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Expert Picks and Analysis for this Weekend's UFC 240: Holloway vs Edgar

Saturday July 27th 2019 at Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta Canada

Main Card: 10pm ET on Pay-Per-View

Preliminary Card: 8pm ET on ESPN

Early Preliminary Card: 6:15pm ET on ESPN+

It’s only been a week, but we’re back and fresh off the profit-streak breaking UFC San Antonio. This week we look to get back on track, as we move up to the great white north, for UFC 240 in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada! There aren’t a lot of positive things to say for this PPV, but there is still a couple of fun fight, including a future UFC Hall of Famer showdown in the main event… oh, and a few value spots to dig up some profit. Let’s get into this week’s picks for UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar!

Early Prelim Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout - Sarah “A Treta” Frota (9-1-0) vs. Gillian “The Savage” Robertson (6-3-0):

In the early prelim featured bout, we have the hard hitting Brazilian Sarah Frota, take on the Canadian grappler Gillian Roberson. Straight off the bat, I was leaning Frota for this one, she hits hard and has a history of finishing her opponents. I have made money in the past off Robertson’s submission game and grappling, although her UFC wins have largely come against female fighters that were not well enough equipped to deal with her specific skill set.

I’m a little tentative taking Frota on the moneyline, as judging north of the border, can be more ‘questionable’ than usual, meaning that Robertson as the home country fighter may get an unwarranted edge.

I like Frota to get a finish here. She has a solid history of TKO and submission wins, albeit back on the Brazilian regional scene, but even still, we’ve also seen Robertson succumb to pressure and give up submissions of her own. We’re going to take Frota to get this done in the first two rounds at a healthy plus number.

1u – Sarah Frota in either Round 1 or 2 @+225

Main Card Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Krzysztof Jotko (20-4-0) vs. Marc-André “Power Bar” Barriault (11-2-0):

We now jump up to the main card opener for a bout that could go down to the wire. I have to say, I do like Jotko’s tools, but at this current price, I have to side with M.A.B. Barriault brings in a well-rounded game, although has a slight grappling deficit to the Polish Jotko. What I do look towards in favor of Barriault however, is his durability and power. Jotko’s done very well in his past UFC fights, but has then been let down by his questionable ability to take a beating. The Canadian should be able to contend with him reasonably well in the grappling, and in doing so, this should open the door for him to land some big shots. If M.A.B doesn’t find a finish, some of that “questionable” Canadian judging may just get this one over the line. We’re going to take the home town boy Marc-André Barriault to get the W on the moneyline at a juicy +144.

1.5u – Marc-André Barriault @+144

Co-Main Event – Women’s Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – Cris “Cyborg” Justino (20-2-0) vs. Felicia “Feenom” Spencer (7-0-0):

Edmonton’s co-main event sees the return of former featherweight champ Cris Cyborg, take on Canadian undefeated rising-star Felicia Spencer. I like what Spencer brings to the table with her BJJ skills, but unfortunately they’re likely to be second best in this one.

Prior to her loss of her UFC Women’s Featherweight title, Cyborg had been sat atop her division (across all promotions) for over a decade. She achieved that with her sheer strength and power, as well as her willingness to compete. Although her own undefeated streak (since her first loss in her very first fight) has now come to an end, I have no doubt she’ll still be bringing it as hard as ever.

Spencer should be out matched everywhere here. I’m not sure of her wresting calibre, but Cyborg’s should really be good enough to stop anything she might attempt, providing Spencer could even close the distance on her. If this were able to make it to the ground Cyborg should also have the better BJJ, which is Spencer’s really only key to victory. I have a couple of doubts over Cyborg’s BJJ as we haven’t seen her go for a sub in a long time, and recently she’s looked a bit sloppy when on the canvas, but that could very well be due to her wantingness to strike, instead of hangout on the mat.

Cyborg will likely close in on Spencer and pretty much have here way with her on the feet. Spencer may be tough, but that’s yet to be seen, and what has been seen is the ruthless speed and power Cyborg holds in her hands. We’re taking Cyborg to get this one done quickly at -137.

1u – Cris Cyborg Round 1 @-137

Main Event Featherweight (145lbs) Bout – (C) Max “Blessed” Holloway (20-4-0) vs. #4 Frankie “The Answer” Edgar (23-6-1):

Probably this card’s one true redeeming factor is its main event, only hindered by Holloway’s recent loss when contending for the lightweight belt, and Edgar’s semi-recent brutal KO loss to Brian Ortega. Nevertheless, this is one hell of a fight, and it’s been long overdue, as it’s been called off multiple times over the past couple years. Let’s get into the match-up.

Holloway will seek to use his volume striking and keep himself at length from the much shorter, yet longer reaching, Frankie Edgar. The Hawaiian will step forward and will hunt down Edgar. In response “The Answer” will use his patented style of evasive stepping and head movement, whilst attempting level changes, to get secure a takedown on his taller opponent.

Although I see Edgar having a little success with his takedowns, I really see this being a one sided decision that sees Holloway land relentlessly with calculated and well-timed shots. Both men have outstanding durability, and I don’t feel like either possess that one shot, or high-level submission game to finish one another. We’re going to make a small play on Holloway to win via decision. He’s a different animal at FW, and his game plans are as effective as they come when in his desired weight-class.   

0.5u – Max Holloway via Decision @+240

By Christian Broughton

Article Author


A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.


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