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Expert Picks and Analysis for this Weekend's UFC on ESPN+ 10: Dos Anjos vs. Lee

When: Saturday May 18th 2019

What Time: Main Card: from 8pm ET on ESPN+

Prelims: from 6pm ET on ESPN+

Early Prelims: from 5pm on UFC Fight Pass

Where: Blue Cross Arena, Rochester, New York

This weekend the UFC heads into Rochester New York for a card that has low expectations but certainly room for profit! Let’s jump into this week’s UFC picks!

Submission Parlay:

Davi Ramos takes on UFC newcomer and LFA Lightweight Champion Austin Hubbard. Hubbard has a record of 10-2-0, with his loses coming from a decision and a submission. LFA champions generally prove to be tough customers, with decent pedigree, and I expect Hubbard to follow suit, although when coming up against someone with Ramos’ background, it’s hard to foresee him coming out on top in this one. Davi Ramos won gold in the 2015 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championships at his 170lbs weight-class. He’s got a good head on him and he knows where he best finds success. Even if Hubbard’s submission defence has significantly improved since his sub loss in September of 2016, the levels of grappling won’t even be close between the two. I expect Ramos to get on him for the off and I think he racks-up his 8th submission victory of his career here.

1st Leg of Parlay: Davi Ramos via Submission @-150

In a lightweight rematch of their 2015 featherweight bout, Nik “The Carnie” Lentz takes on Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira. Lenz always takes on the same wrestling heavy approach to every one of his fights, the issue with this match-up for him however is that Oliveira is not the man anyone should engage in a grappling affair with. “Do Bronx” now holds the record in the UFC for the most submission victories at a remarkable 13. With him now competing at lightweight his gas tank appears to be better than ever, and this is showing in his 4 back-to-back victories. He has a deadly guillotine choke in his locker, which proved to be end to their first fight over 4 years ago, but realistically he could catch Lenz in a number of different fight ending holds.

2nd Leg of Parlay: Charles Oliveira via Submission @-162

1u - 2 Leg Submission Parlay: Davi Ramos + Charles Oliveira @+172

Main Card Bout: Women’s Featherweight (145lbs): Megan Anderson (8-3-0) vs. Felicia “Feenom” Spencer (6-0-0):

Aussie Megan Anderson takes on the undefeated Canadian Felicia Spencer in one of the UFC’s rare featherweight women’s bouts. Megan Anderson has seen money pile into her this week causing her line to climb significantly. It’s been an odd movement and one I feel is pretty unwarranted. Anderson has shown glaring deficiencies on the mat as displayed by the grappling clinic bantamweight kickboxer Holly Holm put on her less than a year ago. Since then she got a controversial finish over Cat Zingano in a match-up that seemed unfavorable to her, prior to the fortunate eye poke that ended their bout.

Spencer has gone 6-0 in her pro career, with all wins coming in the all-women’s promotion Invicta. I’m not overly familiar with Spencer’s fight history, but anyone who brings a grappling style offence to Anderson could cause her problems. Although both ladies have more finishes on their record than decisions, I believe Spencer will get the better of Anderson in the grappling exchanges, and with her being undefeated it could be tough for Anderson to put her away in return. We’re just going to take the fight to go the distance at a health plus number and have a stab on Spencer via Decision in a bout that looks very suitable to her skill set.

1u – Fight Goes The Distance @+130

0.5u – Felicia Spencer by Decision or Technical Decision @+500

Main Event – Welterweight (170lbs): #3 Rafael Dos Anjos vs. (LW) #5 Kevin “The Motown Phenom” Lee:

In Rochester’s main event, we have the two former lightweights in ‘RDA’ and Kevin Lee. Both guys have now transitioned to welterweight following tough weight cuts which proved detrimental towards the end of their lightweight spells. Both seemed to suffer from chin weaknesses and hindered gas tanks, with many believing their moves could put an end to these issue. In Dos Anjos’ case, this holds significant water, although his new challenge is when fighting significantly bigger wrestlers, as seen in his bouts with Colby Covington and UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman.

The questions on most people’s minds however is “what will Kevin Lee look like at 170lbs”? There was no mistaking what his shortcomings were at 155lbs, and you’d have to imagine this will help with those, but to what extent? Will we see the Kevin Lee that finished Edson Barboza in an outstanding display, or will we see a slightly more invigorated Lee that will still fall slightly short like he did against Al Iaquinta?

For me I think Lee will look better, but RDA isn’t quite done yet in my book. Kevin Lee is a wrestler, yes, but he isn’t anywhere near the level of Colby or Usman. I’d expect him to try and engage with Dos Anjos although RDA has the persistence and pressure to keep this fight standing and counteract Lee. I could be wrong and Lee could look like a completely different fighter, one that many of us what to see him be, but RDA is not to be looked lightly upon. Many will be down on him following two flat performances, but when he isn’t fighting the elite of the elite wrestlers, he gets the job done at 170. We’re taking Rafael Dos Anjos to bounce back and beat Kevin Lee, most likely via decision but I wouldn’t rule out a finish should Lee still show gas tank issues.

1u – Rafael Dos Anjos @-110

By Christian Broughton

Article Author


A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.


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