Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction, Picks, Odds: Can Hill Finish Santos at UFC Vegas 59?

Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill Prediction, Picks, Odds: Can Hill Finish Santos at UFC Vegas 59?

The main event for tonight's fight night is a clash of light heavyweights, as rising star Jamahal Hill takes on UFC veteran Thiago Santos. Santos is coming off a loss to contender Magomed Ankalaev in a fight he lost by unanimous decision back in March. Jamahal Hill is coming off a first-round knockout over the same opponent Santos got his last win against, Johhny Walker. So what is the best play in this fight? Let's dive into my prediction, pick, and odds for the Santos and Hill fight at UFC Fight Night.

Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Start Time, Where To Watch, and Odds

• Date: August 6, 2022
• Fight Time: 10 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN+

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Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Prediction

The Johnny Walker fight speaks volumes about where each of these guys is at in their careers. For Thiago Santos, it was basically a gimme fight, and he took the fight to a five-round decision, even though he did win. For Hill, he had a five-round fight scheduled with Walker and ended up putting his lights out two minutes into the first. This tells us two things. First, Santos is on the decline in his career, even though he has fought some killers recently. Second, it tells us just how good Hill is.

Jamahal Hill has some of the fastest hands in the light heavyweight division. He is a taller and lankier light heavyweight, but he uses this frame to land his snapping jabs that land with intense power. All three of Hill's last three wins have come by knockout. Hill's only loss on his record was from an arm break against Paul Craig, which was mostly a fluke, although Hill overextended a bit. Still, Hill has looked exceptional in the UFC, and his hand speed and power behind his punches are something else.

It seems like forever ago, but Thiago Santos was a split decision away from dethroning UFC champion Jon Jones just three years ago. Many people argue that Santos won the fight, but in title fights, judges tend to side with defending champions when it goes to the scorecards in a close fight. Since then, Santos has lost three of his last four fights, making him 1-4 in his past five overall. Maybe it's a mental thing for Santos, but he just hasn't looked like the killer who landed three straight knockouts to get his title shot. He's also 38 and has been in wars for nearly a decade, so it could just be the fights wearing on him. We've seen it happen to many UFC vets before.

Jamahal Hill has averaged 7.06 significant strikes per minute inside the UFC and has looked unbeatable, except in his unexpected loss to Paul Craig. Thiago Santos is a killer who had an incredible run in the UFC and will always have my respect, but unfortunately, Hill is the younger fighter on the come-up with crazy fast hands and power behind them. The over-under on this fight is set at 1.5, and that isn't because they expect Santos to knock Hill out. Take Hill to land a big shot early in this one.

Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Pick

Play: Jamahal Hill by KO @ -140 (Bet $140 to win $100)

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