Jun 15, 11:38am | 8 mins read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Kattar vs. Emmett

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MMA handicapper Christian Broughton has his eye on three underdogs for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett.

ANALYSIS

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Kattar vs. Emmett

MMA handicapper Christian Broughton has his eye on three underdogs for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett.

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Bet of the Card: (2u) Fight Doesn’t Start Round 3 @ -102 (to Return 3.961 Units)

Donald Cerrone vs Joe Lauzon Prediction

Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Odds

Co-Main Event - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone is on a 0-5-1 run, and he’s been stopped before the start 3rd round in 4 of those 6 fights.
All of Joe Lauzon’s last 3 fights have finished inside of 2 rounds, and he’s been away from the cage for almost 3-years, which generally isn’t the most promising sign for an aging fighter.

Don’t get me wrong, these two are absolute legends of the sport, but it would be insane to suggest that they’re still anywhere close to being in their primes. Instead, they’re on the brink of retirement, and although they’ll be looking to dig deep and give everything here, I wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them get folded over early.

Cerrone will have the edge standing and is the rightful favorite, but Lauzon could easily take this one to the ground and quickly lay down some hard shots from the top position. Lauzon won his last fight in emphatic fashion (a 1st round TKO win over Jonathan “JSP” Pearce), and because of how long ago that was (October 2019), as well as how long it’s been since his last loss, it’s almost easy to forget how over the hill he looked at one point. For those who can’t quite recall, prior to the JSP win, he was on a 1-4 run (which Lauzon admitted should have been 0-5, if it weren’t for a suspect decision victory), and his two most recent losses were KO/TKO stoppages against Chris Gruetzemacher and Clay Guida… which is nothing short of damning, as far as careers go.

I think that both men have early finishing upside due to the durability question marks surrounding this one, and on top of that, I’m not entirely sure how Lauzon’s cardio will hold up too, which should offer up even more finishing potential as the fight goes beyond the first five minutes. I’m taking this fight to end before it reaches the third round.

(1u) Tony Kelley Moneyline @ +290 (to Return 3.9 Units)

Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley Prediction

Adrian Yanez vs. Tony Kelley Odds

Preliminary Card Headliner - Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 6:40 p.m. EST.

Adrian Yanez will be giving up a 2-inch height advantage in this fight (per UFCStats.com).
Tony Kelley has no recorded stoppage losses as a pro (per Tapology.com).

Tony Kelley looks to be a complete moron outside of the cage, but inside of it, he fights to a good gameplan and keeps fights close, which is exactly what you want from a decently sized betting underdog.

The cat is already out of the bag about Adrian Yanez at this point. He’s a wildly entertaining striker, with strong volume and power. You can see that technically he can outclass the bulk of the stacked 135lb division on the feet, but that’s not to say that he is defensively sound enough to do it reliably against the Tony Kelley-type guys, who are going to get right in his face for 15 minutes, and who aren’t going to be put down without one hell of a knockout blow catching them coming in.

I love Davy Grant, but if Adrian Yanez is capable of fighting to a close fight against him as a -300 favorite, then he’s more than capable of getting pushed to the limit by Tony Kelley too. Look for the stats in this one to be closely aligned, with Yanez perhaps looking the slightly cleaner striker, but with Kelley looking the more aggressive, particularly as the fight goes later and Yanez slows a little.

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(1u) Josh Emmett Moneyline @ +200 (to Return 3 Units)

Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett Prediction

Calvin Kattar vs. Josh Emmett Odds

Main Event - Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:45 p.m. EST.

Calvin Kattar is yet to face a fighter with the same level of knockout power as Josh Emmett.
Emmett has scored at least 1 knockdown in each of his last 7 fights (11 knockdowns combined in that stretch) (per UFCStats.com).

This is some cracking matchmaking. On one side we have Kattar, whose game is predicated on precision boxing, cardio, and toughness. And on the other, we have Emmett, who prefers more of a varied approach to fighting, mixing in his striking and wrestling, and making good use of his insane power to always keep his opponents on guard.

It’s a tough one to call, but even at 37 years old, Emmett just has to be the side here for me. He may not quite match the pace and cardio of Kattar, but his insane ability to rise to the level of his opposition, whilst throwing the more damaging shots, just can’t be ignored. I’d be somewhat shocked to see Emmett put Kattar away with one killer blow, but I could see him scoring a knockout or two, gaining some top side control with his wrestling, and just gaining 3 of the 5 rounds through his grit and determination. And, for that reason, I feel compelled to take the shot on him as the near 2-to-1 ‘dog.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.