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Ben Rajavuori makes his picks and predictions for the Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini fight. Will we see Damon Jackson pull off the upset tonight at UFC Fight Night?

Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini Prediction: Can Damon Jackson Pull the Upset?

Pat Sabatini vs Damon Jackson Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

Date: Saturday, September 17

Start Time: 4:00 pm ET

Where to Watch: ESPN+

Click Here for Sabatini vs Jackson Odds

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Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini Prediction

The last fight on the prelims will feature two excellent grapplers when Pat Sabatini and Damon Meet in the octagon on the prelims of UFC Fight Night 210. Damon "Action" Jackson fights out of Fortis MMA and sports a 21-4-1 record in his professional career, with 15 of those wins coming by submission. Pat Sabatini has an impressive record of 17-3 and is 4-0 in the UFC. Sabatini has 10 of his 17 wins by way of submission. Which man stands the better chance in this fight? The books think it is Pat Sabatini, as the line has floated around -200 this week, with the comeback on Jackson sitting around +165. Is this line too high?

Pat Sabatini has looked impressive in the UFC. He has yet to lose, but let's look at who he was fighting. In his Debut, he beat Tristan Connelly. Connelly is 14-8 in his career and is 1-2 inside the UFC. Then, he beat Jamall Emmers, who is now 1-2 in the UFC and may be cut. Next was Tucker Lutz, who is 1-1 in the UFC and has not fought since his fight against Sabatini. Most recently, Sabatini beat TJ Laramie, who is 0-2 in the UFC and also has not fought since his loss to Sabatini. The theme here is Sabatini has been beating up on guys early in their UFC career. Damon Jackson is anything but that. This will prove to be a significant step up in competition for Sabatini that the odds are not accurately reflecting.

This is Damon Jackson's second stint in the UFC after going 0-1-2 in his first three-fight stint. His second time around, things are going a lot better. Jackson is 4-1 since re-joining the promotion, and his only was a knockout loss to undefeated prospect Ilia Topuria. Jackson has only lost two of his last ten fights, and he has been fighting better opponents than Sabatini. Jackson's win over Charles Rosa was better than any of Sabatini's wins, and he has submitted 15 of his 21 wins. Grappling will be the preferred method of fighting for both men tonight.

Both Sabatini and Jackson are predominant Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighters with high levels of talent on the mat. This explains why both men have racked up so many submission wins. Both fighters average less than 2.5 strikes per minute, and both have averaged over 2.5 takedowns per fight in the UFC. Needless to say, this fight will hit the mat multiple times.

Damon Jackson's cardio is the one advantage I think is most necessary in this fight. Grappling is tiring, especially spending entire rounds on the mat. Sabatini has shown to have a short gas tank in his fight and has slowed down in the late second and early third numerous times. This is something Jackson can expose. Jackson has excellent cardio and can go hard for a full fifteen minutes if needed. He has late-second round and early third-round submissions on his record already since re-joining the UFC, and I could see it happening again tonight. Jackson will be the fresher fighter late in this fight, and he is always live for a late submission and is never fully out of a fight. Jackson finishes this one late.

Damon Jackson vs. Pat Sabatini Pick

Pick: Damon Jackson ML @ +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)

Pick: Damon Jackson by Sub @ +900 (Bet $100 to win $900)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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