Feb 13 2020, 9:23am | 4 min read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2

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MMA expert Christian Broughton give his picks & predictions for this weekend’s card, UFC on ESPN+ 25: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2

ANALYSIS

Bet of the Card: (3u) Casey Kenney @ +150 (to Return 5 Units)

Casey Kenney vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Preliminary Card Men’s Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time 5:40 p.m. EST

Casey Kenney’s had 11 passes and 4 sweeps in only his first two UFC bouts (according to UFC.com)

This fight will be intriguing to watch as two of the UFC’s best bantamweight prospects collide.

Merab Dvalishvili is a Serra Jiu-Jitsu/Serra-Longo product whose style centers around a heavy wrestling base with quick striking and crazy volume. He’s 2-2 in the UFC and is currently riding a two-fight win streak. Despite his initial two losses, his ever-improving style is very difficult to stop, but I expect Casey Kenney to do just that.

Kenney’s start in martial arts came from judo, where he’s a 2nd degree black belt and nine-time USA national judo champion. Although his game has now rounded out, his judo base provides him with an ability to sweep his opponents when in close grappling exchanges. His wrestling might not be on the level of Merab’s but his excellent ability to sweep and scramble means he’s able to reverse grappling transitions and pass into dominant positions of his own, something we saw him do multiple times against former UFC flyweight title challenger, Ray Borg.

Merab’s pace and volume will present problems but his inability to secure takedowns and ground out Kenney on the mat will turn this into a dog fight, the likes of which we’ve seen Kenney thrive in before.

Kenney is my play for this fight, he reached an astounding +190 earlier in the week, but since then the price has dropped back down to around the +150 mark. Even with his declining price tag, I like him here as a good value underdog.

(2u) Corey Anderson @ -200 (to Return 3 Units)

Corey Anderson vs. Jan Blachowicz

Main Event Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time 11 p.m. EST

Corey Anderson averages some insane numbers for a light heavyweight (LHW); 4.98 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, 2.18 significant strikes absorbed per minute (lowest among active LHW), & 4.45 significant strikes landed per minute (all stats per UFCStats.com).

Rio Rancho’s main event is a rematch between Corey “Overtime” Anderson and Poland’s Jan Błachowicz.

The first time these guys fought was way back in September 2015. The fight was a dominant unanimous decision victory for Anderson, with two judges awarding him with 30-25 scorecards. The first round was close, with Blachowicz initially edging the striking before he then looked to engage Anderson in the grappling, that ultimately proved to be the beginning of the end for Jan. Anderson got taken down but then reversed position and began to implement his crushing pressure and wrestling on Blachowicz. This allowed him to squeak out the first round, before taking full command of the fight for the remaining two rounds.

Both fights have improved since then, but Anderson’s development has progressed significantly more than Jan’s. His striking is now crisper with substantially better head movement, as seen in his round 1 TKO victory over Johnny Walker back in November (pictured above). That win saw him put on a rare striking clinic, something no-one expected from someone whose game plans have been so historically wrestling orientated. He appears to be the complete package now, his wrestling and striking are amongst the best in the LHW division and combined with his unrelenting cardio, it makes him a monster to deal with.

Corey Anderson is my pick for the main event, he opened at around -145 back in December and is now hovering at the -200 mark. I expect him to utilize his grappling and ground & pound to wear on Blachowicz, ultimately ending in another lopsided decision victory or a late TKO stoppage.

Event: UFC on ESPN+ 25: Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2 / UFC Fight Night 167

Location & Venue: Santa Ana Star Center, Rio Rancho, New Mexico

Date: Saturday, February 15th, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 8 p.m. EST, Prelims 5 p.m. EST

Where to watch: Watch both the Main Card & Prelims over on the ESPN streaming service: ESPN+