UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Poirier vs. Hooker

Our MMA expert Christian Broughton gives us his picks and predictions for this weekend’s UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker.

Christian Broughton
Sat, June 27, 11:43 AM

BEST BET: (3u) Tanner Boser Moneyline @ -106 (to Return 5.83 Units)

Tanner Boser vs. Philipe Lins

Preliminary Card Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:15 p.m. EST.

  • Tanner Boser has posted a 63% significant strike defense across his first two UFC bouts, despite coming-up against one of the heavyweight division’s best strikers and hottest prospects, Ciryl Gane (per UFCStats.com).

My bet of the card for Saturday is on Tanner “The Bulldozer” Boser.

Boser has really impressed me in his first two UFC fights. He’s shown a pace and volume that so few heavyweights have, and I expect it to cause all sorts of problems for the low output, Philipe Lins.

Lins comes into this bout on the heels of his first UFC fight, an extremely low volume decision loss to 41-year-old, 48 fight-veteran, Andre Arlovski (pictured below). Looking back, it is not a terrible look for the former-PFL heavyweight tournament winner, and although I think he’s better than he showed in his debut, I still see him getting handily out-worked by Boser.

Boser is exceptionally nimble on his feet and has shown some decent cardio, both traits that are few and far between at heavyweight. He’s 1-1 in the UFC, with a one-sided beat down of Daniel Spitz and a valiant decision loss to HW hot prospect, Ciryl Gane. In both fights he showed excellent movement, fluid striking and a good chin.

Lins should have a slight power edge in this fight, but with Boser’s chin and utilization of range striking, I see little to think that Lins via KO would be a common outcome to the fight. This means that Lins’ most likely path to victory is via decision, but that’s a tough task when facing an opponent who yields the volume and striking defense of Boser.

I expect Boser to stick and move throughout the fight, landing frequently over the less agile Lins. Boser’s leg kicks are one of his best attributes, and I could easily see these playing a big role in interfering with Lins’ tempo and forward motion. Take Tanner Boser’s moneyline here; getting him at near even-money looks like outstanding value.

(2u) Over 2.5 Rounds @ +100 (to Return 4 Units)

Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker

Main Event Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:15 p.m. EST.

  • The last 7 UFC main events have gone over the total rounds prop, with all 4 held at The Apex going the full 5 rounds.

Saturday’s main event is set to be an absolute barn burner with two of the UFC’s best lightweights squaring-off.

Both guys predominately like to strike, and each guy generally thrives when their fights become a war of attrition. Each fighter is notoriously tough and manages their cardio well, attributes that often lead to them digging deep and overcoming their opponents down the stretch. Poirier and Hooker also boast decent submission skills, but they’re somewhat similarly matched, and I’d be surprised to see grappling play a significant role in the outcome of this fight.

All this being said, I like the fight to go over 2.5 rounds. Neither fighter is known as a one-shot KO fighter and they’re both as tough and durable as any. Barring a crazy KO or an absolute clinic by one guy, this should play out as a fairly close war that will conclude either in the later rounds or on the judge’s scorecards.

(1.5u) Will the Fight Go the Distance – Yes @ -116 (to Return 2.793 Units)

Mara Romero Borella vs. Miranda Maverick

Preliminary Card Women’s Flyweight (125lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 7:45 p.m. EST.

  • If Miranda Maverick is unable to find a submission on Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Mara Romero Borella, this fight will likely be heading to the judge’s scorecards.

Miranda Maverick is currently sitting as high as -300 on the moneyline, and although I think this is a little too wide, I do much prefer betting the fight to go the distance, over betting Borella.  

Both girls are competent with their striking and grappling, however Maverick does look to be the rightful favorite given that she looks the more polished in both areas. Her pro fights have historically resulted in one of two ways, either she submits her opponent, or it goes to the judge’s scorecards.

Now, although Borella might not be the most legit BJJ black belt in the game after getting submitted by Courtney Casey in her last fight, I still believe she is more than capable of not suffering the same fate again. Afterall, it was only four months ago that we saw her go three full rounds against solid submission grappler, Montana De La Rosa.

Ultimately this line mainly comes down to whether we think Maverick will be able to submit Borella, and I personally think Borella can do enough to stop that from happening. Take this fight to go the distance at -116, it’s a little too wide and well worth a play.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC on ESPN 12: Poirier vs. Hooker

Location & Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada

Date: Saturday, June 27th, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 8 p.m. EST, Prelims 5 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

 

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker Main Event Prediction

Lightweight (155lbs): Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker – Poirier via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker Main Card Predictions

Welterweight (170lbs): Mike Perry vs. Mickey Gall – Gall via Submission

Middleweight (185lbs): Ian Heinisch vs. Kyle Daukaus – Allen via Submission

Heavyweight (265lbs): Maurice Greene vs. Gian Villante – Greene via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker Prelim Card Predictions

Lightweight (155lbs): Luis Pena vs. Khama Worthy – Pena via KO/TKO

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Mara Romero Borella vs. Miranda Maverick – Maverick via Decision

Heavyweight (265lbs): Tanner Boser vs. Philipe Lins – Boser via Decision

Catchweight (150lbs): Sean Woodson vs. Julian Erosa – Woodson via KO/TKO

Welterweight (170lbs): Takashi Sato vs. Ramiz Brahimaj – Brahimaj via Submission

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Jinh Yu Frey vs. Kay Hansen – Hansen via Decision

Featherweight (145lbs): Jordan Griffin vs. Youssef Zalal – Zalal via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.

Jun 2020

Record

Wins

4

Losses

9

Push

0

ROI

-25.68%

0Betslip

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