UFC Fight Night Predictions and Parlay: Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira

UFC Vegas 55 parlay, prop picks, and more for Saturday's card. MMA analyst and handicapper, Dan Tom, breaks down his best bets for UFC Vegas 55, as well as his analysis of the main event, Holly Holm vs Ketlen Vieira.
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UFC Fight Night Predictions and Parlay: Holly Holm vs. Ketlen Vieira

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at Odds Checker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards. Here are my picks, prediction, and the complete odds for UFC Vegas 55.

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UFC Parlay Pick

1.5 Unit Parlay: Holly Holm (-250), Chidi Njokuani (-235), Jun Yong Park (-210)

3-Leg Parlay @ +194 (Bet $100 to win $194)

As I always say, parlaying is a madman's game in MMA. That said, I'd be lying if I told you that I didn't dabble in them for fun (keyword fun). This week, I decided to go with a chalk trio that could produce a decent plus number on the payout.

For my first leg, I elected to go with Holly Holm (-250), who meets Ketlen Vieira (+195) in the main event.

Holly Holm vs Ketlen Vieira

Despite initially looking to play the younger fighter, I ended up going the other way after watching the tape. Vieira may be the better grappler on paper, but I believe that Holm is the better wrestler and clinch fighter who can subsequently dictate where the action takes place in this contest.

Add in the fact that Vieira has a propensity to eat body shots and left-sided strikes, and I suspect we see Holm test the Brazilian's somewhat suspect chin early and often. For that reason, I decided to sprinkle on Holm "by knockout" at +450 (.5-unit) to help bolster this parlay leg.

For my second selection, I decided to back Chidi Njokuani (-235) in a middleweight matchup opposite Dusko Todorovic (+180).

Chidi Njokuani vs Dusko Todorovic

Even though Todorovic can be an awkward fighter to face, I think that the muay Thai stylings of Njokuani could prove to be stylistic kryptonite for the Serbian standout. Both men are Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, but Njokuani's wrestling and striking from the clinch will probably be the difference-maker in the smaller cage.

Todorovic is not the strongest takedown threat from this space, as he primarily uses it to reset. But since he won't have safe shelter in this fight, I suspect that Todorovic ends up getting mowed down by Njokuani's counters and bodywork before the final bell sounds.

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With that in mind, I placed a half unit on Njokuani "by knockout" at +125 as a potential added bonus.

For the final leg, I ended up siding with Jun Yong Park (-210), who faces Eryk Anders (+175) at 185 pounds.

Jun Yong Park vs Eryk Anders

Even though it's easy to like a guy like Anders, it can be hard to confidently back him has given his historic fight IQ. Whether he's shooting in on a hurt foe or throwing illegal shots in the heat of the moment, Anders seems to have a knack for finding the hard road.

For that reason, I feel fairly comfortable putting some faith in a fighter like Park.

Anders may have a powerful edge, but Park is a fairly technical and speedy striker on the feet – at least for a middleweight. More importantly, the Korean appears to be the better wrestler of the two, as I bet Park to win "by decision" at +120 in order to help prop this leg up with a potential bonus.

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UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Underdog play: Santiago Ponzinibbio +105 (Bet $100 to win $105)

Although it has felt like a rocky road for Santiago Ponzinibbio as of late, I believe that this could be the matchup that puts him back on the map.

Despite Michel Pereira's technical skills quietly catching up to the hype he receives for his more flashy offerings, I suspect that he's still susceptible to the underlying themes of pressure and pace. Add in the fact that the Brazilian has a propensity to play in Ponzinibbio's kill zone between the cage and inner-black octagon lines, and I see the Argentine fighter recreating Pereira's knockout loss to Todorovic on the regionals.

And in case my hunch is right, I also sprinkled small (.17-units) on Ponzinibbio in both rounds 2 (+1100) and 3 (+2200).

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

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MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.

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