Saturday July 13th 2019 at the Golden1 Centre in Sacramento, California
Main Card: 8pm ET on ESPN+
Prelims: 5pm ET on ESPN+
Following back-to-back profits, we’re streaking once again! Last week’s UFC: 239 provided us with a healthy 76% ROI, a number of fun fights, as well as a multitude of devastating finishes. This week we now look ahead to UFC: Sacramento for a card which doesn’t encourage much fanfare, but plenty of good betting spots… Let’s get into this week’s picks for UFC on ESPN+ 13: De Randamie vs. Ladd!
Preliminary Card Featherweight (145lbs) Bout - #15 Darren “The Damage” Elkins (24-7-0) vs. Ryan “The Wizard” Hall (7-1-0):
Elkins versus Hall is an intriguing fight, and one that I’m a little surprised to see on the prelims of a relatively unstacked card. Elkins is a durable wrestler with a decent stand-up game, which is certainly at a higher level than Hall’s. “The Damage” is known for his ability to take damage, rather than dish it out, but nevertheless, his toughness stands true, and that’s seen nine of his last twelve go to a decision.
Hall is known for his world-class BJJ skills, yet his striking yields little danger to anyone in the UFC. Hall is likely going to struggle getting Elkins down to the mat due to his inferior wrestling, and because of this I think we’re going to see Elkins take over this fight in the stand up. There’s a chance that we see this end go to the ground, but in the event that this happens, we may just see Elkins maintain top position.
In any case, I think Hall’s submission game won’t be effective, as Elkins’ submission defense has held up very well over the course of his career, and Hall’s been prone to going the distance in the past, even when facing lesser fighters than Elkins. It sounds like we’re going to be making a play on Elkins, but I see more value on this one going the distance. I wouldn’t be against taking some Elkins, or him to win a decision, but I like the plus number here on this going the full fifteen, as I’m struggling to see either finishing each other.
1u – Fight Goes The Distance @+110
Prelim/Co-Main Event - Two Leg Parlay:
Preliminary Card Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Andre “Touchy” Fili (19-6-0) vs. Sheymon Moraes (11-3-0):
This fight has seen action come in on both sides of it since the line came out. It’s made me question my pick a little, but all things considered, I still like it, and now I have a better price than when it opened.
Andre Fili is a fighter I’ve liked to bet for a number of years now, but this time I’m siding with Moraes. Fili may offer high output, decent stamina and some wrestling, but Sheymon counters well and does so with power. He’s had a few tough outs since joining, but he’s managed to do himself a lot of justice against some top comp. He holds wins over Julio Arce and Matt Sayles, which are two fighters who are around, if not, at a higher level than that of Fili.
I think Sheymon’s power will keep Fili humble, and his takedown defense should be good enough to keep this one standing for the most part. Fili may hold the height and reach, but Sheymon’s power and accuracy should see him get the win here, probably via decision, but a TKO wouldn’t shock me either.
1st Leg of Parlay – Sheymon Moraes @-110
Co-Main Event Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Urijah “The California Kid” Faber (34-10-0) vs. #15 Ricky Simón (15-1-0):
“The California Kid” is back! Uriah Faber is returning following a 2.5 year absence from the cage. He’s been active with grappling bouts and coaching at Team Alpha Male, but all things said and done, he’s now 40 and fighting a hot prospect in Ricky Simon.
Simon has got the wrestling chops to defend from Faber’s once elite wrestling and he’s got the speed to ‘piece him up on the feet’. Faber’s key to victory looks to be from a punchers chance or a Hail Mary submission. Both seem unlucky given that Simon has never been KO/TKO’ed, and he’s just off the back of a dominant victory against the best BJJ black belt in the UFC’s BW division. It makes me sad to say it, but it’s very difficult to see anything other than a Ricky Simon victory here.
2nd Leg of Parlay – Ricky Simón @-300
1.5u – Sheymon Moraes + Ricky Simón @+154
Main Event Women’s Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – #1 Germaine “The Iron Lady” de Randamie (8-3-0) vs. #4 Aspen Ladd (8-0-0):
In Sacramento’s main event we see former UFC women’s featherweight champion Germaine de Randamie (or GDR), facing the young undefeated Aspen Ladd. De Randamie holds a kickboxing background, boasting a 37-0 record and multiple world titles within the sport. She’s ferocious at range and sharp when exchanging in the clinch. Her opponent, Ladd has looked outstanding in the UFC and her strong build has proved to be a nightmare for the women at 135lbs. She’s strong in the clinch and imposing on the ground.
It’s hard to suggest what holes Ladd’s game bears, but it’s easy to say that she will be the less effective striker given GDR’s history. Providing GDR can use her adequate takedown defense and keep stamina over the five rounds, I think we should see her doing work on her feet. It’s hard to say what Ladd’s cardio will look like over 25 minutes as we’ve never seen her over that distance, but at least we’ve seen de Randamie keep a pace over that time in her victory over Holly Holm.
It’s understandable why Ladd is the favorite in this one, but I’d be lying if I said she was deserving of a -164 price tag over someone of “The Iron Lady’s” calibre. For that reason, we’re going to take de Randamie here, as I think +140 is just too wide and it’s well worth a heavy two unit value play.
2u – Germaine de Randamie @+140