UFC 250 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Nunes vs. Spencer
It’s been a good run for our MMA handicapper since the UFC returned. Last month he recorded an ROI of 26.12%, and he’s looking to build on that as he now directs his attention to this weekend’s PPV card, UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer.
Bet of the Card: (4u) Alonzo Menifield Round 1 or 2 @ +100 (to Return 8 Units)
Alonzo Menifield vs. Devin Clark
Preliminary Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
- Alonzo Menifield is 9-0 and he’s won all his fights in under a round and a half.
This week’s bet of the card is on the athletic and extremely powerful, Alonzo Menifield.
Since bursting into the UFC following two impressive showings on Dana White’s Contender Series, Menifield has laid waste to both Vinicius Moreira (pictured above) and Paul Craig in under a round. On both occasions he showed excellent fight IQ, as he was offered up good opportunities to gain dominant positions on the ground but knew that keeping the fight standing would present him with a clear risk-averse route to victory.
In this fight he’ll be taking on 9-fight UFC veteran, Devein Clark. Clark is on the smaller end of the light heavyweight spectrum having competed at middleweight during his time in the UFC. His best performances have come against strikers who’ve allowed him to pressure them up against the cage, before taking them down. The issue with this approach against Menifield, is that he’ll be facing someone who boasts a 80% takedown defense (per UFCStats.com), whilst also being at a significant strength disadvantage. On top of this, Clark has shown a tendency to get hit and hurt frequently against some of the division’s heavier hitters. He’s now been finished four times in the UFC, twice via strikes, and twice via submission.
All in all, this looks to be an extremely favorable matchup for Menifield. I expect him to put the pressure on Clark from the opening bell, picking him apart with his crisp power boxing on the feet. If Clark attempts to tie-up Menifield in the clinch or take him down, I see Menifield doing well to over-power Clark and shuck him off, before resuming to pile on more pressure with his striking. I’ve got this being yet another short night at the office for Alonzo Menifield, take him to win in either round 1 or 2, he likely gets this done via KO/TKO sometime in the first.
(1.5) Odds Boost: Amanda Nunes by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ -105 (to Return 2.925 Units)
Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer
Main Event UFC Women’s Featherweight (145lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: Midnight EST
- Amanda Nunes has an 80% takedown defense, whereas Spencer has a mere takedown accuracy of just 16% (per UFCStats.com), meaning that Spencer should have tremendous difficulty getting the fight to the mat, where she stands her best chance of winning.
UFC 250’s main event sees the reigning-defending 135lb and 145lb women’s champion, Amanda Nunes, take on Canadian submission specialist, Felicia Spencer.
This fight will only be Spencer’s fourth in the UFC, following a 2-1 start in the depleted UFC women’s featherweight division. During this time, we’ve seen that she can be a tricky fighter on the ground, both off her back and particularly when she’s on top. As for her striking, it’s rudimentary, although she does well to keep range and can throw some unorthodox strikes when she rushes to close the distance (such as superman punches and elbows from awkward angles). She showcased some of these against Cris Cyborg in her second UFC fight. Her elbows proved effective after slashing Cyborg’s forehead open early, but ultimately, they were telegraphed and will likely open her up to getting countered against a faster counter-striker, such as Nunes.
In Spencer’s fight with Cyborg, she proved extremely susceptible to leg kicks, with Cyborg landing 20 of her 21 significant attempts (per UFCStats.com). This enabled her to offset Spencer’s stance and push forward landing to the body and head. Cyborg clearly implemented this as part of her game plan, but it remained underutilized considering she failed to put Spencer in real danger with her subsequent flurries. It seems like a small part of a fight to get caught up on, but I see this playing a huge role, especially given that this is a five rounder. Nunes’ game is heavily built on standing in front of her opponent and timing them with counter-shots and leg kicks. I think Nunes will have her way with Spencer in the striking, with her inside leg kicks setting up many opportunities for her to rush in and do some real damage to the over-matched Canadian.
I expect this to be a mauling on the feet and I could see a TKO stoppage victory coming in the later rounds, that’s if Nunes doesn’t get her out even earlier. Take Nunes to win either by KO/TKO or Disqualification with FOXBet’s Odds Boost @-105.
(1u) Gerald Meerschaert Moneyline @ +112
Ian Heinisch vs. Gerald Meerschaert
Preliminary Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
- Gerald Meerschaert has a 43.8% takedown accuracy, ranking him 5th overall among active middleweights (minimum 5 UFC fights and 20 takedown attempts – per StatLeaders.ufc.com).
When glancing over Gerald “GM3” Meerschaert’s recent 3-3 record, it’s easy to think that he’s currently in a state of limbo trading wins and loses on the edge of the UFC’s middleweight rankings. What isn’t so apparent is that he was a plus-money underdog in all those fights (per Tapology.com), and he debatably should be 5-1, should a couple of unfortunate split-decision losses have swung his way.
He’s one of the rangier fighters at middleweight standing at 6’1” with a lengthy 79” inch reach (per Tapology.com). He hasn’t always utilized this to the best of his abilities, but recently he has tightened up his striking a lot, and this has shown in his last two fights against Eryk Anders and Deron Winn. GM’3 bread and butter is his grappling, he’s one of the better BJJ black belts (outside of the elites) and his sweeps when in disadvantageous positions are beautiful. One thing that caught me a little off-guard when researching this fight was how solid his takedown accuracy has been over the course of his UFC career. His entries aren’t always the cleanest, but it’s hard to deny his 43.8% success rate.
Ian Heinisch is a solid all-rounder, but it looks as he may have found his ceiling as a late comer to MMA. He was out worked handily by both Dereck Brunson and Omari Akhmedov, two fighters who blended distance striking and takedowns to score the win. Not only that, but they also maintained a steady pace, so they couldn’t be out-cardio’ed by the workhorse, Heinisch. Should GM3 embrace a similar approach, I’d expect a similar result. Take Gerald Meerschaert as the dog here, I’d have him as a slight favorite, so there’s some value to be had at +100 and above. I think he gets this done by decision, but he also offers a serious submission threat, so I’d stick to playing his moneyline over a prop.
(2u) Chase Hooper to Win via Submission @ +450 (to Return 11 Units)
Chase Hooper vs. Alex Caceres
Preliminary Card Featherweight (145lbs) Headliner – Approx. Start Time: 9 p.m. EST
- Alex Caceres has lost 7 times via submission in his 27-fight career.
My final bet of the card is on undefeated prospect, Chase Hooper, to win via submission.
Alex Caceres will have a massive experience advantage in this fight, but Chase Hooper is riding all the momentum in the world as the UFC’s youngest and hottest prospect. Hooper has an exceedingly long 6’1” frame and 75.5” inch reach for a featherweight. He can fight well at range, but he thrives when the fight hits the mat. Four of his nine wins have come via submission, and he could have easily made if five in his last fight, should things have played out slightly differently.
Caceres is an out-and-out karate fighter, with some serious issues with his grappling. There’s not many fighters with his number of UFC fights under their belts, but for one reason or another, he fails to make the improvements that his game sorely needs. With Caceres’ takedown defense standing at just 58%, it’s highly likely that we see this fight go to the ground. From there, Chase should really have his way with him. There have been a number of times we’ve seen Caceres gives up his back in spots where he should have known better, and the result is that he awards his opponents an easy path to victory with a rear naked choke (pictured below: Jason Knight locking up a RNC over Caceres back in 2017). Take Chase Hooper to keep the hype train rolling with a submission victory here.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: Saturday, June 6th, 2020
Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims: 8 p.m. EST., Early Prelims: 6 p.m. EST
Where to watch: Main Card on Pay-Per-View, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer Main Event Prediction
(W) Featherweight (145lbs): Amanda Nunes vs. Felicia Spencer – Nunes via KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer Main Card Predictions
Bantamweight (135lbs): Raphael Assunção vs. Cody Garbrandt – Garbrandt via KO/TKO
Bantamweight (135lbs): Aljamain Sterling vs. Cory Sandhagen - Sterling via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Neil Magny vs. Anthony Rocco Martin – Martin via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Sean O’Malley vs. Eddie Wineland – O’Malley via KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer Prelim Card Predictions
Featherweight (145lbs): Chase Hooper vs. Alex Caceres – Hooper via Submission
Middleweight (185lbs): Ian Heinisch vs. Gerald Meerschaert – Meerschaert via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Cody Stamann vs. Brian Kelleher – Stamann via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Charles Byrd vs. Maki Pitolo – Byrd via Submission
Flyweight (125lbs): Jussier Formiga vs. Alex Perez – Formiga via Submission
Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Alonzo Menifield vs. Devin Clark – Menifield via KO/TKO
Catchweight (150lbs): Evan Dunham vs. Herbert Burns – Burns via Submission
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.