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Ben Rajavuori is here to share his best bets for UFC Fight Night bouts between Devin Clark vs. William Knight and Miguel Baeza vs. Andre Fialho.
ANALYSIS

UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Devin Clark vs. William Knight and Miguel Baeza vs. Andre Fialho

The UFC returns home from Jacksonville this week with another fight night, which will settle a rematch between two high-ranked welterweights. In the first meeting, Vicente Luque knocked Belal Muhammad just one minute and nineteen seconds into the first round. Since then, both fighters have come a long way, and Muhammad believes he has made the necessary changes to even the score tonight. Without further ado, let's get into the best bets for tonight.

Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad 2

Devin Clark (-165) vs. William Knight (+140)

Devin Clark (12-6) is a wrestler out of Jackson Wink MMA who hasn't had his hand raised since June 6th, 2020. Clark got his start in the Ressurection Fighting Alliance before joining the UFC and has since gone 6-6 in the UFC. He will be stepping up from his normal light-heavyweight weight class to the heavyweight's tonight. Joining him in the step-up will be William Knight. Knight (11-3) was on a two-fight win streak that got snapped in his last bout against Maxim Grishin after Grishin took a unanimous decision victory.

Knight jumped around the regional scene quite a bit before joining the UFC, but after two knockout wins in Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series, and has gone 3-2 in the promotion. The talented striker out of Thornton Martial Arts has dynamite in his hands, and nine of his eleven wins have come by knockout. Knight's main issue has been his conditioning, and it seems like even if he has a good start, he starts to fade as the fight goes on. This explains both of his UFC losses which were beth decision losses.

The move to heavyweight will be massive for Knight, in my opinion. He has a bulky frame and is too muscular for light heavyweight. His weight cuts were killing not only his conditioning but also his power. Knight will be the more powerful striker in this one, and his hands with all the extras weight will be scary in this bout. Clark is the better wrestler, but Knight is the better striker. I expect Knight to land a knockout here (which is on my personal card), but I like the value on the under here with two heavyweights who will be slinging it.

Pick: Devin Clark vs. William Knight Finishes Inside the Distance @ +110 (Bet $100 to win $110)

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Miguel Baeza (-160) vs. Andre Fialho (+135)

Miguel Baeza (10-2) is a striker out of MMA Masters who will look to end a two-fight skid tonight. Baeza started 3-0 in the UFC before dropping back-to-back contests to Santiago Ponzinibbio and Khaos Williams. Across from him will be Andre Fialho (14-4). Fialho is a striker fighting out of Sanford MMA and had stints in Bellator and the PFL before joining the UFC. In Fialho's UFC debut, he lost a unanimous decision to Michel Pereira and will look to secure his first UFC win tonight.

Both men are better offensively and have holes in their defense, which did cross my mind when making this pick, but ultimately I like Baeza a lot in this spot. Baeza is such a skilled kickboxer who mixes his accuracy, power, and aggression very well. His weakest points are when he has to defend off the back foot, but he excels when he is in control of the fight and on his front foot. Baeza also has a solid chin and exceptional cardio, which helps keep him in the fight even when his defense falters. Baeza also utilizes a nasty kick well that he uses to set up striking entries.

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Fialho doesn't stand out in any particular area as a fighter. He has a solid jab, but his shots can be telegraphed, and his movement isn't fast. Baeza will be the faster fighter tonight and will also have the advantage in the cardio department. If Baeza's chin wasn't so good, I might be less inclined to take him here, but both men are durable. Barring a massive shot from Fialho, which isn't out of the question, Baeza should outpoint him with his faster striking and kicks and potentially finish him.

Pick: Miguel Baeza ML @ -160 (Bet $160 to win $100)

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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