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UFC 274 plays for Saturday's card. MMA analyst and handicapper, Dan Tom, breaks down his best prop bets for UFC 274, giving out his favorite underdogs and more.

UFC 274 Prop Picks: Make Sure You Back These 3 UFC 274 Prop Picks

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Oddschecker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards.

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UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Underdog play: Melissa Gatto +125 (Bet $100 to win $125)

UFC 274 is a card full of potentially live underdogs, as I'll be taking a couple of shots on this week's sheet.

First up is Melissa Gatto, who faces Tracy Cortez.

Coming from a wrestling base, Cortez carries a lot of solid attributes that should serve her well in her career. And though I have no issues with her opening as the favorite here, I suspect that a long and active fighter like Gatto could pose some problems down the stretch.

Gatto may only carry a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu on paper, but the undefeated fighter appears to have the tenacity of a young Charles Oliveira, aggressively chaining together submissions whenever the action hits the floor. Gatto also appears to have a decent strike selection in regards to deterring wrestlers, throwing everything from snapping front kicks to knees and uppercuts up the middle.

Whether it's Gatto's surprising power standing or her submission savvy off of her back, I'm willing to take the plus-money shot on the more damaging fighter who has more methods to win.

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UFC Prop Play

1.5 units - Straight play: Blagoy Ivanov -150 (Bet $150 to win $100)

There are few things more dangerous in life than laying the chalk on a heavyweight fight in MMA. That said, this is a clear stylistic opportunity to fade a very beatable fighter that I can't pass up.

Even though Marcos Rogerio de Lima has the power to knock anyone out on paper, the former middleweight has traditionally been a first-round or bust fighter since the beginning of his career. More importantly, de Lima, outside of two fights against the extremely low-level competition, has also had a propensity to self-destruct – literally putting himself in submissions on more than one occasion.

For that reason, I can't help but back the most durable fighter on the planet in Blagy Ivanov.

Not only is Ivanov a multiple-time sambo champion who beat Fedor Emelianenko back when it meant something, but the Bulgarian judoka has also shown the ability to absorb everything from a clean Derrick Lewis right hand to a literal knife through his heart. Add in the fact that Ivanov tends to threaten with the occasional guillotine, and I also sprinkled a quarter unit on Ivanov by submission at +500.

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UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Underdog play: Ariane Carnelossi +160 (Bet $100 to win $160)

Another underdog I ended up liking on this card was Ariane Carnelossi.

The bricked-up Brazilian is set to face Lupita Godinez, who has been active since hitting the UFC scene. That said, Godinez still appears to be a bit raw in regards to the directionality of her game.

Godinez has solid aggression and takedown tenacity, but the Mexican-born fighter also shows the propensity to wrestle herself into a hole. Whether she is jumping too high on back-take attempts or not throwing the strike volume that her corner is calling for, Godinez's style can sometimes make fights closer than they need to be.

For that reason, I feel fairly confident in taking a shot on Carnelossi, as she should be the more damaging fighter both on the feet and the floor. Not only is Carnelossi a black belt in muay Thai and kickboxing, but she also outranks Godinez on the ground as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (who actively goes for submissions, mind you).

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

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Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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