred) Jorge Masvidal in what's frivolously being billed as “THE grudge match for the ages.” Stereotypical catchphrases aside, this week's pay-per-view might be geared more towards the uninformed and laidback portion of fight fans in general, but that doesn't mean the more degenerative demographic can't hone in on some spots that will absolutely smack financially. 

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Listed below is my absolute favorite move of the entire card, whether you lay 10 bucks or 10 thousand, is the ROI on this maneuver that is guaranteed to be bountiful.

Pick: Tim Elliot/Tagir Ulanbekov over 2.5 -150 (Bet $150 to Win $100)

To almost kickstart the card we have Tim “The Awkward” Elliot going toe to toe with Tagir "The Decision Phenom” Ulanbekov. Now what we got here is very binary in terms of stylistic matchups. On one neck of the pond, you have your traditional Dagestani grappler in Ulanbekov, who utilizes the attributes he possesses to emulate his best Khabib impression in order to enforce his will on the wrestler’s unsuspecting victims. 

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Granted not as fluid or bombastic as “The Eagle,” Tagir nevertheless will have an immense smothering top game to implement on the guard of the passive Tim Elliot, who likes to play on the bottom in the thick of battle more often than not. The former UFC title challenger will have the striking advantage although as I believe he has honed his previously questionable standup at Glory MMA to new and egregious heights, with some of these improvements being on full display against Jordan Espinoza and even in his very last bout against Matteus Nichalou in an ultimately losing effort. 

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So with one getting the edge in the fisticuff department while the other having the lean in the wrestling, how exactly does this fight play out at the end of the day? Ultimately, I've elected to play it somewhat safe and decided to utilize the over 2.5 total on the bout instead of backing a single side. Mr. Ulanbekov has decision victories in 8 out of his 13 pro wins, which screams to me that although he is dominating his opponents with the grappling, he is choosing position over submissions, something that favors winning minutes instead of weathering opponents.

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Due to that glaring sentiment of a reason I believe Tim is safe from being at a grappling disadvantage, and combine the better line on the over with deleting the prospect of a potential robbery on the scorecards, I believe the over 2.5 is a godsend when targeting this flyweight matchup and for securing the bag this Saturday night. 

BET: Tim Elliot/Tagir Ulanbekov over 2.5 -150 (Bet $150 to Win $100)

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