Mar 24 2022, 11:18am | 9 min read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus

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Last week MMA handicapper Christian Broughton returned over 10 units of profit. Looking to build on that, he now sets his sight on this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus

ANALYSIS

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Blaydes vs. Daukaus

Jennifer Maia vs. Manon Fiorot Prediction

Jennifer Maia vs. Manon Fiorot

Preliminary Card – Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 4:45 p.m. EST.

This is one of the chalkier UFC cards that you’re going to see, and as a result, I find myself drawn to a couple of parlay pieces. The first of which is on the “goes the distance” prop in the Maia vs. Fiorot fight.

Manon Fiorot looks to be the real deal. She’s a fairly polished fighter, albeit with limited experience, and her pace, conditioning, and precision striking is tiers above most of the other fighters in this division. Fiorot has finished 2 of her first 3 fights in the UFC, largely due to her facing weak opposition, and I think that’s still lingering in people’s minds, and as a result, it’s helping us get a solid line on the overs here.

Jennifer Maia has been a mainstay at the top of the women’s flyweight division for a while now, and it’s largely because she is well-rounded and consistent. She isn’t going to set the world alight with anything she does, but as far as core skills go, she’s solid. She will have a clear edge in BJJ against Fiorot, and that is a mild concern when betting the over, but Maia has only attempted 1 submission across her 8 UFC fights, and I don’t see Maia making this a greater focus, no matter how prudent it could be.

All in all, look for this to mainly be a striking battle for 15-minutes, with Fiorot landing the better-quality strikes at a higher clip, whilst Maia walks forward eating the shots and looking relatively unphased throughout.

Jennifer Maia vs. Manon Fiorot Pick

1st Parlay Leg: Fight Goes The Distance @ -195 (Bet $195 to Win $100)

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Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus Prediction

Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus

Main Event - Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:45 p.m. EST.

The second leg of my parlay is on Curtis "Razor" Blaydes' moneyline. Despite his large price tag, the -380 still feels a little cheap for what appears to be a very favorable matchup for the perennial top contender.

For starters, Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers we've ever seen in the heavyweight division, and his depth of 5 round experience, should prove very useful in terms of him finding the correct pace for this fight. His striking, although not the strongest part of his game, is still far from terrible, and I'm not actually convinced that he couldn't beat Chris Daukaus in a striking match, due to his significantly better athleticism, combined with his 1-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage.

Daukaus does throw with some heat, which is a concern given that we’ve seen Blaydes KO'ed in the past. That said, those knockouts came against elite power-hitters, Francis N'Gannou and Derrick Lewis, who are stylistically very different from a volume striker, such as Daukaus.

All things considered, Daukaus' 100% takedown defense within the UFC should easily falter against the strongest grappler he's ever faced. There are some mild worries that he could land that killer one-shot KO early, but given the shots that we've seen put Blaydes away in the past, I think he can take the best Daukaus has to offer. Once on the mat, Blaydes will weigh heavy on top, apply ground'n'pound, which should lead to a stoppage, if not a seriously one-sided decision victory.

Curtis Blaydes vs. Chris Daukaus Pick

2nd Parlay Leg: Curtis Blaydes Moneyline @ -380 (Bet $380 to Win $100)
Bet of the Card – (2.5u) Two-Leg Parlay: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-195) + Curtis Blaydes Moneyline (-380) @ -110 (to Return 4.777 Units) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

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Neil Magny vs. Max Griffin Prediction

Neil Magny vs. Max Griffin

Preliminary Card Headliner - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 6:40 p.m. EST.

Neil Magny is in the conversation for the most consistent fighter in the UFC. His strengths are his length, cardio, clinch game, and distance striking. And he doesn’t really have any weaknesses unless you’re comparing specific areas of his game to specialists, which is where he generally becomes undone. He is remarkably unremarkable as a talent, but over the years, it is this fact that has made him such a profitable fighter for many bettors. He’s rarely going to fight with the urgency to force a finish in his favor, and he’s pretty much going to just edge minutes and rounds, ultimately leading to him taking a clear decision victory.

Oddly enough, Max Griffin is almost like a dollar store version of Magny, only with a little more pop on his punches, and with a tendency to make his fights a little closer than they often need to be. Furthermore, excluding the power factor, Magny just has Griffin out-matched in every field. He’s more physically imposing, his grappling is more effective and refined, and the same can be said about his striking.

Ultimately, I don’t see either man forcing the finish, and I think Magny is good value for the win on the scorecards at around even money. For that reason, I’m going to take his decision prop, and I wouldn’t hate it if people were to look to beef up my 2-leg parlay into a 3-legger with the “goes the distance” prop (-200) in this fight.