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The most exciting method of victory for most UFC fans is always a first-round knockout. Ben Rajavuori shares his best bets for first-round props for UFC 276.
ANALYSIS

UFC 276 Best Bets: Cash In On These Plus Money Alex Pereira, Jim Miller First-Round Prop Bets

The most exciting method of victory for most UFC fans is always a first-round knockout. The crowd goes nuts when two fighters come out swinging and leave it all on the table in the first five minutes. It's not always the smartest way to fight, but the audience loves it. So what better way to watch a UFC card than to bet on a few first-round finishes? Here are my favorite spots to back quick finishes tonight.

UFC 276 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: July 2, 2022

Time: Early Prelims 6:00 pm ET; Prelims 8:00 pm ET; Main 10:00 pm ET

Where To Watch: Early Prelims ESPN, ESPN+; Prelims ABC, ESPN, ESPN+; Main PPV

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UFC 276 Best Bets

First Round Play: Alex Pereira Wins by Round 1 KO @ +410 (Bet $100 to win $410)

I already partly covered this one in my breakdown of the fight in my other article that you can read here. If Pereira wins this fight, I believe there is a 75% chance it's in the first round. If this fight goes to a decision, it means that Strickland took a smart approach to this fight and ground out Pereira with grappling to take a decision win.

However, assuming Strickland will approach this fight with a calculated plan would be naive. Sean Strickland has some underlying need to always put himself in wars in fights he can win easily. If Strickland engages with Pereira's striking early, he will likely eat a nasty shot from one of the best middleweight kickboxers in the world. Pereira is most dangerous in the first round, and after that, I see Strickland taking the fight as it progresses. First-round knockout is the best way to back Pereira in this fight.

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First Round Play: Jim Miller Wins in Round 1 @ +280 (Bet $100 to win $280)

If this fight took place maybe eight years ago before Cerrone lost it, Cowboy would win. Oh, wait... it did. This is actually a rematch of their first head-to-head meeting in 2014 when Cowboy won by second-round knockout. Both men are now at VERY different places in their careers. Cowboy is now 0-5 over his last five fights, and four of the five have come by knockout. He has not lost five fights in a row in his career before, and it is clear that he is losing it. Both men are legends of the sport, but Miller is just in a better spot entering this fight.

Miller is coming off back-to-back knockout wins, and it doesn't appear like his career is coming to a screeching halt like Cerrone's. Cerrone was once an incredibly tough man to put away. Before his five-fight losing streak, Cerrone had 47 professional fights with only three knockout losses. Cerrone also famously takes time to settle into his fights, often starting slow in the first round before rallying in the middle and later into the fight. This had led to three first-round knockout losses over his past five. Jim Miller is conversely a fast starter who fades as the fight progresses.

Miller has finished all six of his last six wins, four of which were in the first round. I think this has been magnified later in his career because he figures the first round is his best chance to win now that he's older. If Miller does win this fight, I think he gets Cerrone out early, whether he makes him tap or go to sleep.

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Article Author

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Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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