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UFC Fight Night underdog picks for Saturday's card. MMA analyst and handicapper, Dan Tom, breaks down his best bets for UFC Fight Night, as well as his analysis of the main event, Alexander Volkov vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik

With the UFC swinging fast into 2022, we here at OddsChecker will be looking to have you covered when it comes to betting on MMA. As a longtime martial arts analyst and gambler, I'll be providing you with everything from technical analysis to my favorite lines in the form of parlays, props, and more for upcoming fight cards. Here are my picks, prediction, and the complete odds for UFC Fight Night.

Click Here for Complete UFC Fight Night Odds

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UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Main event play: Jairzinho Rozenstruik +135 (Bet $100 to win $135)

The main event for UFC Vegas 56 features an intriguing showdown between Alexander Volkov (-155) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+135).

Despite typically favoring process-driven fighters with more experience, I find myself liking the opportunistic underdog in this equation.

Volkov is definitely the more technical and well-rounded fighter, but MMA can be somewhat matchup dependent at this level, as I suspect that Rozenstruik is a rough fit for the Russian.

Not only does Volkov lack the traditional takedown offense to change the phases of this fight, but the 33-year-old seems to struggle the most with left hands and uppercuts – strikes that Rozenstruik specializes in.

Couple all that with the quiet improvements of the American Top Team product, and I can't help but take a shot on Rozenstruik to find a finishing punch before the final bell.

UFC Prop Play

.75 units - Underdog play: Dan Ige +310 (Bet $100 to win $310)

Before anyone follows me off of this cliff, let me first state my bias of being a longtime member of Dan Ige's home gym, Xtreme Couture.

That said, there are multiple reasons I have for both making this pick and bet.

Despite coming into this fight admittedly leaning toward Movsar Evloev (-410), I felt much different after going back to watch the tape.

I'm still a fan of Evloev's wrestle-boxing sensibilities, but he's shown that he can potentially wrestle himself into a hole against lower-ranked opposition. Ige may have lost three of his last five fights, but those were competitive contests against top-level featherweights.

In fact, there's a solid argument for scoring Ige's last outing opposite Josh Emmett in his favor, as the Hawaiian displayed excellent inside boxing and recoverability.

Should those same attributes show themselves here, then I suspect that Evloev – who has shown that he can be hurt in the pocket – will be in for rougher weather than he anticipated. For that reason, I also sprinkled on Ige "by knockout" at +850 (.17-U).

UFC Prop Play

1 unit - Underdog play: Niklas Stolze +130 (Bet $100 to win $130)

Rounding out this week's trio of underdogs is Niklas Stolze (+135), who is set to face Benoit Saint-Denis (-155).

Despite missing the disgustingly-wide opening line on this fight, I still felt compelled to take a shot on Stolze.

Aside from Saint-Denis being a grapple-heavy fighter in the smaller cage, I struggle to see the confidence in lining him to win by a large margin.

I may have made the mistake that the oddsmakers are potentially making here when I overvalued Stolze off of a loss to Ramazan Emeev ahead of his fight with Jared Gooden. That said, Stolze showed solid takedown defense against Emeev, even out-wrestling the Dagestani for portions of the third round.

Should Stolze show similar skills and sensibilities (sans the Guillotine attempts) this Saturday, then I suspect that his aggression and time spent training with UFC-level talent at Syndicate MMA will ultimately produce him a win for being the more damaging fighter.

Regardless of what you're betting, good luck and bet responsibly, my friends!

And if you'd like more of my analysis, feel free to check out my weekly show, The Protect Ya' Neck Podcast.

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Article Author


MMA analyst for MMAJunkie, USA TODAY Sports, and OddsChecker US.


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