UFC 274 Parlay Picks: Back This Expert's +455 Parlay For UFC 274
UFC 274 Parlay Picks: Back This Expert's +455 Parlay For UFC 274
UFC 274 is just hours away, which means it's time to lock in our UFC parlay. This one is on all main event picks and features some legends in the sport. It's a big night for the lightweight division, and the UFC matchmakers have given us some bangers. There are some great betting spots for parlays tomorrow night, so let's dive right in.
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UFC 274 Parlay
Leg 1 - Justin Gaethje ML
I already explained this one in my main event breakdown that you can read here, but I will cover it briefly again. If the fight stays standing, Gaethje has a significant advantage, in my opinion. Khabib Nurmagomedov himself called Gaethje the hardest hitter he had ever faced. Gaethje has 19 of his 23 wins by way of knockout, and he will likely have a cardio advantage. Earlier today, a new development emerged as Charles Oliveira missed weight by a half-pound, meaning his title is stripped win or loss tomorrow. Why does this matter?
For one, Gaethje posted a picture of the scale, and he was 165 pounds in the midst of waiting for Oliveira to weigh in still. Gaethje was one of the first fighters to weigh in and, as a result, had about a four-hour head start on Oliveira to recover. I would also assume Charles's headspace is a little messed up right now, knowing that win or lose tomorrow, he is not the champion. That could be a reach, and I've obviously never been in his position, but think about it. Charles has already lost the belt, and he hasn't even fought. Charles is still a dangerous fighter, and this is a 100% lock for Gaethje, but he has a massive mental head start on Oliveira. One thing I do know from many fighter interviews is that the mental aspect is a huge part of the fight. This, on top of my reasonings from my previous article on Gaethje, creates a good betting spot on the challenger to take the belt tomorrow.
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Leg 2 - Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Finishes Inside the Distance
Fragile man versus fragile man. This is absolutely no disrespect towards Donald Cerrone or Joe Lauzon, as both are legends in the sport and veterans of the UFC, but it has become a fact. This doesn't mean that either fighter isn't dangerous anymore. Heck, Lauzon is coming into this fight off a first-round knockout victory over Jonathan Pearce. In fact, 26 of Lauzon's 28 wins have been inside the distance. However, as dangerous as Lauzon is, he has been getting his chin cracked more recently. Before his knockout victory over Pearce, he suffered a TKO loss to Chris Gruetzemacher and, prior to that, another knockout loss to Clay Guida in the first round. Lauzon could very well have some left in the tank, but this could be his retirement fight. Ironically enough, it could be Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone's too.
Cerrone is a legend in the lightweight division, but he finds himself on a five-fight losing streak and could be in the final stages of his career, especially with another knockout loss. Cowboy has been knocked out or TKO'd in four of his last five fights, and has never been known for his chin to begin with. He's a tough fighter, but eight of his thirteen UFC losses have been by knockout. Cowboy is dangerous himself, though, and he's a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu master. In his tenure, Cowboy has racked up 17 submission wins and has 27 finishes in 36 fights.
These men have conflicting personalities inside the octagon, despite similar fight styles. Lauzon loves to come out early and start swinging. Lauzon is a fast starter and has 18 finishes in the first round. On the other hand, Cowboy settles into fights and typically gets better as the fight progresses. That being said, I can see this going two ways. Either Lauzon comes out on fire like normal and is too much for a declining Cerrone, or Cerrone weathers the first round and puts Lauzon out in the third round. I can honestly see a relatively even chance of either of those two happening. Therefore, I'm not picking a winner in this fight, but rather that we won't need the scorecards for this one.
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Leg 3 - Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson O1.5 Rounds
There's only one aspect behind this pick, and I think it's the only one you need. Tony Ferguson has been in the UFC for 11 years now. He has been the champion and has fought the best-of-the-best. In eleven years of facing some of the most challenging opponents you could throw at him in the UFC, he has been finished once. Once. That finish also came in the fifth round. In 32 overall professional fights, he has been finished twice. Ferguson is as tough as they come. He will not quit. He's too tough for his own good, and that's why I think this fight goes late and potentially to the scorecards, but we only need 7.5 minutes.
I see Chandler winning this fight quite easily, frankly. He is the stronger man at this point in his career and is closer to his prime than Ferguson. It doesn't take a genius to see Ferguson is on the decline, but honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if he did win, which is why Chandler ML is not the play. Ferguson is a difficult fighter to read and throws some very unique strikes. However, if Ferguson does win this fight, I think it will be by decision. Chandler is uncompromising in his own right and has only been finished four times in 29 professional fights.
Chandler being -400 leads me to believe he will win, as probably 95% of people also have Chandler winning. This means Chandler would have to finish a legend of the sport who has been finished once in his eleven years in the UFC and has proven to be one of the toughest fighters in the UFC who does not quit. If Chandler does finish Ferguson, I see it being later in the second or third round after he's hit him with enough power shots to finally put him away or the doctor stopping it. We just need 7.5 minutes for this to hit.
UFC 274 Parlay Picks
3-Leg +455 Parlay (Bet $100 to win $455)
- Leg 1 - Justin Gaethje ML
- Leg 2 - Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Finishes Inside the Distance
- Leg 3 - Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson O1.5 Rounds
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.