Apr 14, 9:35am | 7 mins read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Luque vs. Muhammad 2

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MMA handicapper Christian Broughton has returned a profit on each of the last three UFC events. He now sets his sight on this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad 2.

ANALYSIS

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Luque vs. Muhammad 2

Mounir Lazzez vs. Ange Loosa Prediction

Mounir Lazzez vs. Ange Loosa Odds

Main Card - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:45 p.m. EST.

Mounir Lazzez has had 2 very contrasting outings in the UFC. The first came as he toppled feared UFC veteran, Abdul Razak Alhassan, as a sizable underdog in his debut. And the next, saw him get put away swiftly by another UFC veteran, Warlley Alves, as a decent-sized favorite. Lazzez has some physical attributes, as well as some technical skills, and it’s easy to see what some people like about him. The problem for me, however, is that he’s now 34-years-old, and at this point in his career, he should be the complete article, which he is not. And, on top of this, the way he buckled under Warlley Alves’ early pressure, is a big concern to me.

Ange Loosa doesn’t strike me as a world-beater, but he looks to be calculated, resilient, and capable of fighting to a good game plan. He is taking this fight on short notice but having competed less than two weeks ago against John Howard, who formally fought in the UFC, it’s safe to say that he should be in pretty good shape for this fight. Loosa will be giving up some height and reach here, but I see him as the tougher and more well-rounded fighter, who also trains out of Stanford MMA, with other top-level welterweights (Gilbert Burns, Vicente Luque, Rory MacDonald, Robbie Lawler, and Jason Jackson, to name a few).

This is a fairly large play for me given that both these fighters are still fairly unproven, but I like the intangibles, and the underdog line, on Ange Loosa.

Mounir Lazzez vs. Ange Loosa Pick

Bet of the Card: (3u) Ange Loosa Moneyline @ +172 (to Return 8.16 Units) (Bet $100 to Win $172)

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Devin Clark vs. William Knight Prediction

Devin Clark vs. William Knight Odds

Preliminary Card Headliner– Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:10 p.m. EST.

Despite William Knight significantly missing weight last time out, I’m a bit surprised to see this fight occurring up at heavyweight, as opposed to their regular class of light heavyweight, but nevertheless, here we are.

I see this fight largely playing out one of two ways, either this is going to be an absolute grinding war, with Devin Clark the significantly more likely guy to get his hand raised, or William Knight is going to land one of his hellacious KOs to earn him the victory. My doubts with the latter are, that Knight hasn’t been throwing a lot of volume as of late, and fighting up at heavyweight probably won’t help that, and Clark has been dealing with damage pretty well recently, and not cutting weight, could prove to be an added benefit.

For these reasons, I do see this one going to a decision a decent share of the time. Clark is yet to secure a finish in the UFC, and Knight has only been finished once in his 14-fight career, so providing Clark avoids Knight’s power, the distance prop should prove to be of great value.

Devin Clark vs. William Knight Pick

(2u) Fight Goes The Distance @ -128 (to Return 3.563 Units) (Bet $128 to Win $100)

Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad 2 Prediction

Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad Odds

Main Event - Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:15 p.m. EST.

I don’t have a seriously strong lean on this fight, but I do see a little value on Belal Muhammad’s decision prop. I understand he is improving technically and physically, and that he is now competing in five-round fights, but he has always been, and still remains a calculated, risk-averse, decision fighter. It may not make for the most entertaining viewing experience, but from a betting perspective, it’s generally pretty profitable.

Luque completely destroyed Belal the first time they fought, and although that occurred almost 5.5 years ago, there will still be some lingering bias due to people having already witnessed it. Since then, Belal has been on a 10-1 run (with 1 no contest), with 10 of those 11 fights going onto a decision. In his sole loss over that span, he did get dropped a pair of times by Geoff Neal (per UFCStats.com), but it’s important to note that he still fought onto the final bell.

I like Luque as a fighter, as he is well-rounded, dangerous, and has a good gas tank, but Belal has this smothering style that can nullify those kinds of fighters. It won’t be easy due to these factors and especially given Luque’s submission prowess, but it’s on the cards for Belal, who seems to be improving leaps and bound fight-to-fight.

Ultimately, Luque is tough as hell and has shown to have takedown defense deficiencies, whereas Belal isn’t a ruthless finisher, and he’s going to stick to the game plan of dragging Luque down over and over again, for as long as possible. It’s a dangerous fight, but Belal’s decision prop looks to be disproportionately high given his moneyline chances of victory, and what proportion I have him winning on the scorecards vs. him winning inside the distance. For these reasons, I will be having a little action on Belal Muhammad to win via decision, on what appears to be a generous number.