UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Lewis vs. Oleinik
Bet of the Card: (2u) FOXBet Bet Boost: Aleksei Oleinik to Win in Rounds 1-5 @ +250 (to Return 7 Units)
Main Event Heavyweight (265lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:15 p.m. EST.
- Aleksei Oleinik is 5-3 as an underdog in the UFC, with 3 of those wins coming as a +200 (or greater) ‘dog (per Tapology.com).
This week’s bet of the card is on the 73-fight veteran, Aleksei “The Boa Constrictor” Oleinik.
Oleinik is one of the few submission grapplers within the UFC’s heavyweight division. He is an International Master of Sports in Combat Sambo, whilst also holding a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (BJJ), and a 4th degree black belt in Jujutsu (Japanese Jiu-Jitsu). On top of his esteemed grappling accolades, he also yields a ridiculous 46 career wins via submission, with 6 of those coming within the UFC (per Tapology.com).
Derrick Lewis is almost the polar opposite to Oleinik, in the sense that he’s a pure striker, with the bulk of his wins coming via KO/TKO (18 KO/TKO’s, 1 Submission & 4 Decision). He’s typically in low volume striking matches, and that suits his need to conserve energy, generally because he’s not in the best “fighting shape”. Lewis has been fortunate with some of the wins he’s amassed in the UFC, particularly those that have come via clutch last-second knockouts and favorable judging.
I see this fight playing out one of two ways, either Lewis catches 43-year-old Oleinik with one of his huge bombs, or Oleinik takes him down and submits him. It’s reasonable to lean either way on this fight, but with Lewis’ moneyline at -200, you have to look towards the perennial underdog, Aleksei Oleinik.
Aleksei has all the skills to get Lewis down to the mat and start working for submissions. He was able to stand up to the legendary power of Mark Hunt in their fight, and I’m sure he can do the same against a lessor skilled striker in Derrick Lewis.
Expect Oleinik to close distance quickly in this one, looking to push Lewis up against the fence and land on him with hard body shots. Lewis has shown a susceptibility to being hurt to the mid-section, and if this doesn’t put him down, look for Oleinik to land a takedown instead. With Lewis’ less-than-stellar 53% takedown defense, I see little reason to think that he could defend against old man Oleinik and his bear-like strength. Once on the ground, Oleinik will use his excellent top control and high-level submission skills to secure a stoppage win.
Take Oleinik to win inside the distance with FOXBet’s Bet Boost, it’s around 70 cents higher than his moneyline, and that’s one hell of a difference considering this fight shouldn’t see the scorecards.
(1.62u) Beneil Dariush Moneyline @ -162 (to Return 2.62 Units)
Main Card Lightweight (155lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:15 p.m. EST.
- Dariush comes into this fight on a 4-fight win streak, with all of his last 3 wins coming inside the distance.
Beneil Dariush is being straight-up disrespected in this fight, even when considering that he’s a -162 favorite. He is one of the most skilled and technical fighters in the UFC’s stacked lightweight division, and although his chin is a little suspect, I see limited paths to victory for Scott Holtzman.
Holtzman is stylistically very similar to Dariush, but he lacks the polished technique and finesse. He’s undoubtably very durable and he’s never been finished in his 17-fight career, but that being said, he’s never fought anyone in their prime and on the level of Dariush.
Wherever this fight goes, I see Dariush having the edge. He’s a more calculated striker, he’s more technical in the clinch, and he’s a significantly better grappler. For this reason, I struggle to see how Holtzman wins, outside of an uncharacteristic KO. Take Dariush on the moneyline, I think he takes this one via unanimous decision, but don’t be surprised if he ends up submitting Holzman.
(1u) Tim Means Moneyline @ +116 (to Return 2.16 Units)
Preliminary Card Welterweight (170lbs) Headliner – Approx. Start Time: 8:30 p.m. EST.
- Tim Means holds better fighting metrics in all key fields over Laureano Staropoli, most notably his striking accuracy (45% vs. 31%) and striking defense (62% vs. 57%) (per UFCStats.com).
My final bet of the card is on Tim “The Dirty Bird” Means.
Much like Dariush, I feel Means holds all the advantages in this fight over Staropoli. He’s got an inch in height and 3.5 inches in reach over the Argentinian, alongside 21 fights worth of UFC experience (18 more than Staropoli).
Admittedly Means has shown some questionable durability in two of his last three fights, but up until each moment where he was compromised, he was decisively winning each fight. I understand the cause for concern with him, but at the same time, this has now gifted us with decent plus-money on a guy who could be -200 or higher, should we not be questioning his chin. On top of this, I’m not convinced that Staropoli has a huge amount of power anyway. All three of his UFC performances have gone the distance, and the two that he’s won were against a low-level striker in Hector Aldana, and a washed-up Thiago Alves.
I expect Means to march Staropoli down throughout the fight, firing at range and putting a hurting on the young South American. His superior striking stats should be on full display here, and I expect him to pick apart Staropoli with greater accuracy and volume, whilst showcasing his exceptional striking defense. Take Tim Means’ moneyline, it’s not every day that you get the significantly better fighter at ‘dog odds.
Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.
Event: UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleynik / UFC on ESPN+ 32 / #UFCVegas6
Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
Date: Saturday, August 8th, 2020
Start time: Main Card: 9 p.m. EST, Prelims 6 p.m. EST.
Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN+, Prelims on ESPN+
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik Full Fight Card Predictions
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik Main Event Prediction
Heavyweight (265lbs): Derrick Lewis vs. Alexey Oleynik – Oleinik via Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik Main Card Predictions
Middleweight (185lbs): Chris Weidman vs. Omari Akhmedov – Akhmedov via KO/TKO
Middleweight (185lbs): Darren Stewart vs. Maki Pitolo – Stewart via Decision
(W) Bantamweight (135lbs): Yana Kunitskaya vs. Julija Stoliarenko – Kunitskaya via Decision
Lightweight (155lbs): Beneil Dariush vs. Scott Holtzman – Dariush via Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik Prelim Card Predictions
Welterweight (170lbs): Tim Means vs. Laureano Staropoli – Means via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Kevin Holland vs. Joaquin Buckley – Holland via Submission
Lightweight (155lbs): Nasrat Haqparast vs. Alex Munoz – Munoz via Decision
Middleweight (185lbs): Andrew Sanchez vs. Wellington Turman – Turman via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Gavin Tucker vs. Justin Jaynes – Tucker via Decision
Featherweight (145lbs): Youssef Zalal vs. Peter Barrett – Zalal via Submission
Bantamweight (135lbs): Ali Al Qaisi vs. Irwin Rivera – Ali Al Qaisi via Decision
*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.