UFC Odds, Picks, Prediction: Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa

UFC Odds, Picks, Prediction: Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa

Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa will meet in the octagon of the main event of UFC Paris this afternoon, with the winner likely getting the next title shot. I already broke down my play for this fight in a premium article, but I have a prop that has caught my attention heavily. Ciryl Gane is about -575 to win this fight, but this prop maximizes our chance for a better return on our investment.  Let's get into my prediction, pick, and odds for Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa.

Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: September 3, 2022

Time: 3:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Click Here for Gane vs Tuivasa odds

Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa Prediction

Ciryl Gane now holds a professional record of 10-1 after losing the title fight against Ngannou. Gane was 7-0 in the UFC before the loss to Ngannou and can potentially earn a rematch with a win in Paris. Gane is probably the most well-rounded and athletic fighter in the heavyweight division at the moment. Gane has excellent cardio and fights like a middleweight, staying light on his feet and utilizing a full array of different combos and leg kicks. Although he hasn't used it much recently, Gane is also a fantastic grappler who has three submission wins as well. Gane's grappling was seen more earlier in his professional career, but I suspect we see a return of Gane's mat skills today.

Despite having only 11 fights at 32 years old, Ciryl Gane is a well-versed fighter who looks like a veteran of the sport. He is calculated in his approach to every fight and doesn't let himself get drawn into a firefight. He uses the first round to read his opponents before making his move to win the fight. Although he does not have the best power, he is excellent at combining strikes to the body and head to overwhelm his opponents once he has made his reads. I expect this to magnify over a five-round fight with Tuivasa.

Tai Tuivasa doesn't even know what the word "defense" means. Tai Tuivasa throws caution to the wind in basically every fight, and it has worked out for him recently, as he is on a five-five unbeaten streak with five-straight knockout wins. Now, Tuivasa is on the brink of a title shot if he lands one more knockout blow. Can he do it against Ciryl Gane? I don't think so. To start, Ciryl Gane has proved to be extremely durable inside the octagon. It is widely agreed that Francis Ngannou is the hardest hitter in the UFC, and Gane went five hard rounds with Ngannou without getting knocked out. Tuivasa's power is comparable, but I don't think he hits harder than Ngannou, and if Gane could go five hard rounds with Ngannou, I expect him to be able to do the same with Tuivasa.

What I expect from Tuivasa is what he has done in basically every fight: start fast and keep throwing until his opponent is unconscious. However, what will happen if he doesn't knock Gane out within the first two to three rounds? He will then essentially be a sitting duck as his cardio becomes his downfall. Gane has a significant cardio advantage in this fight, which is how I believe he wins. Tuivasa has a great chin himself, and Gane isn't the most powerful hitter, so I don't expect a knockout from Gane, but I think he could find the tap-out once Tuivasa starts to slow down.

Once the championship rounds hit, Gane should roll. Tuivasa was subbed by a great grappler in Serghei Spivac and hasn't faced anyone with similar grappling credentials since. The opportunity for someone to submit has not been there, but this is Tuivasa's first five-round fight, and he is fighting someone who can go five hard rounds. I expect Gane to use the grappling we saw earlier in his career in the later rounds once Tuivasa has slowed down. The line on this is being overlooked by the books and is overpriced. Take Tuivasa to tap today.

Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa Picks

• Gane Wins by Sub @ +600 (Bet $100 to win $600)
• Gane Wins by Sub in Rounds 3, 4, or 5 @ +1700 (Bet $100 to win $1700)

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