UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Eye vs. Calvillo
Bet of the Card: (2u) Jessica Eye Moneyline @ -110 (to Return 3.818 Units)
Main Event Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:15 p.m. EST.
Jessica Eye has been a money train for me since the UFC formed the women’s flyweight division. She formally competed at bantamweight but could often find herself undersized against her opposition. Now back at her more favored 125lb weight class, she’s been through a career resurgence, and one that I expect her to continue against former 115lb fighter, Cynthia Calvillo.
Calvillo is predominantly a grappler, although her striking is coming along as she matures. She’ll yield the edge in speed due to her smaller frame, but I expect Eye’s 2-inch height and reach advantages to nullify this as Calvillo will have to work constantly to close the gap.
Eye’s takedown defense still isn’t as good as it could be, but with her significant size and strength advantage, she’ll be able to limit the effectiveness of Calvillo’s takedown attempts. Should Calvillo succeed in taking Eye down, I think we likely see Eye able to overpower Calvillo and make her way back up to her feet.
All in all, I see this fight largely taking place standing. Eye’s stand-up is a level above any of Calvillo’s past opponents, and she’ll have to work seriously hard with both her distance striking and grappling to overcome the size and technical striking discrepancies. Take Eye to get the win here, she likely gets the win via unanimous decision.
(1.5u) Over 2.5 Rounds @ -162 (to Return 2.423 Units)
Co-Main Event Middleweight (185lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:45 p.m. EST.
- All of Marvin Vettori’s last 6 fights have gone the distance, including his split-decision loss to current UFC Middleweight Champion, Israel Adesanya (pictured below).
My second and final bet of the card is on the co-main event to go over 2.5 rounds.
Marvin Vettori has a well-established blueprint for how he likes to fight. When striking, he keeps distance and rarely throws shots with much power. This allows him to maintain a steady pace and keep good positioning so that he can tie up his opponent when the opportunity presents itself. From there, he will push them up against the cage and work them over with body shots, and invariably look to take them down to the mat. In his European regional days, he focused much more on advancing his position on the ground and looking for a stoppage victory, but now he seems more than content with wearing down his opponent and draining out the clock for a low-volume and risk-adverse route to victory.
Karl Roberson is a kickboxer and one that seems to show us a new wrinkle to his game in each of his fights. He ideally likes to keep fights at kickboxing range, but we’ve seen him have some success with his grappling, having pulled-off a pair of submission wins since entering the UFC. That being said, I don’t think he’s at all likely to submit Vettori, more that he’s been working hard to progress his ground game, which should ultimately help him defend against Vettori. As for Roberson’s threat of KO’ing Vettori, he hasn’t knocked out anyone since his Dana White’s Contender Series fight three years ago, and on top of this, Vettori has never been finished via strikes.
I see this fight playing out as a typical Marvin Vettori fight. It will be cautious and calculated on the feet by both men, but it’ll only be a matter of time before Vettori turns it into a grappling affair. Once the fight hits the mat, Vettori will likely waste substantial time with his heavy top game. Should there be any submission attempts, both men should do well to defend them, barring any egregious mistakes. Vettori should just coast his way to victory as he rinse and repeats this process over the three rounds, but it is possible that Roberson could manage to turn this into a tentative kickboxing match. Either way, take the over 2.5 rounds at -162, it’s simply too wide for a fight that has limited ways to end inside the distance.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC on ESPN 10: Eye vs. Calvillo/ UFC Fight Night 172
Location & Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
Date: Saturday, June 13th, 2020
Start time: Main Card: 9 p.m. EST, Prelims 6 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+
UFC Fight Night**:** Eye vs. Calvillo Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo Main Event Prediction
(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Jessica Eye vs. Calvillo – Eye via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo Main Card Predictions
Middleweight (185lbs): Marvin Vettori vs. Karl Roberson – Vettori via Decision
Bantamweight (135lbs): Ray Borg vs. Merab Dvalishvili – Dvalishvili via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Andre Fili vs. Charles Jourdain – Fili via Decision
Flyweight (125lbs): Jordan Espinosa vs. Mark De La Rosa – Espinosa via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo Prelim Card Predictions
(W) Bantamweight (125lbs): Mariya Agapova vs. Hannah Cifers – Agapova via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Charles Rosa vs. Kevin Aguilar – Aguilar via Decision
(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Julia Avila vs. Gina Mazany – Avila via KO/TKO
Flyweight (125lbs): Ryan Benoit vs. Tyson Nam – Nam via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Jordan Griffin vs. Darrick Minner – Minner via Decision
Welterweight (170lbs): Anthony Ivy vs. Christian Aguilera – Ivy via KO/TKO
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.