Feb 20, 4:29am | 4 min read

UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Felder vs. Hooker

Share to Facebook

Share to Twitter

Copy Link

MMA expert Christian Broughton gives his picks & predictions for this weekend’s card, UFC on ESPN+ 26: Felder vs. Hooker

ANALYSIS

BET OF THE CARD: (2.5u) Jim Crute @ +132 (to Return 5.8 Units)

Jim Crute vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Co-Main Event Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time 9 p.m. EST

The Australian Jim Crute is making the short trip to New Zealand for this fight, whereas Michal Oleksiejczuk will be travelling over 10,000 miles from his home nation of Poland.

We kick things off with my favorite bet on the card, Jimmy Crute.

What I like about Crute in this matchup is that he has a more diversified skill set. He’s got great power in his hands and he’s got a tricky ground game for a light heavyweight. In his last fight we saw him get submitted by elite BJJ black belt Misha Cirkunov, but Crute had his moments and proved that he’s an ever-improving force both standing and on the mat.

Oleksiejczuk is much more of a pure striker than Crute, he lands with good volume but also has some serious power, as seen in his round one stoppage victories over Gian Villante and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. The main issue I’d have with betting Oleksiejczuk is that he appears to be an early KO or bust fighter in this spot. We saw him put the pressure on Ovince St. Preux (OSP) from the get-go in his last fight, but he then gassed himself out rapidly, and succumbed to an OSP takedown and submission.

I see this fight playing out very similarly to the OSP fight. Crute will likely be under-pressure early from Oleksiejczuk, but ultimately, I see the younger fighter pushing through and getting a stoppage victory later in the fight. Take the underdog Aussie fighting in his backyard.

(2u) Priscila Cachoeira @ +160 (to Return 5.2 Units)

Shauna Dobson vs. Priscila Cachoeira

Preliminary Card Opener Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time 4:10 p.m. EST

Shauna Dobson is 3-4 as a pro (including her loss on TUF) and is yet to beat a fighter with a winning record.

Shauna Dobson is the near -200 favorite for this matchup, and I honestly have no idea why. Both these fighters are bottom of the barrel UFC “talent” and neither has shown anything to signify that they should be a decent sized favorite over the other, for that reason I’m taking Cachoeira.

Priscila Cachoeira is not an elite fighter by any means, but she is tough, gritty, and throws haymakers. Her 36% striking accuracy leaves a lot to be desired, but both that and her 3.7 strikes landed per minute (SLpM) exceed Dobson’s 33% and 3.56 SLpM (stats courtesy of UFCStats.com). This is a close fight on paper and it likely will be a close fight in the octagon too, and for that reason, it’s a no brainer to take Cachoeira as the +160 underdog.

(1u) Dan Hooker @ -137 (to Return 1.727 Units)

Paul Felder vs. Dan Hooker

Main Event Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time 10 p.m. EST

Dan Hooker holds better significant strike metrics over Felder in; striking accuracy, striking defense and strikes landed per minute (according to UFCStats.com).

Auckland’s main event is an intriguing lightweight scrap between two of the toughest guys in the game. The odds have the hometown fighter, Dan Hooker as the minor -137 favorite (best price), and I like him here as a small play to top off the event.

Hooker and Felder are both on good runs, each going 5-1 over their last six fights. The two match-up very similarly on the feet, with Hooker holding minor statistical advantages in; striking accuracy, striking defense and strikes landed per minute. Hooker works well with his Muay Thai when in close, but he also holds minor height and reach advantages over Felder, meaning that he should also be the more effective guy at range.

Felder’s got great submission defense but the same can’t be said for his 59% takedown defense. I don’t see Hooker pursuing a ground fight, but a few late takedowns could see him take close rounds in his favor. Take Hooker to get the W here, most likely via decision.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC on ESPN+ 26: Felder vs. Hooker / UFC Fight Night 168

Location & Venue: Spark Arena, Auckland, New Zealand

Date: Saturday, February 22nd, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 7 p.m. EST, Prelims 4 p.m. EST

Where to watch: Watch both the Main Card & Prelims over on the ESPN streaming service: ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker