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UFC Vegas 53 prop picks for Saturday's card. MMA analyst and handicapper, Dan Tom, breaks down his best bets for UFC Vegas 53, as well as his analysis of the main event, Rob Font vs Marlon Vera.

UFC Fight Night Best Bets: Rob Font vs. Marlon Vera Prop Picks

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Oddschecker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

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UFC Main Event Prop Play

1-unit - Marlon Vera +115 (Bet $100 to win $115)

The main event for UFC Vegas 53 features a banger at bantamweight between Rob Font (-135) and Marlon Vera (+115).

Although I'm not surprised to see Font favored, he may have to walk a fine line in order to maintain a potential early lead. Despite sometimes being a slow starter, Vera's variety and aggression only build as a fight wears on.

For that reason, I believe that Vera can turn up the temperature enough to force some bad decisions out of Font. In both victories and defeats, Font has had a propensity to shoot somewhat panicked shots, as I suspect that Vera ends up finishing this fight by submission before the final bell sounds.

If you agree but are looking for different angles of approach, then perhaps you should check out the Vera by submission (+600) and inside the distance (+300) props for more attractive price tags.

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UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Underdog play: Jared Gordon +155 (Bet $100 to win $155)

Another dog I like on this card is Jared Gordon (+155), who faces Grant Dawson (-180).

Even though I came up short when backing Ricky Glenn to beat Dawson last year, that fight confirmed a lot of my assumptions in regards to proven wrestlers with good gas tanks. Gordon may not have any collegiate wrestling accolades to his name, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt comes from a grappling base and appears to both wrestle and scramble better than any of Dawson's prior opponents.

In addition to Dawson recently suffering a split with his former training camp, the 28-year-old will also be taking this fight on short notice, stepping in for Rafael Alves. Couple all that with Dawson's propensity to grapple himself into a state of exhaustion, and I also sprinkled on Gordon to get it done in round 3 at +2500.

UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Underdog play: Gerald Meerschaert +140 (Bet $100 to win $140)

In keeping with this sheet's theme, I decided to back another underdog in Gerald Meeschaert (+140).

Meerschaert faces fellow middleweight Krzysztof Jotko (-160), who also fights from a southpaw stance. Although Jotko technically sports a better record against UFC-level lefties than Meerschaert, those statistics – like almost all stats in this volatile sport – are quite misleading.

Ultimately, I believe that the fighting surface of the smaller octagon will be a big factor in determining the winner of this contest.

Jotko, who likes to use big movements and an exponential amount of footwork, will likely find himself frustrated from being hounded down by the plodding pressure of Meerschaert. The American's speed is certainly nothing to write home about, but slow and steady should win the race in this spot.

I don't know if Meerschaert will be able to score one of his patent submission wins, but I do know that Jotko has a propensity to flag in the final frame, win or lose. For that reason, I also sprinkled small on Meerschaert, who initially opened as the odds-on favorite, to potentially find a finish in the third round at +1400.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

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Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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