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UFC Fight Night predictions, picks and odds. MMA handicapper Christian Broughton has 3 plus-money plays for this weekend’s UFC card, UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot. Make sure you check them out here
ANALYSIS

Bet of the Card: (2u) Mateusz Gamrot Moneyline @ +250 (to Return 7 Units)

(0.25u) Mateusz Gamrot via Decision @ +550 (to Return 1.625 Units)

Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Main Event - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:45 p.m. EST.

Mateusz Gamrot will be Arman Tsarukyan’s toughest opponent to date, outside of Islam Makhachev (who he lost to via unanimous decision).

This will be Arman’s first 5 round fight, whereas Gamrot already has 4 to his name (per Tapology.com).

Both these guys are insanely talented, and I would happily listen to a case for either guy being slightly favored, but with one guy sitting at roughly -300, it just doesn’t compute.

Arman is the younger and more developing fighter, and he’s a solid all-rounder who is capable of putting on dominant displays with minimal risk. Gamrot is the more established guy, and he has a wealth of 5 round fight experience under his belt, as well as impressive finish wins against the likes of Carlos Diego Ferreira, Jeremy Stephens, and Norman Parke.

I see them as being similarly matched in just about all aspects of MMA, but with Gamrot being the slightly more technical striker with greater pop in his punches, as well as the more dangerous submission grappler. In return, Arman is a little trickier to deal with on the feet due to his range striking, and he can really put a pace on guys when he feels like it. Against most opponents, Arman’s unorthodox striking, potentially wicked pace, and smooth transitional wrestling, can enable him to run through people, but against someone of Gamrot’s caliber, he might be content to keep this as a tentative tit-for-tat affair.

Whichever approach Arman decides to take, I find it hard to see this playing out as anything but a close fight, barring a crazy finish early. So, for that reason, I think this should be lined much closer, thus Gamrot is really a no brainer play for me.

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(2u) Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance @ +100 (to Return 4 Units)

JP Buys vs. Cody Durden

Preliminary Card - Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:40 p.m. EST.

JP Buys has a 9-4 record, with all of his wins (3 KO/TKO, 5 Submissions, 1 DQ) and 3 of his 4 losses (2 KO/TKO, 1 Submission) coming via stoppage.

10 of Cody Durden’s 12 wins have comes inside the distance (5 KO/TKO, 5 Submissions), and 3 of his 4 losses have been submissions (per Tapology.com).

This is a volatile fight, and although the moneyline reflects that, the goes the distance yes/no prop, doesn’t. Both guys have been finishers over the course of their careers, and both guys have been finished for the bulk of their losses.

I’d label JP Buys as the better grappler, Durden as the stronger wrestler, and it as being close to call between them striking, which neither guy particularly excels at. If this gets to the mat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either man secure a submission, especially once fatigue sets in, and when on the feet, I could also see someone getting dropped and finished, particularly Buys, as there has to be questions asked about his durability following his first 2 fights in the UFC.

Ultimately, there is avenues for this to go to the scorecards, should they stalemate a little in grappling situations, but this should playout as an absolutely wild fight, with plenty of big moments and swings in the action, which should produce a finish more often than not.

(0.5u) Vanessa Demopoulos to Win Inside the Distance @ +550 (to Return 3.25 Units)

Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jinh Yu Frey

Preliminary Card Opener – (W) Strawweight (115lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:00 p.m. EST.

5 of Vanessa Demopoulos’ 7 wins have come inside the distance (1 KO/TKO, 4 Submissions).

Jinh Yu Frey has been finished in 3 of her 6 defeats (2 KO/TKO, 1 Submission) (per Tapology.com).

Jinh Yu Frey is the more reliable and skilled fighter in this matchup, yet, no matter who she faces in the UFC, her being an almost -300 fav, seems pretty indefensible.

No disrespect to Frey, but by and large, she has been a career journeywoman, who has fought her way to a couple wins by being slightly more technical and reliable than her recent opponents. I wouldn’t be shocked to see her edge out Demopoulos for the 3 rounds, simply due to her more polished striking and decent top game, but given the odds, I like Demopoulos to potentially pull the upset, due to her grit and determination.

Demopoulos is far from being a well-rounded fighter, but she does create messy fights, which can open the door for her to get on top of her opponent on the ground, and search for a finish. I wouldn’t advocate playing her moneyline, as I see her losing this fight until she isn’t, meaning she won’t likely look like value here, unless she’s on the brink of snatching a submission/ground stoppage. And for that reason, her inside the distance prop does have me interested, and it will be getting a play from me, as I do see her creating stoppage opportunities, even if she is largely outclassed.

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Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot / UFC on ESPN 38 / UFC Vegas 57 / #UFCVegas57

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, June 25th, 2022

Start Time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST., Prelims: 7 p.m. EST.

Where to Watch: Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+, Prelim Card on ESPN2/ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Main Event Prediction

Lightweight (155lbs): Arman Tsarukyan vs. Mateusz Gamrot – Gamrot via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Main Card Predictions

Welterweight (170lbs): Neil Magny vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov – Rakhmonov via Submission

Heavyweight (265lbs): Josh Parisian vs. Alan Baudot – Baudot via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Thiago Moisés vs. Christos Giagos – Moises via Submission

Bantamweight (135lbs): Nate Maness vs. Umar Nurmagomedov – Nurmagomedov via Submission

Middleweight (185lbs): Chris Curtis vs. Rodolfo Vieira –Curtis via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot Prelim Card Predictions

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Carlos Ulberg vs. Tafon Nchukwi – Nchukwi via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs. TJ Brown – Brown via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Raulian Paiva vs. Sergey Morozov – Morozov via Decision

Flyweight (125lbs): JP Buys vs. Cody Durden – Durden via KO/TKO

Bantamweight (135lbs): Brian Kelleher vs. Mario Bautista – Bautista via Decision

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Vanessa Demopoulos vs. Jinh Yu Frey – Demopoulos via Submission

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Article Author

Boxing/MMA

A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.

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