UFC 272 Best Bets: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal, Smith vs Klein, and More

The three best bets that you should make for UFC 272. Our guy Ben Rajavouri has you covered for tonight's action.
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UFC 272 Best Bets: Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal, Smith vs Klein, and More

Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

A long-awaited rivalry match will take place once Colby Covington (16-3) and Jorge Masvidal (35-15) enter the octagon tomorrow night. These guys used to be close friends and training partners, and even roommates for a while. They told stories about how they would move the couch in the living room so they could wrestle each other. Those pleasant times are long gone, as Covington has left American Top Team due to tensions in the gym, and the two are now bitter rivals. So who is set to win this grudge match?

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I'm not too keen on a side for this one, given the odds, although we did take Covington in the parlay. If Masvidal can stuff the takedowns, he can win the striking exchanges, but to bank on him stuffing Covington's attempts for 25 minutes isn't a good bet. I think Covington will be able to frustrate him with his constant pressure and grappling. So while I believe Covington does win, there's no straight bet I like for either side. However, the total is intriguing.

Both Covington and Masvidal are warriors and are incredibly durable. In 20 UFC fights, Masvidal has been finished once by Kamaru Usman. In 14 UFC fights, Covington has only been finished twice, and one was by Kamaru Usman. These are two formidable men who go to the judges quite often. Covington has gone the distance in 50% of his UFC fights, and Masvidal has gone the distance in 60% of his UFC fights.

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Given how durable he is, I don't see Covington finishing Masvidal here, even if he dominates him on the ground. Masvidal has good submission defense and a durable chin. Covington's fighting style also lines up with this because he is more of a grinder. He likes to pace the fight and wear on his opponents. So as good as I think the fight will be, I think this one goes to the judges. The only way I don't see a decision win here is if Masvidal lands a hard counter shot on one of Covington's entries and knocks him out (a good hedge spot for Covington ML is Masvidal by KO).

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal Pick

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Ludovit Klein vs Devonte Smith

This pick I actually played in the parlay as well, but it's one of my favorite plays on the card for tomorrow, so I'll be playing it straight too. The line has risen since I played it in the parlay from the article a few days ago, but I still love the play at these odds. You can see the full breakdown in that article here, but I'll summarize it shortly.

There have only been two fights decided by the judges in 45 combined fights for Ludovit Klein (17-4) and Devonte Smith (11-3). Devonte Smith is an aggressive striker who lets his hands fly, and he combines that with a bad chin. Smith has been knocked out in two of his last three, and there's no doubt in my mind that Klein can also put his lights out.

Klein has eight knockout wins of his own but is also a skilled grappler. In my eyes, this fight only ends two ways: Smith finds the knockout with his incredibly powerful hands, or Klein out grapples Smith and finds his back for the choke. Both these guys fight at an incredible pace, and I'd be stunned to see this one go the distance.

Ludovit Klein vs Devonte Smith Pick

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Greg Hardy vs Serghei Spivac

Our high plus-odds props have been going well in our UFC bets, so let's keep the train rolling. This one takes us to the heavyweight division. Ex-NFL player Greg Hardy (7-4) will take on Serghei Spivac (13-3) in the main card opener.

Greg Hardy is pretty much a knockout or bust. He does have two decision wins in the UFC, but those were over much lower-level opponents than Spivac, and Hardy faded hard after the first round and a half. This one is simple for me and doesn't require much explanation. Five of Hardy's seven wins as a professional have been by first-round knockout. Two of Spivac's three losses in the UFC are by first-round knockout. Hardy was almost 300 pounds and had to cut about 30 pounds to make the heavyweight non-title limit of 266.

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He is an absolute beast with athletic hands that will put you to sleep with one shot. Hardy reminds me of a less polished Derrick Lewis in that he loads up his hooks looking for the knockout, which tires him out quickly. This fight for me is either Hardy by first-round knockout or Spivac in round three or by decision. I like the odds more for the former, but Spivac in round three is also a nice look at +700. Let's take another stab at a high odds prop tomorrow, and I hope you guys take this one with me.

Greg Hardy vs Serghei Spivac Pick

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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