UFC 272 Predictions and Picks: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

Looking to continue his streak of back-to-back months of profit to start the year, our MMA handicapper Christian Broughton sets his sight on this weekend’s PPV card, UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal
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UFC 272 Predictions and Picks: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

Marina Rodriguez vs. Xiaonan Yan Prediction

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Preliminary Card - Strawweight (115lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:10 p.m. EST.

Over the course of her UFC career, Xiaonan Yan has averaged more significant strikes landed per minute than Marina Rodriguez (5.95 vs. 5.05), whilst posting a better sig. strike defense  (61% vs. 57%), as well as a higher takedown average/accuracy (0.92/75% vs. 0.22/67%) (per UFCStats.com).

I understand why Rodriguez is the favorite in this spot, given her, last 2 fights have been main event wins, whereas Yan is coming off of a stoppage loss to Carla Esparza in her fight. And, although I agree with the favoritism of Rodriguez, this line is just simply too wide.

Yes, getting put away by Carla Esparza is not a good look, but coming into that fight, Yan was looked upon as an immediate title contender and a unique challenge due to her relentless fighting style. Rodriguez will have the technical striking edge, but Yan throws with greater volume, forward pressure, and offers up the threat of mixing in takedowns, which has proven to be Rodriguez’s kryptonite as she can struggle to get back to her feet.

So, although I do agree Rodriguez should perhaps be the betting favorite here, I just can’t justify how she is this big of a fav’. And for that reason, I’m taking the shot on Yan at the over 2-to-1 ‘dog, and I feel pretty good about it.

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Marina Rodriguez vs. Xiaonan Yan Pick

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Devonte Smith vs Ludovit Klein Prediction

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Early Preliminary Card - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 6:40 p.m. EST.

Devonte Smith and Ludovit Klein combined for a total of 35 pro fights, of which, 33 have ended inside the distance (per Tapology.com).  

The opening leg of my 2-fight parlay is on this fight to NOT go to decision.

Both Smith and Klein are explosive strikers and relentless finishers. Smith has shown that he’s generally a kill or be killed fighter, with all of his wins and losses coming inside the distance. Klein has a marginally more patient approach than Smith, but with Smith’s aggression, power, and athleticism, I can see this drawing the wild fighting style out of Klein and creating an all-action fight, for as long as this one lasts.

The fight doesn’t go the distance is currently priced at around -175, indicative of a 63.6% outcome, which feels pretty conservative given that I have this one ending inside the distance at over a 70% clip.

Devonte Smith vs Ludovit Klein Pick

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Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal Prediction

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Main Event - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:45 a.m. EST.

Kamaru Usman handled Jorge Masvidal with relative ease in both of their fights, and despite Usman being a slightly better version of Covington, he does pose almost the exact same problems for Masvidal.

The narrative of this fight (beyond all the “grudge match” stuff), is that if Masvidal is able to keep the fight standing, then he has got the means to make this fight competitive… and not to mention, the threat that he could just highlight reel KO Covington as he did to Ben Askren. And, although this holds some truth, it’s just not that simple.

Covington is one of the very best fighters in the world right now. He’s a nightmare at range, in clinch situations against the cage, and when grappling. This isn’t a “Masvidal is the better striker, so he’ll win minutes that they spend on the feet” situation. Covington’s sheer volume and range striking is a problem for anyone, even when out-matched technically. Now, combine that with the ever-present danger that he could look to change levels and engage in the grappling at any moment (an area of the fight that he can dominate anyone not called Kamaru Usman in), and it makes for an insanely tough outing.

I will give Masvidal the credit that he does have decent cardio, fairly decent takedown defense, and a great mindset for fighting, but he’s just really outmatched in this one. He does of course have the capability to end the fight in an instant, and with a career-best showing, he could make this closer than I foresee, but at around -310, I’m happy to bank on that not happening.

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Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal Pick

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Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira Prediction

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Main Card - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:45 p.m. EST.

6 of Alex “Cowboy” Oliveira’s 11 pro losses have come via submission (per Tapology.com).

This is a superb fight, and perhaps one of the best fights against a notable name Kevin Holland could have asked for to make his UFC welterweight debut.

Kevin Holland feels a little bit overpriced at his -305 moneyline (best odds), given the volatile nature of two action-fighters colliding, as well as Holland’s suspect takedown defense. That said, I do see some clear value in Holland’s submission prop.

Oliveira has folded over at the first sign of adversity in 2 of his last 3 bouts, where he succumbed to his opponent’s pressure and gave up chokes, both of which were in the first round. Yes, he did show more grit and resilience against Niko Price in his last fight, but I’m not willing to believe that Oliveira has fully shaken his tendency to look for an early way out when fights aren’t going his way.

For this reason, I really like Holland to land the submission, and I think it could come early or late in this fight. His cardio has largely looked strong throughout his UFC tenure, and with Oliveira now seemingly on the decline, his cardio could just drop off a cliff, should the fight go into its latter half.

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Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira Pick

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal / UFC 272: Colby vs. Jorge / UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Masvidal / #UFC272

Location & Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, March 5th, 2022

Start Time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims: 8 p.m. EST. Early Prelims: 6 p.m. EST.

Where To Watch: Main Card on PPV, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+, Prelim Card on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC 272: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

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UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Full Fight Card Predictions

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UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Main Event Prediction

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Main Card Predictions

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Prelim Card Predictions

  • Lightweight (155lbs): Jalin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey – Turner via KO/TKO
  • (W) Strawweight (115lbs): Marina Rodriguez vs. Xiaonan Yan – Yan via Decision
  • Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Nick Negumereanu – Nzechukwu via Decision
  • (W) Flyweight (125lbs): Maryna Moroz vs. Mariya Agapova – Agapova via Decision

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Early Prelim Card Predictions

  • Featherweight (145lbs): Brian Kelleher vs. Umar Nurmagomedov – Nurmagomedov via Decision
  • Flyweight (125lbs): Tim Elliott vs. Tagir Ulanbekov – Ulanbekov via Decision
  • Lightweight (155lbs): Devonte Smith vs. Ľudovít Klein – Klein via KO/TKO
  • Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Dustin Jacoby vs. Michał Oleksiejczuk – Jacoby via Decision

*Fight card, bout order, and the number of fights subject to change.

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A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.

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