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UFC on ESPN 34 prop picks and parlay for Saturday's card. MMA analyst and handicapper, Dan Tom, breaks down his best bets for UFC on ESPN 34, as well as his analysis of the main event, Amanda Lemos vs Jessica Andrade.

UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Amanda Lemos vs Jessica Andrade Prop Picks & Parlay

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Oddschecker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

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UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Jessica Andrade "inside the distance" +135 (Bet $100 to win $135)

The main event for UFC Vegas 52 features a fun strawweight affair between Amanda Lemos (+175) and Jessica Andrade (-210).

Lemos is definitely the fresh blood in this division, but I believe that the oddsmakers got the spread right in this fight. Even though Lemos' countering acumen will make her very lively in the first round, her suspect gas tank makes it hard to confidently pick her beyond that.

Not only will this be Lemos' first five-round main event, but she finds herself facing a proven former champion who only gets stronger as the fight wears on. Couple that with Lemos' propensity to back herself up to the fence, and I can't help but take a shot on Andrade to eventually break down her opposition inside the distance.

UFC Prop Play

1.2-units Straight Play: Clay Guida -120 (Bet $120 to win a $100)

In keeping with my favorite theme of backing veterans and proven talent, I decided to take a shot on Clay Guida (-120), who draws Peru's Claudio Puelles (+100).

Although Puelles seems like a nice enough kid, I've never been sold on his game, as I suspect he's been the recipient of some very favorable swings in his short UFC career. Guida may be the elder statesman at 40-years-old, but his style ages a lot more gracefully than it looks.

Guida also recently proved that he can still fight through some tough storms, as I'm willing to bet that his grinding game is enough to shut out the opportunistic submissions and body kicks of Puelles.

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UFC Parlay Pick

1 unit - Aoriqileng (-235), Marc-Andre Barriault (-190)

2-Leg Parlay at +117 (Bet $100 to win $117)

As I always say, parlaying is a madman's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a chalk pairing on the undercard that could produce a decent plus number on the payout.

For my first leg, I elected to go with Aoriqileng (-235), who faces Cameron Else (+190).

Although Aoriqileng is technically coming off of two consecutive losses, he came up short by the closest of margins, showing some real skills in the process. Luckily for Aoriqileng, I like his chances to get back on track against Cameron Else.

Aside from only winning fights in the first round, Else appears to be inches from falling apart at all times (as I suspect he's too big for bantamweight and is sacrificing serious durability because of it). For that reason, I also took Aoriqileng to win "inside the distance" at +100 (.5-unit) in hopes of bolstering this parlay leg with a potential bonus.

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For my second leg, I ended up backing Marc-Andre Barriault (-190), who meets Jordan Wright (+155).

Despite stepping in on short notice, Barriault has been claiming to be in fight shape and asking for a quick turnaround for at least three weeks (according to his social media, anyway). Barriualt is also coming off of his first stoppage loss, but I still like the Canadian's chances here.

Akin to my reasonings for the previous parlay leg, Wright is also a fighter who can't seem to win past the first round, which – if you don't weigh Barriualt's previous result too heavily – plays right into the Canadian's hands from a stylistic perspective. With that in mind, I also sprinkled small on Barriault to win "inside the distance" at +135 (.33-unit)

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

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Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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