UFC 276 Parlay: Tail This Expert's +243 3-Leg Parlay
UFC 276 Parlay: Tail This Expert's +243 3-Leg Parlay
UFC 276 is a stacked card with some of the best fighters the UFC has to offer entering the octagon tonight. With good fighters come high prices, in some cases. We have many fights with juiced lines on this card, sparking the perfect opportunity for a parlay with the best spots. I have three fights packed together to create a +243 parlay for tonight. Let's dig into it.
UFC 276 Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
Date: July 2, 2022
Time: Early Prelims 6:00 pm ET; Prelims 8:00 pm ET; Main 10:00 pm ET
Where To Watch: Early Prelims ESPN, ESPN+; Prelims ABC, ESPN, ESPN+; Main PPV
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Leg 1: Israel Adesanya ML
Let's be honest, did anyone think this wouldn't be on the parlay? Yes, it's the most obvious play of the night, but I do not see Adesanya losing this fight. Canonnier has a puncher's chance, but Adesanya has yet to be finished in the octagon, and his elusive movement is a nearly impossible target to hit cleanly. Outside of the first round, when Cannonier is most fresh, I don't see a knockout as a possibility. Adesanya has yet to be beaten at middleweight, and no one has been able to figure out a path to victory against him. Whittaker and Vettori attempted to beat him with wrestling. It didn't work. This fight will probably pan out like the Costa fight, where Costa had a puncher's chance but couldn't land cleanly or hard enough to put Adesanya away and was knocked out himself. This is a high price tag on Adesanya, but for a good reason. We have the knockout prop in the main event article (which you can read here), but Adesanya ML is an excellent parlay piece for tomorrow night.
Leg 2: Ian Garry/Gabe Green Ends Inside the Distance
Another highly touted prospect will make another show tomorrow night in Ian Garry. Garry is a hyped, young fighter with six finishes in nine fights and a 9-0 overall record. Garry is 2-0 in the UFC and will face an aggressive fighter in Gabe Green. Stylistically, this fight will be a barn-burner.
Ian Garr fights with nearly perfect technique and has the perfect balance of striking and grappling to make it into the rankings at a young age. However, his youth and lack of experience inside the UFC can fog his decision-making. Despite a loss on his record, he has been found over-extending at certain times and leaving his chin high in striking exchanges. We haven't seen him knocked out yet because of it, but we have seen him get cracked.
Gabe Green is the exact type of fighter that can rival Garry. He is highly aggressive inside the octagon and loves to be almost always on the front foot. Ironically, this can be his path to victory or his downfall at the same time. Garry is a technical master with excellent counter strikes, but with chin high, it might only take one shot from Green to knock Garry on his rear end. We saw this power in Green's last fight when he knocked Yonah Lainesse out.
Ian Garry is much better than Lainesse, but Green still displayed his power in that fight. 12 of Green's 14 fights have ended inside the distance due to his aggression, and I believe he will win or lose trying to finish this one before it gets to the judges. I would take Garry ML in this parlay, but until he learns to tuck his chin, there is real potential for him to eat one clean on the chin and go down.
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Leg 3: Jim Miller ML
If you told me Jim Miller would land back-to-back knockout wins at 38 years old after the Joe Solecki fight ended, I would say you're insane, but here we are. As much as I'd like to call Miller "on the decline," you can't help but credit his last two outings. Yes, Erick Gonzalez and Nikolas Motta are not Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone, but at this point, maybe that's a good thing. Donald Cerrone, unlike Jim Miller, has not seen that fire re-light his career.
Cowboy is 0-5 over his last five fights, with four losses coming by knockout. His chin is gone. There's no delicate way to put it. After the first round, Cowboy looks significantly worse. There is no doubt that Cowboy is a legend of the sport, but even though Miller is only one year younger, I can't help but fade Cowboy at this point in his career. Jim Miller, despite being 38, has had all six of his last six wins coming by finish. He is 6-4 over his last ten fights and appears to have a new fire in his fight game. In a battle of legends, I have to fade Cowboy, who may be in his last fight in the octagon.
UFC 276 3-Leg Parlay @ +243 (Bet $100 to win $243)
- Leg One: Israel Adesanya ML
- Leg Two: Ian Garry/Gabe Green Ends Inside the Distance
- Leg Three: Jim Miller ML
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.