Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Prediction: Should You Trust Cerrone To Beat Lauzon?

Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Prediction: Should You Trust Cerrone To Beat Lauzon?

The UFC hits the road this weekend and heads to Austin, Texas with the main event featuring No. 4 Calvin Kattar taking on No. 7 Josh Emmett. This is a stacked card with rising stars and seasoned vets sprinkled in throughout the event. This piece will be focusing on the latter as 39-year-old Donald Cerrone goes toe-to-toe with 38-year-old Joe Lauzon in the co-main event. 

UFC Fight Night Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: June 18, 2022

Time: Prelims 4:00 pm ET, Main 7:00 pm ET

Where To Watch: ESPN, ESPN+

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Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Prediction

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Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone enters this weekend’s bout with a record of 36-16-0 (2 NC). Despite the overall career success, he’s trying to corral a six-fight winless streak. Cerrone has had a little over a year off with his last bout being a losing effort to Alex Morono back in May of 2021. Morono knocked out Cerrone with 20 seconds left in the first round, which means four of his last six fights have resulted in an early exit from Cowboy.

Joe Lauzon is coming off of a knockout win over Jonathan Pearce and the victory propelled him to a career record of 28-16 in his career. It was a beautiful piece of work from Lauzon as he cranked a reverse half-nelson on Pearce and whaled on his face for 30 seconds before Herb Dean finally stopped it. However, Saturday’s fight will be his first contest since October of 2019 and just his second in 1,534 days (April 2018).

I believe Cerrone has the advantage on the feet in this matchup and that could spell danger for Joe Lauzon. In my opinion, Lauzon’s path to victory in this fight is getting Cerrone to the ground and trying to go for a finish from the top. The crafty vet is averaging 2.39 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing at a 45% success rate over his career.

I don’t think he’s going to have much luck against Cerrone as he’s a black belt in BJJ and boasts a 75% career takedown defense rate. Cowboy should be able to keep this fight vertical, where he holds the edge. Lauzon is absorbing 5.39 significant strikes per minute throughout his career, so Cerrone should be able to piece him up all night on the feet.

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Cerrone has been more active over the last four years, which I think holds weight. Even though Lauzon knocked out Pearce coming off of a 500+ day layoff, that was Pearce’s first fight in the UFC cage. This is a whole different animal that he’s dealing with in Cerrone. He has a ton of experience and won’t be tricked as easily as Pearce.

Not to mention, while Lauzon has been sidelined, Cerrone has been fighting top-notch competitions like Tony Ferguson, Justin Gaethje, and Conor McGregor. And even though Cerrone was on the losing end of those fights, he’s still in the octagon squaring off against world-class brawlers. I like the plus-money payout with Cerrone winning by KO/TKO tonight.

Donald Cerrone vs. Joe Lauzon Pick

• Donald Cerrone by KO/TKO/DQ (+165) (Bet $165 to win $100)

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