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MMA handicapper Christian Broughton gives his best bets for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Holm vs. Vieira

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton gives his best bets for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira. Let's dive into the picks, predictions, and odds for UFC Fight Night.

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Bet of the Card: (2.5u) Omar Morales Moneyline @ -145 (to Return 4.224 Units)

Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic Prediction

Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic

Preliminary Card - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 5:45 p.m. EST.

·       Omar Morales is 3-2 in the UFC, with losses coming against 8th ranked FW, Giga Chikadze, and Jonathan Pearce, who is now on a 3-fight win streak.

·       Uros Medic is yet to earn a win over a currently rostered UFC fighter.

This is one of my favorite spots to bet in MMA: a fighter who is a known commodity (Morales) versus a fighter who is still a relative unknown, yet has garnered some love due to early finishes against questionable opposition (Medic). And don’t worry, I am aware people have cooled on Medic a little after he got demolished in the first round by Jalin Turner in September of last year, but due to Turner’s recent surge, it’s safe, and also fair to say, that Medic is getting a bit of a pass on what was an eye-opening defeat.

Morlaes is tough, proven, and well-rounded. His knockout power hasn’t carried much to the UFC-level, but his precision striking has. He got a little exposed in his last fight after he was relentlessly taken down and then submitted by Jonathan “JSP'' Pearce, but much like Medic’s defeat to Turner, it’s one that’s aged well.

As previously stated, it’s still up in the air about how good Medic is, but with all 7 of his wins coming inside of 6 minutes (6 in the first round), it’s reasonable to think that he’s either fighting low level comp’, is an insanely strong front runner, or much less likely, a serious prospect who just hit a bump in the round last time out. For me, I think it lies somewhere between the two former. He came up through the notoriously terrible Alaskan regional scene, and regardless of the opponents, he unquestionably comes out of the gates hard and fast.

Morales is now 36-years-old, which does bring about some concerns, but aside from that, I feel pretty good about thinking he can take the early lead from Medic, and either effectively return fire for the early finish, or steadily takeover as the fight goes on, thus bringing about a late stoppage for him, or a decision victory.

There is always the chance that Medic could be “the goods” and look incredible, but for around -150 on a durable and UFC-proven fighter vs. an early finishing machine from Alaska FC, I’m willing to wager that he won’t.

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(1u) Duško Todorović Moneyline @ +198 (to Return 2.98 Units)

Chidi Njokuani vs. Dusko Todorovic Prediction

Chidi Njokuani vs. Duško Todorović

Main Card - Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:15 p.m. EST.

·       6 of Chidi Njokuani’s 7 pro losses have come inside the distance (3 KO/TKOs, 3 Submissions) (per Tapology.com).

·       Both of Dusko Todorovic’s UFC wins have come via TKO ground and pound stoppage.

Todorovic entered the UFC with a lot of hype. He’s a karate-style fighter, who’s all-action, fights with his hands down, and has a tidy top game. It was easy to see what people liked in his aggressive and flashy style, but it didn’t take long to see him get caught with his hands low and his chin up against Punahele Soriano. Since then, Todorovic’s career has stalled a little, with him following that loss up with another (this time via decision) and a TKO win (coming against a now former-UFC fighter), and as a result, the betting market’s faith in the 28-year-old Serbian prospect has evaporated.

Njokuani has the tools to beat Todorovic. He’s fast, explosive, and has a ton of experience at a decent level in the sport. He is more than capable of KOing Todorovic too, given his power and Todorovic’s questionable chin and striking defense, but even with this in mind, I’m not sure we should be seeing him here as this big of a favorite.

Njokuani won’t be easy to get to the ground, but with a heavy wrestling and grappling centric gameplan, Todorovic can get this fight to the mat, and win minutes, if not force the finish. On the feet, he should look out-matched, and I expect him to get out-landed, but if he fights elusively, this should minimalize his disadvantage, and open up his chances of winning rounds through some well-timed clinches and takedowns.

Everything considered, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Njokuani flatline Todorovic, but I trust Todorovic enough to know that he needs to focus on grappling and stay out of harm's way on the feet. In my mind, this is reason enough to take a stab on someone who was recently at a highly-rated prospect, as a near 2-to-1 ‘dog, against Njokuani, a fighter who has been a bit of a glorified journeyman for much of his career, albeit a skilled and dangerous one.

 No Official Bet, but the Picks are: Holly Holm Moneyline (-230) & Goes the Distance (-220)

Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira

Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira

Main Event - (W) Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.

·       Holly Holm has won each of her last 3 fights that have gone to decision.

·       Ketlen Vieira has been out-landed on significant strikes by each of her last 6 opponents (per UFCStats.com).

I always aim to put out a bet for each UFC card’s main event, even if it’s just a small value play, but this week, I just can’t do it.

Holm should get the win here at a decent clip due to her general skill-edge, combined with her greater volume and precision striking. But, with Holm’s -230 moneyline (best odds), I just can’t make a case for her to do it reliably enough at 40 years of age, against a fighter who is in their prime, and has been showing slight improvements.

The “goes the distance” (GTD) prop is also the side in my opinion, but with it swelled to around -220, I also can’t make the case for a bet, in a 5-round fight, even with two fighters who have sparingly finished opponents in recent years.

All in all, I expect Holm to out-land Vieira on the feet, to largely contend, if not win, clinch positions against the cage, and avoid being taken down to the mat. A finish shouldn’t be out of the question given Holm can pull knockouts out of nowhere, and Vieira can submit people on the mat, but realistically, we should be seeing this coast to the scorecards.

If you must have a bet, I’d probably look towards the GTD prop above all else, but for me, it’s going to be a pass this week.

 Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 Event: UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira / UFC on ESPN+ 64 / UFC Vegas 55 / #UFCVegas55

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, May 21st, 2022

Start Time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST., Prelims: 4 p.m. EST.

Where to Watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelim Card on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira Full Fight Card Predictions:

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira Main Event Prediction:

(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira – Holm via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira Main Card Predictions:

Welterweight (170lbs): Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Michel Pereira – Pereira via Decision

Middleweight (185lbs): Chidi Njokuani vs. Dusko Todorovic – Todorovic via KO/TKO

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Polyana Viana vs. Tabatha Ricci – Viana via Decision

Middleweight (185lbs): Eryk Anders vs. Jun Yong Park – Park via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira Prelim Card Predictions:

Middleweight (185lbs): Joseph Holmes vs. Alen Amedovski – Holmes via Submission

Heavyweight (265lbs): Jailton Almeida vs. Parker Porter – Almeida via KO/TKO

Lightweight (155lbs): Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic – Morales via KO/TKO

Bantamweight (135lbs): Jonathan Martinez vs. Vince Morales – Martinez via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Chase Hooper vs. Felipe Colares – Colares via Decision

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Elise Reed vs. Sam Hughes – Hughes via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

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Article Author


A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.


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