Apr 28, 12:38pm | 7 min read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Font vs. Vera

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After turning a profit on 4 of the last 5 UFC events, MMA handicapper Christian Broughton looks to this weekend’s card, UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera

ANALYSIS

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Font vs. Vera

Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Prediction

Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera

Main Event – Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:45 p.m. EST.

This is a tough fight to call, as both fighters are well-rounded strikers, with good conditioning, and legendary durability. I do edge towards the side of Font, as he has had 5 round UFC experience, historically he is more proven against the top fighters at bantamweight, and I see him as the more consistent fighter, with greater finesse to his game. If it weren’t for him closing in on being a 35-year-old bantamweight, with Marlon “Chico” Vera sitting firmly in his 29-year-old prime, I’d probably be taking Font’s moneyline, as he is the side by my estimations, but it’s enough to make me a little apprehensive.

A play I do feel quite strongly about, however, is the fight goes the distance prop. Both guys are tough as nails, and have the cardio to carry them, even in gritty all-out wars. Neither fighter has proven to be a proven finisher against top ranked bantamweight opposition, and considering that these are 2 of the absolute toughest 135-pounders, I see little to think that there’ll be a finish at any decent clip in this one.

The 5-rounds is a mild concern, given Font’s age and Vera being unproven over 25-minutes, but all in all, I feel like this one should be fun as hell, but with it still making it to the scorecards at higher rate than the -150 reflects (60% implied odds).

Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Pick

Bet of the Card: (2u) Fight Goes The Distance @ -148 (to Return 3.351 Units) (Bet $148 to win $100)

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Natan Levy vs. Mike Breeden Prediction

Natan Levy vs. Mike Breeden

Preliminary Card - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 5:15 p.m. EST.

Kicking off this week’s parlay is Natan Levy. The 30-year-old Israeli fighter hasn’t got a ton of experience, and nor is he a particularly active fighter, but it’s clear to see that he does have a base level of skills and athleticism, that should carry him comfortably through the lower-end talent within the UFC.

I don’t like backing against James Krause trained, Glory MMA and Fitness fighters, but I’m not too phased by whomever Mike Breeden is trained by, as he looks to be a limited fighter, with a clear ceiling. He’s not going to be a pushover, but he should be handily out-classed here, most notably on the ground, and in grinding clinch situations.

I’m not going to overcomplicate this, as I see Levy getting his offensive wrestling going, and him grinding Breeden down to win a convincing decision. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Levy pull off a submission, but in general, I like Levy enough to think that he should get the win, and cover his near -200 price tag.

Natan Levy vs. Mike Breeden Pick

1st Parlay Leg: Natan Levy Moneyline @ -188

Jared Gordon vs. Grant Dawson Prediction

Jared Gordon vs. Grant Dawson

Main Card - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:15 p.m. EST.

I’ve been a backer of Jared Gordon many times over the course of his UFC career, as he is often a little overlooked, and he’s got the ‘dog mentality that can make him live against most fighters. That said, Grant Dawson is a serious force within the division, and although he fought close against an aging Leonardo Santos, and gassed out horribly against Ricky Glenn, I see no reason to believe that he can’t learn and progress from those experiences.

Gordon will have the striking edge, and his takedown defense may stand strong for a while, but I see Dawson’s wrestling offense paying dividends sooner or later. He is absolutely relentless in his attack, and putting aside the uncharacteristic final round (or so) against Glenn, he’s pretty much always the fresher fighter come the final round.

This could be a little dicey, given that Gordon is calculated, scrappy, and resilient, but I see the young trailblazer, Dawson, executing his gameplan, and overpowering Gordon with his draining grappling offense. Much like what I said about Natan Levy, a finish could be available for Dawson on the mat (especially with some heavy ground and pound), but a decision victory does look to be how he gets this done most of the time.

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