UFC Fight Night Predictions: Luque vs Muhammad 2 Prop Picks and a +127 Parlay

UFC on ESPN 34 prop picks and parlay for Saturday's card. MMA analyst and handicapper, Dan Tom, breaks down his best bets for UFC on ESPN 34, as well as his analysis of the main event, Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad 2.
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UFC Fight Night Predictions: Luque vs Muhammad 2 Prop Picks and a +127 Parlay

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Oddschecker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

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UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Vicente Luque "inside the distance" @ (+130) (Bet $100 to win $130)

The main event for UFC on ESPN 34 features a potential welterweight war between Vicente Luque (-170) and Belal Muhammad (+150).

Although the first meeting between these two took place over five years ago back at UFC 205, I still suspect that the stylistic dynamic of the matchup remains the same. Luque has traditionally had trouble with superior counter fighters and pressure grapplers, as Muhammad could help recreate the latter given the smaller octagon they'll be competing in this Saturday.

That said, Muhammad has shown to be more allergic to counter strikers since their first fight, making Luque still fit the bill of a bad styles match with his potent hooks and savvy front-chokes. Add in the fact that all of Muhammad's knockdowns come off of left-sided strikes, and I see Luque's patent left hook sparking off another finish before the final bell.

UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Underdog play: Ciao Borralho (+111) (Bet $100 to win $111)

Despite not being blown away by his initial debut on Dana White's Contender Series, I have since come around on Ciao Borralho after revisiting the tape.

More importantly, I suspect that Borralho will offer some solid spoiler potential opposite Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. Even though Omargadzhiev has a solid wrestling and sambo base, he appears to get a bit wild within multiple phases of his game.

Whether he's spamming spins or attempting obvious takedowns with little-to-no setup, I get the feeling that Omargadzhiev is just asking to eat an emphatic counter.

Couple that with Borralho's front-choke savvy and seemingly solid takedown defense (which is probably a nod to him being a national judo champion), and I believe that the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Demian Maia can survive the Russian's early storms en route to either a decision win or flying knee knockout.

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UFC Parlay Pick

1 unit - Pat Sabatini (-520), Mayra Bueno Silva (-500), Miguel Baeza (-170)

3-Leg Parlay @ (+127) (Bet $100 to win $127)

As I always say, parlaying is a madman's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a chalk trio on the main card that could produce a decent plus number on the payout.

For my first leg, I elected to go with Pat Sabatini, who faces T.J. Laramie.

Although Laramie was a well-respected regional talent on the Canadian scene, I suspect that he'll be outgunned by the bigger and superior submission wrestler in Sabatini.

I've been high on the accoladed American since he came into the UFC, as I believe that Sabatini's clinch game and scrambling savvy will be a tough ask for Laramie off of a long layoff. Picking a method for this one feels tricky, so I'll stay away from my usual attempts at lacing parlay legs with potential prop bonuses.

For my second leg, I ended up backing Mayra Bueno Silva, who meets Wu Yunan.

Despite my want for Chinese athletes to do well, I have a hard time picking Wu to win a fight at this level. Even though she'll probably have a slight size and strength edge over Silva, I suspect that the Brazilian will still be the bigger hitter and more dangerous submission threat.

Even if Wu is able to earn stretches of top control en route to the scorecards, I still think that Silva will be both the more effective and impactful fighter.

For my final leg, I decided to ride with Miguel Baeza, who draws Andre Fialho.

Perhaps this selection is a product of a poor pool to pick from, as I was initially going to stay away from this fight. However, after sitting back and researching the matchup, I think that we're getting a discounted price on Baeza due to recency bias driving his stock down.

Baeza sounds to have taken the proper steps in regards to getting his career back on track, as the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is still young with plenty of promise. Fialho has some potent boxing in the pocket, but the native of Portugal's porous kick defense and suspect stamina makes his winning conditions even narrower in this matchup.

Add in the fact that Baeza could get back to his underrated ground game, and I believe that the MMA Masters product has multiple pathways to win against a fighter who is clearly hurtable.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

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MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.

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