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Expert picks and analysis for this weekend's UFC on ESPN 5 Covington vs Lawler

Saturday August 3rd 2019 at Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey

Main Card: 5pm ET on ESPN

Preliminary Card: 12pm ET on ESPN

The UFC is back once again this weekend, as they set up in Newark, New Jersey for their seventh straight week of fights! Last week’s UFC 240 was pretty lacking in both entertainment and profit. There was one or two fun fights, most notably Geoff Neal vs. Niko Price, but aside from that, there wasn’t a whole lot on show. This week we look onwards to the UFC’s 5th ESPN main card instalment for a night of fights I think many are overlooking and a main event that will surely get the MMA community talking, whatever the result. Let’s jump into this week’s UFC Newark: Covington vs. Lawler!

Main Card/Co-Main 2-Leg Parlay:

We’re going to be jumping straight up to Newark’s main card to kick-off this week’s picks, and we’re going to do so with a two leg parlay!

Main Card Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert (29-11-0) vs. Trevin “The Problem” Giles (11-1-0):

This bout promises fireworks with the ever entertaining GM3 taking on Trevin Giles in a middleweight fight that could hand the winner a shot at a top 15 opponent. Meerschaert fights always produce a sweat for any bettor, as his tendency to either finish or get finished typically produces ass-clenchingly back-and-forth contests.

Trevin Giles’ fights tend to be more stable, with him using his well-round skills to wear down his opponents and getting late finishes. I’ll be taking Giles here. He may be coming off his first loss, but he’s a game fighter, and I don’t see it playing much of a factor on him mentally. GM3 will struggle to hurt him on the feet with his inferior striking, and Giles’ wrestling will ultimate keep the fight wherever he wants it. Minus 166 is a nice line, and one I feel very comfortably about taking in a parlay with a side in the co-main.

1st Leg of Parlay: Trevin Giles @ -166

Co-Main Event Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (35-18-0) vs. Jim “A-10” Miller (30-13-0):

We’re going to taking ol’ faithful Jim Miller to get one over on his fellow veteran Clay Guida, as the second leg of our parlay.

Miller has had questions lingering over his head about his Lyme disease, but quite frankly, it doesn’t seem to have changed him at all as a fighter. Any of his recent loses can be way more attributed to the talent of his younger opposition, rather than anything medical.

Guida on the other hand just came out of a “semi-competitive” fight against the ghost of B.J. Penn… it’s not a great look. Yes “The Carpenter” still has outstanding cardio, but his age seems to be catching up with him a little more so than Miller.

I think Jim Miller gets this done with an early sub over the submission-susceptible Guida, who’s now recorded half of his 18 losses by submission. Miller’s credentials as a solid BJJ black belt, should prove to be the deciding factor in this one, and the factor I believe will win him the fight.

2nd Leg of Parlay: Jim Miller @ -137

1u Parlay - Trevin Giles + Jim Miller @ +172

Main Card Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Joaquim “Netto BJJ” Silva (11-1-0) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (10-2-0):

Sliding back down the main card, we now go to a very intriguing lightweight prospects bout between Joaquim Silva and Nasrat Haqparast.

Haqparast’s stock is fast on the rise following his two impressive wins over Marc Diakiese and Thibault Goudti. A win here over Silva would likely set him up for a crack at a ranked opponent in his next bout. He has a solid game all round, and mixed in with his seemingly good durability, it could be a winning combination for him. Although, even with my own estimation of him meeting others’, this line is simply off to me.

Joaquim Silva is a beast in his own right. His striking’s a little sloppy, but damn does he hit hard for a 155er. He himself has a decent ground game, and durability. So when looking at this on paper it’s likely going to be a lot closer of a contest that where this line has it at. I think Silva could finish Haqparast here if something opens up for him, and failing that I think he stands a chance to win it on the scorecards, even with his lesser cardio. It’s a big plus number and one I’m happily lay 1.5 units on for the sheer value.  

1.5u – Joaquim Silva @ +215

Main Event Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – #2 Colby “Chaos” Covington (14-1-0) vs. #11 “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler (28-13-0):

In our main event we have the ever controversial, former interim welterweight champion Colby Covington facing former welterweight champ “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler.

Robbie’s renowned for having decent wrestling and ferocious hands. That being said however, Covington’s wrestling is a very different story to anything Lawler’s had to face in the past. I expect Covington’s grappling and pressure to overwhelm and breakdown Lawler, kind of similar to RDA’s win over him nearly two years ago.

For this reason I don’t hate playing Colby at -205 on the moneyline, but in the interest of value, I have a small play I like a little bit more.

Lawler’s main key to victory is the early KO/TKO, he has other routes, but this is clearly his main means of victory. Covington’s stand-up isn’t great, as we saw when he struggles against BJJ expert Damian Maia in their fight.

If Lawler can stuff a takedown and create separation, I wouldn’t be shocked if he caught Colby with something similar to how he caught Ben Askren (although Askren’s takedown entries are slower). Robbie has the gas tank to stay fresh through two rounds, even against the pressure Covington will be throwing at him.

I think Robbie Lawler to win in either round 1 or 2 is an outstanding bet at nearly 5-to-1. He should have opportunities in that time, so it’s well worth the half unit stab on the Ruthless One to get the early stoppage.  

0.5u – Robbie Lawler in Either Round 1 or 2 @ +475

By Christian Broughton

Article Author


A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.


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