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MMA analyst and handicapper, Dan Tom, breaks down his best bets for UFC Vegas 272, as well as his analysis of the main event, Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal.

UFC 272 Predictions and Best Bets: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

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UFC 272 Main Event

Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

The main event for UFC 272 features a grudge match between Colby Covington (-335) and Jorge Masvidal (+260).

Click Here for Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal odds

With the line inflating since it opened, you could argue that we are starting to enter "dog or pass" territory.

Although I'm officially picking Covington to win by decision (which is still in the neighborhood of -120, for those looking to support him at a discounted price), I believe that Masvidal is a live dog in this spot.

Not only does this matchup carry the intangibles of foes who are former training partners, but Masvidal has gotten much better stymying wrestlers in recent years. That said, I still think he ends up giving away too much time against the fence for me to confidently back him here, as I'll be looking to make my money elsewhere on the card.

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UFC 272 Parlay

Serghei Spivac (-200) + Dustin Jacoby (-195) (+126) (Bet $100 to Win $126) (1-unit)

As I always say, parlaying is a mad man's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a semi-bold chalk pairing that could produce a solid plus number on the payout.

For my first leg, I elected to go with the rare heavyweight leg in Serghei Spivac, who faces Greg Hardy.

Despite Greg Hardy being the more popular side (for all the wrong reasons) at plus money, the former NFL player has left a lot to be desired in the cage. More importantly, Spivac is a solid step-up for Hardy, as the Moldovan is a well-rounded martial artist that's been training since the age of seven.

Unless Hardy is able to knock Spivac out with the perfect shot early, then I suspect Spivak takes him down and beats him into submission by the second round. For that reason, I also sprinkled on "Spivac inside the distance" (+120) and "Spivac by submission" (+300) to help bolster this leg with a potential bonus.

For my second leg, I decided to take a shot on Dustin Jacoby, who meets Michal Oleksiejczuk.

Although Jacoby is technically 0-2 against UFC-level southpaws in the octagon, those defeats came over a decade ago when the American was just a fresh-faced kid on his first stint with the organization. Since then, Jacoby has matured into a more well-rounded fighter with a clear focus on kickboxing.

In fact, when facing southpaws like UFC middleweight Karl Roberson under the Glory kickboxing banner, Jacoby looked to have a solid feel for fighting lefties. And in his recent fight with John Allan, Jacoby showed off a solid southpaw stance of his own whenever his opponent tried to switch up on him.

Oleksiejczuk packs a nasty left hand that he launches to the body, but his bad decision-making and suspect gas tank make it hard for me to like his chances here. And if you're not feeling this leg or the other, then feel free to replace either with Rafael dos Anjos (-190) – whom I'm already on as a straight play.

UFC 272 Underdog Pick

Jamie Mullarkey (+135) (Bet $100 to Win $135) (1.3-unit)

Click Here for Mullarkey vs Turner Odds

Perhaps it's because Jamie Mullarkey made me some nice coin in his last couple of outings, but the Australian lightweight is the sort of dog that I like to back at the betting window.

Even though I'm a fan of the southpaw stylings of Jalin Turner, I suspect that Mullarkey's boxing and takedowns could seriously disrupt the American en route to getting out-hustled. Mullarkey is also an avid finisher who wields a killer left hook that I see serving him well in this fight (should he not get caught dipping into a knee first).

Ultimately, I don't think the line should be getting wider in a spot like this, so I'll take a shot on the proven dog who is riding high.

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Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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