UFC Vegas 50 Predictions and Prop Picks: The Best Value You Can Find For Saturday's Card

UFC Vegas 50 predictions and picks. Handicapper Ben Rajavuori breaks down his favorite plays for tonight's card and gives us his picks, including a +990 play you definitely don't want to miss.
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UFC Vegas 50 Predictions and Prop Picks: The Best Value You Can Find For Saturday's Card

Magomed Ankalaev (16-1) is quickly building his resume in the UFC, riding a seven-fight win streak coming into tonight. Thiago Santos (22-9) is a UFC veteran looking to stop the hype train that is Magomed Ankalaev. Santos has four losses in his last five fights, and there is speculation whether the knee injury he suffered against Jon Jones back in 2019 has ever fully recovered. If Ankalaev wins this, he surely gets at least the number one contender and possibly a title shot.

I don't see too much value on either side or even the total, so there's no play on the main event for me this week. I think Ankalaev will win just like 99% of MMA fans, but with this high of a line, there's no good bet.

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Bruno Silva vs. Alex Pereira Prediction

The first play of the day here will bring us to the last prelim match of the night. This is also my lone two-unit play for the night. Simply put, this fight should be absolute fireworks. Alex Pereira (4-1) is the only man who has ever knocked out Israel Adesanya as a professional fighter. He is only 4-1 in MMA, but all four wins since his debut have been knockouts. The man has power, but so does his counterpart across the octagon tonight. Bruno Silva (22-6) is not to be overlooked, as 19 of his 22 wins have come by way of knockout, including all of his last seven wins. There was some thought about whether Silva might try to make Pereira uncomfortable with grappling, but he made it clear in an interview on media day that he is looking to stand and go shot-for-shot with Pereira.

“There is no way to make history if you are not brave enough. So you guys are not going to see me fighting like Khabib [Nurmagomedov] or Damian Maia. If I have to, I will, but I’m going to look for another knockout,” Silva said.

This fight essentially will be two men standing in front of each other throwing their hardest shots back and forth. Pereira's power is almost unmatched at middleweight. He was able to knock out a UFC champion who had never been finished before, and even more impressively, with kickboxing gloves. This should be a busy first round fought in a telephone booth. I don't see this one going to round two, but we have a two-and-a-half-minute buffer if it does.

Bruno Silva vs. Alex Pereira Pick

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Sodiq Yusuff vs. Alex Caceres Prop Pick

The prop play for tonight brings us to the main card for an intriguing stylistic matchup between Sodiq Yusuff (11-2) and Alex Caceres (19-12). Caceres finds himself as a dog again, a spot he has cashed in on three times over his five-fight win streak. Across from him will be a talented striker in Sodiq Yusuff.

Simply put, this line feels too high for what, in my opinion, seems to be the primary method of victory for Caceres here. He has a massive grappling advantage in this fight and has an extensive resume in the UFC against some skilled fighters. Yusuff has the edge here on the feet, but it's nothing Caceres hasn't seen before. Caceres is experienced and knows what he has to do to win, and I believe (or at least hope) he knows he has to grapple to win this fight. Yusuff has shown to be uncomfortable with grapplers, even though he has yet to be submitted in his professional career thus far. The opportunities have been there, though. When I taped Yusuff, I saw he had given his back multiple times both on the ground in scrambles and along the fence, putting himself in risky positions that haven't been finished to his luck.

Caceres has the skills and grappling ability to finish Yusuff here. Yusuff has yet to be submitted, which is why I think this line is so high, but Caceres is the most experienced grappler he will have faced yet. I would not be surprised to see Caceres take Yusuff's back tonight and finish him with a rear-naked choke.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Alex Caceres

ROI -8%
NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL
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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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