UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Smith vs. Teixeira
Bet of the Card: (2.5u) Fight to Start Round 3 – Yes @ -112 (to Return 4.732 Units)
Main Event Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: Midnight EST.
- Glover Teixeira has only been finished 3 times in his 37-fight career, whilst Anthony Smith has only been finished once in his last 18 bouts.
My bet of the card for this event is for the main event to “start round 3”, meaning that the fight will continue through until at least the start of the third round.
I think it’s safe to say that Smith’s transition to light heavyweight has been a very successful one. His only loss has come via decision to the GOAT, Jon Jones, and his four wins have all come via finishes against much less durable fighters than Glover. His frame has filled out nicely as he now looks and fights like one of the bigger 205ers. He fights well at range and manages distance effectively, something that should prove extremely useful against the aged and plodding Glover Teixeira.
Teixeira will have to work hard to close the gap on Smith to land hard shots in close, or to attempt to drag Smith down to the mat. The issue being that at 40 years old, Glover no longer possesses some of the physical attributes he once did. He still packs power, but his lack of speed and cardio will prove extremely troubling, as I expect Smith to stick and move, landing often and evading danger. Should Teixeira be able to take Smith down, he’ll definitely have the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ) advantage as he’s one of the most elite ground fighters in the UFC. However, it’s worth noting that Smith is a competent BJJ black belt himself, and that should enable him to survive any Glover submission attempts in the early goings.
I love this fight to start round 3 at near even-money. Anthony Smith likes to play the long game against these top ranked fighters in five round contests, and Glover is still extremely tough and gritty. I see this going late into the third or beginning of the fourth before Smith really starts to put a hurting on a fatigued Glover, and from there, he’ll either get the late TKO stoppage or a unanimous decision victory.
(1u) Omar Morales via KO/TKO or Submission @+220 (to Return 3.2 Units)
Preliminary Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7 p.m. EST.
- Gabriel Benitez is coming into this fight off a knockout loss and fighting up a weight class.
My second bet of the card is on the undefeated, Omar Morales.
Morales has looked very good in both his Dana White’s Contender Series bout and his UFC debut. He demonstrated great striking as well as decent takedown defense and a heavy top game. It was a bit surprising that we didn’t see him put away Dong Hyun Ma in his last fight, given Ma’s tendency to get hurt and finished. That being said, it looks like that has opened up the door for us to get solid value on Omar’s KO/TKO or submission prop for this fight.
Like Morales, Benitez is also predominantly a stand-up fighter who holds decent knockout power and some brutal leg kicks. He’s had some success in the UFC against lesser named fighters, but his biggest struggles have come against rangy strikers, Andre Fili and Sodiq Yusuff (pictured blow). He had some success early in both those fights, but on both occasions, he got timed with big shots from range and finished on the mat. His pressure style makes him a very dangerous fighter, but at the same time it opens him up to getting countered.
Take Omar Morales to get the win here via KO/TKO or Submissions. I see him catching Benítez very similarly to Fili and Yusuff, then securing the win via ground and pound or a choke.
(1u) Ray Borg @ +140 (to Return 2.4 Units)
Main Card Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:30 p.m. EST.
- Ricky Simon enters this fight following back-to-back losses, whereas Ray Borg is ridding high following two decisive wins over top grapplers.
My final bet of the card is on the often overlooked, Ray Borg.
Both Borg and Simon boast superb grappling pedigrees. Each have demonstrated excellent wrestling and good cardio, yet Borg is unmistakably the better ground fighter. His scrambling ability is one of the very best in the UFC and he’s shown this time and time again (pictured below: Borg escaping a submission attempt from Louis Smolka and transitioning to take top control). Whether he’s defending takedowns or in the process of being taken down, he’s always able to slip out or roll to reverse position and take control of the grappling exchange. Even when he’s got his back to the mat, Borg is never far away from sweeping his opponent and gaining top control. This is something I see as being extremely important against a wrestler like Simon.
Simon will have the striking edge in the fight, only aided by his 2-inch height and 6-inch reach advantages. However, in a fight like this, it’s hard to believe that Borg will be content to try and strike on the feet when he can make this a real dog fight by forcing Simon into the grappling. This is set to be a razor close fight and one that sees unquestionable value on the +140 underdog.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira
Location & Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida
Date: Wednesday, May 13th, 2020
Start time: Main Card: 9 p.m. EST, Prelims 6 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira Full Fight Card Predictions:
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira Main Event Prediction:
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Anthony Smith vs. Glover Teixeira – Smith via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira Main Card Predictions:
Heavyweight (265lbs): Ovince St. Preux vs. Ben Rothwell – Rothwell via KO/TKO
Lightweight (155lbs): Drew Dober vs. Alexander Hernandez – Hernandez via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Ray Borg vs. Ricky Simón – Borg via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Karl Roberson vs. Marvin Vettori – Vettori via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira Prelim Card Predictions:
Heavyweight (265lbs): Andrei Arlovski vs. Phillipe Lins – Arlovski via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Michael Johnson vs. Thiago Moisés – Moises via Decision
(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Sijara Eubanks vs. Sarah Moras - Eubanks via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Gabriel Benítez vs. Omar Morales – Morales via KO/TKO
Bantamweight (135lbs): Hunter Azure vs. Brian Kelleher – Azure via Decision
Heavyweight (265lbs): Chase Sherman vs. Ike Villanueva – Sherman via Decision
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.