UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Marcin Prachnio vs. Philipe Lins, Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain
From the outside, this looks like a boring card with a lot of low-level, unranked fighters. To be honest, it mostly is, but to us bettors, this card has a few great spots to make money on tomorrow night. These smaller, lesser-known cards usually have more value, honestly, since fighters with bigger names on bigger cards have higher price tags since betting volume is heavier on title cards. Nevertheless, there are a few prime spots I'm eyeing for tomorrow. As far as the main event goes, I think Andrade will win, but it's not worth a bet with the -200 price tag associated with Andrade. Instead, I'm looking to the early prelims and the first fight on the main card for the most value.
Marcin Prachnio vs. Philipe Lins Prediction
Talk about a blink-and-you'll-miss-it fight. Marcin Prachnio (15-5) is perhaps the most aggressive light heavyweight in the division, and he wastes no time once the cage closes. His aggression has paid off in his last two bouts, coming off back-to-back wins, but he started 0-3 in the UFC, all three losses by knockout. His average fight time over his five UFC fights has been six minutes, and that's with one decision bringing that average up. He's only been out of the second round in five of his twenty professional fights. Prachnio gets in your face early and doesn't back up. This aggression has cost him, and I think it will tomorrow night as well.
Philipe Lins (14-5) is a lifetime heavyweight who is dropping a weight class for this one. I love this change for Lins. His hand speed and movement are incredible, and his most significant setback has been that his heavyweight opponents have usually all been the more powerful striker. With a drop to light heavyweight, Lins should have more success. Lins is an exceptional counter striker, and it's one of the strongest parts of his game. This opens up multiple opportunities against a fighter like Marcin Prachnio. Prachnio is essentially always on his front foot and leaves his chin up high, basically asking you to knock him out. With a striker as quick and skilled as Lins, he should be able to land a counter shot for a knockout on Prachnio. However, there is still the chance that Prachnio catches him early in his aggression, and Lins has four of his five losses by knockout. Both guys can be cracked, and I think it will be Prachnio tomorrow, but I'm taking the under here as well as Lins by knockout.
Marcin Prachnio vs. Philipe Lins Picks
- Philipe Lins by Knockout @ +265 (Bet $100 to win $265)
- Philipe Lins/Marcin Prachnio U2 Rounds @ -125 (Bet $125 to win $100)
Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain Prediction
Lando Vannata (12-5-2) is a UFC veteran who hasn't been able to notch back-to-back victories since joining the UFC. He will aim to end that streak by beating Charles Jourdain (12-4-1) tomorrow night. This is a classic striker versus wrestler matchup, and I usually tend to favor wrestler in these matchups, but not this time.
Charles Jourdain has one goal to win this fight: keep it standing. If Vannata lands a takedown early, I think this one is likely to go his way, but Jourdain has a few advantages to keep this from happening, the first being his leg kicks. Jourdain utilizes his leg kicks frequently and often, which will create problems for Vannata. If he can beat up Vannata's legs early, it will give him an advantage against Vannata's takedown threat by weakening his legs. Also, Jourdain often switches stances, making him hard to read and more challenging to enter. It's a lot easier to shoot a takedown when a guy isn't moving as much and is less predictable. Jourdain is not that guy. He has excellent cardio and switches stances, making it harder for Vannata to read his movements and shoot a takedown.
I expect Jourdain to be able to keep this fight on the feet, and if he does, he can pester and pick away at Vannata en route to a victory. He has the more versatile attacks on the feet and is also the higher volume striker. Vannata's path to victory is getting Jourdain down, but I expect Jourdain will be too much for him here. I would lean Jourdain to win by decision as Vannata has only been finished once, but the moneyline is safer with not too much juice attached. Back the slight favorite.
Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain Pick
- Pick: Charles Jourdain ML @ -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.