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Expert picks and analysis for this weekend's UFC on ESPN+ 14: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2

Saturday August 10rd 2019 at Antel Arena, Montevideo, Uruguay

Main Card: 8pm ET on ESPN+

Preliminary Card: 5pm ET on ESPN+

This week the UFC heads down to South America, to host their first ever event in Uruguay, right in the nation’s capital of Montevideo!

Last week’s UFC: Newark had some very fun fights, and packing in a solid eight finishes on the twelve fight card. There were some statements made by a few unranked fighters, but the main talking point was Colby Covington’s domination over fan favorite “Ruthless” Robbie Lawler. His 5 round, largely wrestling based clinic, should now have clinched his long awaited Undisputed UFC Welterweight title bout, with “The Nigerian Nightmare” Kamaru Usman.

Moving onto Saturday’s UFC event, we have got one of the rare non-PPV cards, headlined by a title fight, with the rematch of Valentina Shevchenko and Liz Carmouche for the UFC 125lb strap. The rest of the other 12 bouts are largely made up of South American fighters, to draw in the fans from nearby countries. It’s also worth noting that there’s one Uruguayan fighter, Luiz Eduardo Garagorri, who yields a 12-0 record, entering into his UFC debut against Humberto Bandenay on the main card.

Anyway, enough of the breakdowns, let’s jump into this week’s UFC picks for UFC on ESPN+ 14: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2!

Prelim Opener – Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Polyana “Poly” Viana (10-3-0) vs. Veronica Macedo (5-3-1):

The card’s opening bout sees Venezuelan fighter Veronica Macedo take on her late notice, fighting up a weight class opponent, Polyana Viana. Now, this would seem pretty damning for Viana’s chances considering she’s stepping up on less than two weeks notice, and fighting at flyweight, as opposed to strawweight, but I still give her the edge in this bout.

Macedo has struggled since making it into the UFC, having gone 0-3, with two of her loses being finishes. It’s clear that she has major deficiencies on the mat, but on top of that, I still don’t rate her striking that much either.

Despite Viana fighting a 125lbs opponent, she will still hold a three inch advantage in both height and reach. She will also carry in a substantially more well-rounded ground game, and striking that should contend well against Macedo’s on the feet.

I understand that cardio could be a concern as Viana hasn’t had a full camp, but realistically she has all the skills to win this, and even potentially put away Macedo. The fact that she’s sitting as plus-money against a 0-3 UFC fighter, who hasn’t shown a whole lot, is pretty astounding to me. I’ve put a heavy 2.5 units on here to get the W here, and I shall await to see if Macedo’s got what it takes to prove me wrong.

2.5u – Polyana Viana @+106

Co-Main Event – Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque (16-6-1) vs. Mike “Platinum” Perry (13-4-0):

Jumping right up to the card’s co-main event, we have two fan favorites, both currently sitting on the fringes of the UFC welterweight rankings. Luque comes into the bout on a five fight win streak having gone 9-1 in his last ten, with all his wins coming via stoppages. “Platinum” Mike has had a slightly less impressive run in his last ten having gone 6-4, although he’s faced arguably the better competition.

This fight is being anticipated as a banger, and a potentially back-and-forth slug-fest, which will likely see both fighters take their fair share of knocks. Although this will looks to be the case, neither fighter has been finished via strikes, and that’s why I like this to go to a decision. My biggest concern perhaps is that Luque holds the BJJ advantage, and when he hunts out a submission, he can become a real treat on the mat. This being said though, I also think Perry’s BJJ is a little underrated, and he’s previously shown a good ability to defend whenever he’s on his back. Mix that in with his decent enough takedown defense, and this fight should take place on the feet.

Perry’s durability has been nothing short of amazing, and although Luque has been clipped a couple times in the past, his chin has held up to everything also. This will be a bit of a sweat, but that doesn’t mean that it doesn’t represent decent value. I’m going to lay a little over a unit on this one making it to the scorecards, and it being one hell of a fight.

1.25u – Fight Goes the Distance @+155

Main Event – UFC Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Title Bout – (C) Valentina “The Bullet” Shevchenko (17-3-0) vs. #3 Liz “Girl-Rilla” Carmouche (13-6-0):

In the main event, we have the second meeting of Shevchenko and Carmouche. These two both initially met in something called a “C3 Fights”, way back in 2010. That bout saw Liz Carmouche get here hand raised, by a referee stoppage due to a cut on Shevchenko. Since then, that has been the, now flyweight champ’s only stoppage loss, and her career has only really gone from strength to strength since.

In this fight I give the wrestling advantage to Carmouche, and pretty much everything else to Shevchenko, which the books seem to agree with, as “The Bullet” currently sits as the -1111 favorite. I wouldn’t advocate anyone taking that line, even in parlays, but I also wouldn’t suggest taking the +750 on Carmouche either. The line seems pretty much unplayable from both sides, and because of this I’ve gone for a nice prop that I see value in instead.

I’m going to take this to go the full 25 minutes, at a very decent plus number. Both girls are durable, and excluding that doctor stoppage in their first fight, neither have been stopped due to strikes. Add in that Carmouche doesn’t offer much of a submission threat, and Valentina doesn’t either, this poses nicely as a long drawn-out affair, with Shevchenko likely picking up the decision.

1.5u – Fight Goes the Distance @+190

By Christian Broughton

Article Author


A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.


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