UFC 276 Picks: Odds and Predictions for Every Fight, Including Adesanya vs. Cannonier
UFC 276 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
MMA handicapper Christian Broughton delivers best bets for this weekend’s stacked UFC PPV card, UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier.
Bet of the Card: (3u) Two-Leg Parlay: Volkanovski vs. Holloway – Goes the Distance (-190) + Israel Adesanya ML (-385) @ -108 (to Return 3.846 Units)
(2u) Max Holloway via Decision @ +310 (to Return 8.2 Units)
1st Parlay Leg: Goes the Distance @ -190
Co-Main Event – UFC Featherweight (145lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:45 p.m. EST.
· Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway have already fought for a combined 50 minutes, with neither fighter getting knocked down (per UFCStats.com).
· Their last fight was a split-decision win for Volkanovski, but 2 thirds of the MMA media members scoring the fight gave it to Holloway (18 vs. 9) (per MMADecisions.com).
I don’t really know what more needs to be said about a fight we’ve seen play out close and over 25-minutes, twice before.
Both guys are technically exceptional, perhaps with Volkanovski being the marginally more polished defensive striker and offensive grappler, but Holloway has the greater upside of finding his “flow state” (God, I hate that phrase), and simply running away with the fight, against almost anyone.
Expect this one to be back and forth, with the finest of margins deciding rounds. If there are big moments, I’d expect them to come from Volkanovski as the guy with greater finishing ability and power, but even still, that shouldn’t warrant him being this big of a favorite against someone as durable as Holloway, and it’s bordering on disrespectful to the former champ.
It’s not every day that I’m going to advocate betting a goes the distance prop in a 5-round fight at around -200 (66.7% implied), but I see this fight going to a decision around 80% of the time so that just screams value, as I’d be relatively stunned to see either get a finish. As an additional play, I’ll also be taking Holloway’s decision prop, as his moneyline is too wide, in what is almost a coin-flip fight, and this is only exaggerated with his decision prop, as he’s the fighter who I see as being less likely to get the stoppage.
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2nd Parlay Leg: Israel Adesanya Moneyline @ -385
Main Event – UFC Middleweight (185lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 12:30 a.m. EST.
· Israel Adesanya has out-landed every middleweight opponent he has faced in the UFC on significant strikes.
· Jared Cannonier has been knocked down twice in his last three fights (per UFCStats.com).
There’s a lot to like on this card from a betting perspective, but as far as a reliable parlay piece goes, you’re not going to find one much more so than Adesanya.
He’s going to be able to out-maneuver and out-work Cannonier on the feet, and although he does have some minor holes with his takedown defense and working off his back, far more established wrestlers than Cannonier, have struggled to take advantage of those holes.
Cannonier does deserve credit, as he is tough and moves forward with purpose. His striking has advanced levels since he joined the UFC, and his game has rounded out nicely in general. But, at 38 years old, it’s more than likely that we’ve already seen the best Cannonier we’re ever going to see at this point, and I don’t believe he’s got what it takes to win multiple rounds decisively over Adesanya, or catch him with one hellacious power shot to put him away.
For these reasons, Adesanya’s moneyline looks to be a solid play at -400, and I see him paying off at a higher rate than the line suggests, thus making him a nice anchor-leg for parlays.
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(1.5u) Brad Riddell Moneyline @ +125 (to Return 3.375 Units)
(0.25u) Brad Riddell via KO/TKO @ +290 (to Return 0.975 Units)
Preliminary Card Headliner - Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:40 p.m. EST.
· Statistically, Brad Riddell has better striking accuracy (53% vs. 47%) and better striking defense (52% vs. 44%) than Jalin Turner (per UFCStats.com).
· Turner has been KO/TKO’ed in 3 of his 5 pro losses (per Tapology.com).
The line on this fight looks to be a bit of an overreaction to recent events. Brad Riddell was stopped by Rafael Fiziev in his last fight, and Jalin Turner looks to be leveling up nicely as a young, athletic, and physically gifted fighter.
I understand what people are seeing and liking out of Turner, as it’s always nice to see guys putting it together and getting the most out of themselves, but until I see him carry these improvements up a rising level of ranked opposition, I’m going to have my doubts.
Brad Riddell is an extremely polished striker, and aside from getting clipped by an unbelievably calculated wheel kick against Fiziev, he’s looked better than everyone else he’s faced. I also like that despite him primarily being a stand-up guy, he’s not afraid to mix things up when he sees openings for takedowns, and that is what I can see propelling him to the win here.
Standing, Turner will have to utilize his 6-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage well (per UFCStats.com), because if he doesn’t, you best believe that Riddell is going to chew his legs up with kicks, before closing distance and littering him with shots whilst he darts in and out of range. As for the grappling, Turner is the better submission grappler, unquestionably, but I prefer what Riddell brings to the table with his strategic takedowns and top control, as well as the urgency he has to get up off his back when he himself gets taken down.
Ultimately, this is a close fight, but we’ve seen Riddell go toe-to-toe with the better opposition, and we’ve seen Turner wilt to lesser opposition. This could well be one of those fights where we see the surging younger fighter surpass the more established guy, and show a new gritty side to himself, but at ‘dog odds, I’m not going to be betting on Riddell to stop the hype.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier / UFC 276: Volkanovski vs. Holloway / #UFC276
Location & Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date: Saturday, July 2nd, 2022
Start Time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST., Prelims: 8 p.m. EST., Early Prelims: 6 p.m. EST.
Where to Watch: Main Card on PPV, Prelim Card on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, Early Prelim Card on ESPN/ESPN+
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier Full Fight Card Predictions:
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier Main Event Prediction:
Middleweight (185lbs): Israel Adesanya vs. Jared Cannonier – Adesanya via KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier Main Card Predictions:
Featherweight (145lbs): Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway – Holloway via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Sean Strickland vs. Alex Pereira – Strickland via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Robbie Lawler vs. Bryan Barberena – Lawler via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Pedro Munhoz vs. Sean O'Malley – O’Malley via Decision
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier Prelim Card Predictions:
Lightweight (155lbs): Brad Riddell vs. Jalin Turner – Riddell via KO/TKO
Welterweight (170lbs): Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone – Miller via KO/TKO
Welterweight (170lbs): Ian Garry vs. Gabe Green – Garry via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Brad Tavares vs. Dricus Du Plessis – Du Plessis via KO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier Early Prelim Card Predictions:
Middleweight (185lbs): Uriah Hall vs. André Muniz – Muniz via Submission
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Jessica Eye vs. Maycee Barber – Barber via Decision
(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Jessica-Rose Clark vs. Julija Stoliarenko – Clark via Decision
*Fight card, bout order, and number of fights are subject to change.