UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Woodley vs. Burns

Our MMA Expert is on a 4-event winning streak with his UFC picks. Last card he hammered in all three of his selections, totalling over 5 units in profit and an ROI of 119.76%. Scroll down to check out his best bets for this weekend’s card, UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs. Burns!
Christian Broughton
Sat, May 30, 11:32 AM

Bets of the Card:

(1u) Klidson Abreu @ +118 (to Return 2.18 Units)

(1u) FOXBet “Bet Boost”: Klidson Abreu to Win in Rounds 1-3 @ +320 (to Returns 4.2 Units)

Klidson Abreu vs. Jamahal Hill

Preliminary Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:45 p.m. EST.

  • Jamahal Hill gave up a massive 6 takedowns in his UFC debut to kickboxer/judoka, Darko Stosic (per UFCStats.com). 

This weekend we look to make it 4-straight “Bet of the Card” cashes with the Brazilian, Klidson Abreu.

Abreu is a tough up-and-coming light heavyweight with a wealth of experience fighting all over the globe. He identifies as a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter and he boasts a number of impressive submission wins, the two most notable of which coming against Viktor Nemkov and Johnny Walker. As a former Brave FC light heavyweight champion, he’s demonstrated that he’s got the pedigree to be a contender within the UFC’s LHW rankings.

Jamahal Hill is an interesting prospect in his own right. He’s exceedingly rangy at 6’4” with a 79” inch reach and looks to be one of the more athletic fighters in the organisation’s heavier weight classes. In his UFC debut against Darko Stosic, he proved how much of a problem he is due to his lengthy volume striking. In that fight he landed an impressive 101 significant strikes, whilst only taking 31 in return (via UFCStats.com). They’re strong numbers and I give him credit, but that’s not to say that it wasn’t a faultless performance from the 29-year-old. In the fight he displayed some glaring holes with his striking defense, and a tendency to leave his chin way up in the air. Should he continue to repeat these same mistakes, he’ll likely get KO’ed against some of the division’s bigger and more active fighters. On top of the striking issues, he also gave up a whopping 6 takedowns, that’s a big number against a fatigued fighter whose preference is generally to strike.

I see Jamahal Hill experiencing some success early against Abreu, doing well to stick and move, but sooner or later they’re going to tie up. From there, I expect Abreu to take down Hill and look to advance his position on the mat. Hill has demonstrated some good get-ups in the past, but Klidson is a different animal on the ground compared to who Hill’s previously fought. I see Abreu keeping Hill down and finding a submission. Take FOXBet’s boost on Abreu to win in rounds 1-3 at +320, that’s big odds for someone with his fight ending prowess.

(1u) FOXBet Boost: Tyron Woodley to Win by KO/TKO or DQ @ +240 (to Return 3.4 Units)

Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns

Main Event Welterweight (170lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:15 p.m. EST.

  • Tyron Woodley has never been submitted and he’s only been taken down 5 times over the course of his 22 fight UFC/Strikeforce career (per UFCStats.com).

This is an intriguing bout between the former welterweight title holder, Tyron Woodley, and surging BJJ ace, Gilbert “Durinho” Burns. 

Money has been steadily pouring in on Woodley over the past couple weeks and I think it’s entirely justified. He’s not only the physically stronger athlete, but he also possesses the tools needed to shut down Gilbert Burns’ game plan. He’s an elite wrestler who’s only been taken down sparingly over the course of his career, and he’s got the reach and power to keep even the most technical strikers honest.

Woodley’s cautious style may give Burns some time to get settled on the feet, but ultimately, Burns should struggle to close the gap effectively and really put a hurting on Woodley whilst standing. Should Burns attempt to engage in grappling, we’ll likely see Woodley stuff takedowns and disengage cleanly from any clinch situations, similarly to how he handled Damion Maia (pictured below).

Burns is undoubtedly a dangerous opponent, but with Woodley’s takedown defense and range management, I think we could see much of Burns’ offense neutralized. We’ve seen in recent years that he’s as game as anyone to stand and bang on the feet, but against someone with Woodley’s power, this could prove to be his undoing. I see Woodley exploding with one of his patented faint-to-overhand rights and putting Burns down and out. Woodley to win via KO/TKO or DQ at +240 is very decent value, especially for a five-rounder in a smaller than usual 25 ft cage.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC on ESPN 9: Woodley vs. Burns / UFC Fight Night 177

Location & Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada

Date: Saturday, May 30th, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 9 p.m. EST, Prelims 6 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns

 

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns Main Event Prediction

Welterweight (170lbs): Tyron Woodley vs. Gilbert Burns – Woodley via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns Main Card Predictions

Heavyweight (265lbs): Blagoy Ivanov vs. Augusto Sakai - Sakai via Decision

Welterweight (170lbs): Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez – Holland via Submission

Lightweight (155lbs): Roosevelt Roberts vs. Brok Weaver – Roberts via Submission

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Mackenzie Dern vs. Hannah Cifers – Dern via Submission

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns Prelim Card Predictions

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Katlyn Chookagian vs. Antonina Shevchenko – Chookagian via Decision

150lb Catchweight: Bill Quarantillo vs. Spike Carlyle – Quarantillo via Decision

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Jamahal Hill vs. Klidson de Abreu – Abreu via Submission

Flyweight (125lbs): Tim Elliott vs. Brandon Royval – Royval via Submission

Bantamweight (135lbs): Casey Kenny vs. Louis Smolka – Kenny via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Chris Gutierrez vs. Vince Morales – Morales via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Jan 2021
Record
Wins
1
Losses
2
Push
0
ROI
10%
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