UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lemos vs. Andrade

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton delivers his latest installment of picks for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade.
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UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lemos vs. Andrade

Maycee Barber vs. Montana De La Rosa Prediction

Maycee Barber vs. Montana De La Rosa Odds

Main Card – (W) Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:15 p.m. EST.

Kicking off my two-leg parlay for this week’s card is on the “fight goes the distance” (FGTD) prop on Barber vs. De La Rosa (DLR).

Barber packs a decent amount of heat in her punches, so, at least on her initial surge when joining the UFC, it appeared that she could put away almost anyone in the flyweight division. That said, the finishes stopped shortly thereafter, which almost exposed her in a way, and now she is focused more on trying to box technically (often leading to her pumping her jab from miles away from her opponents) and mixing in the occasional takedown to solidify rounds.

DLR is tough enough for me to think that she can deal with any of Barber’s power punches, and she’s proven that she can hang with opponents who have her outmatches on the feet. DLR does offer up some grappling and submission threat, but given that Barber appears to be defensively sound on the mat, I don’t expect it to play a fight-ending role in this bout.

All in all, I see both fighters having some success in this one, with neither having enough to really come close to forcing the finish. I don’t hate it if anyone fancies taking the ‘dog shot on DLR, but the FGTD prop is the best value bet on the board for my money.

Maycee Barber vs. Montana De La Rosa Pick

1st Parlay Leg: Fight Goes the Distance @ -220

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Amanda Lemos vs. Jéssica Andrade Prediction

Amanda Lemos vs. Jéssica Andrade Odds

Main Event – Strawweight (115lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:45 p.m. EST.

I don’t think we need to overcomplicate this one too much. Andrade is the superior fighter in terms of striking, grappling, toughness, conditioning, strength, and just about anything else you can think of, besides height and reach (Lemos 5' 4" w/ 65" reach vs. Andrade 5' 1" w/ 62" reach). This seems like high praise, but from what we’ve seen to this point, it’s just the truth.

I think you could make some cases for Lemos being superior in some aspects of the game, had she run through Angela Hill in her last fight, but she didn’t. In fact, in many people’s minds, she arguably should have lost on the scorecards, and with that performance, we gained a much greater understanding of how good Lemos actually is at this point.

Lemos does hit hard, and we have seen Andrade hurt across her long tenure within the UFC, so there are paths to victory for Lemos, but more than not, she should just be outclassed here. I can see Andrade winning minutes on the feet with her aggressive forward pressure, and should she look towards her grappling, she should handily control Lemos on the mat, particularly as the fight goes later and Lemos fatigues. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one make it to the judges, but I’m leaning towards an Andrade stoppage, as I think her power and pace will prove a little too much for Lemos.

Amanda Lemos vs. Jéssica Andrade Pick

2nd Parlay Leg: Jessica Andrade Moneyline @ -190

Bet of the Card – (2.5u) Two-Leg Parlay: Fight Goes the Distance (-220) + Jessica Andrade Moneyline (-190) @ +122 (to Return 5.55 Units) (Bet $100 to win $122)

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Jordan Wright vs. Marc-André Barriault Prediction

Jordan Wright vs. Marc-André Barriault Odds

Preliminary Card - Catchweight (190lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:20 p.m. EST.

This fight is an absolute car crash, as is just about any Jordan Wright fight. And as is the case with all 12 of Wright’s pro bouts, look for him to get the early finish, or get put away himself.

Marc-Andre Barriault (MAB) isn’t a perennial finisher, and, excluding him getting KO’ed within the opening exchange of his last fight, he has historically proven to be one tough customer. That said, Wright has this unassuming explosiveness to his striking, and on any given day, he could KO just about anyone in the middleweight division, should he land.

I favor MAB to get through the early madness of Wright’s aggressive onslaught, and I could see him getting the finish at just about any point in the fight. He doesn’t have the heaviest of hands, but with a chin as sketchy as Wright’s, it certainly doesn’t take a lot to have him rocked and on the way out.  

MAB is only 2.5 months removed from his crazy KO/TKO loss to Chidi Njokuani, so I am considering an additional play on Wright via Round 1 KO/TKO when it becomes more readily available at books (preferably looking for +750 of greater), but for the time being, I’ll just be taking the “Fight to end via KO/TKO” prop.

This fight is roughly -200 to end inside the distance, and for good reason given that Wright has never gone out of the 2nd round in his career, much less gone to the scorecards. And, with MAB never securing a submission, nor getting submitted, a submission finish looks unlikely in this fight. Thus, we’re getting some clear value on the fight ends via KO/TKO prop at a juicy -115, which is reflective of a massive 13.2% implied probability shift from the “fight doesn’t go the distance” prop.

Jordan Wright vs. Marc-André Barriault Pick

(2u) Fight Ends via KO/TKO @ -115 (to Return 3.74 Units) (Bet $115 to win $100)

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Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade / UFC on ESPN+ 63 / UFC Vegas 52 / #UFCVegas52

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, April 23rd, 2022

Start Time: Main Card: 9 p.m. EST, Prelims: 6 p.m. EST.

Where To Watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelim Card on ESPN+

UFC Odds:Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Amanda Lemos vs. Jéssica Andrade

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade Full Fight Card Predictions:

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade Main Event Prediction:

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Amanda Lemos vs. Jessica Andrade – Andrade via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade Main Card Predictions:

Lightweight (155lbs): Clay Guida vs. Claudio Puelles – Puelles via Submission

Heavyweight (265lbs): Alexandr Romanov vs. Chase Sherman – Romanov via Submission

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Maycee Barber vs. Montana De La Rosa – Barber via Decision

Flyweight (125lbs): Manel Kape vs. Mudaerji Su – Kape via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain – Jourdain via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade Prelim Card Predictions:

Welterweight (170lbs): Preston Parsons vs. Evan Elder – Elder via KO/TKO

Catchweight (190lbs): Jordan Wright vs. Marc-André Barriault – Barriault via KO/TKO

Welterweight (170lbs): Dwight Grant vs. Sergey Khandozhko – Grant via Decision

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Tyson Pedro vs. Ike Villanueva – Pedro via Submission

Bantamweight (135lbs): Aoriqileng vs. Cameron Else – Aoriqileng via KO/TKO

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Marcin Prachnio vs. Philipe Lins – Prachnio via KO/TKO

Welterweight (170lbs): Dean Barry vs. Mike Jackson – Barry via KO/TKO

*Fight card, bout order, and the number of fights are subject to change.*

Click here to check out all the Best Odds for the Fights!

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insightpicks

A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.

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