UFC 252 Odds, Picks & Predictions: Miocic vs. Cormier 3

Bet of the Card: (2u) Livinha Souza Moneyline @ -152 (to Return 3.316 Units)

Livinha Souza vs. Ashley Yoder

Preliminary Card Women’s Strawweight (115lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9 p.m. EST.

• Ashley Yoder is 2-4 in the UFC and she has been outstruck in all but 1 of those fights (per UFCStats.com).

My bet of the card for this weekend’s event is Livinha “The Brazilian Gangsta” Souza.

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Ashley Yoder hasn’t looked the greatest during her time in the UFC, with her only decisive victory coming against Syuri Kondo in mid-2019. She’s predominately a submission grappler, although she lacks the refined skills to become a prolific finisher on the mat. This can be seen in the aforementioned Kondo fight, where she dominated, yet couldn’t lock-up a submission, or ground-and-pound stoppage. A further issue with Yoder’s game is that her defensive wrestling is pretty weak, with her being the only person Mackenzie Dern’s been able to takedown in the UFC (Dern yields a takedown accuracy of just 7%). On top of this, she wasn’t easily outclassing Dern in the striking either (pictured below), which should be quite alarming given that Dern’s striking experience was exceptionally limited when they fought.

Livinha Souza is more of an all-rounder compared to Yoder. Her wrestling is significantly better, her striking is sharper, and even her grappling at least matches that of Yoder’s. She will however suffer from a 4-inch height and 6-inch reach disadvantage, but with her edge in speed and strike defense (62% vs. 49%), I still see her dictating the pace and landing with the better shots regardless.

Expect Souza to lead the dance here, engaging in plenty of clinch fighting along the cage, landing multiple takedowns, before holding top position to easily claim rounds in her favor. Should Yoder have shown us the capacity to submit someone of UFC calibre, I might consider that a threat to Souza, but she quite frankly hasn’t done that. Souza’s even shown to be the more active when looking for submissions, as she averages almost 4 times the submission attempts per 15 minutes of Yoder (1.9 vs. 0.5) (per UFCStats.com).

Take Livinha Souza to win on the moneyline, she should get this done on the scorecards, but with her pace and pressure, a finish wouldn’t be out of the question.

(2u) Marlon Vera Moneyline @ +275 (to Return 7.5 Units)

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera

Co-Main Event Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 11:45 p.m. EST.

• Marlon Vera will undoubtably be Sean O’Malley’s toughest opponent to date, yet he’s getting no respect from the bookmakers as the sizeable +275 underdog.

This line is simply too wide in my opinion. Sean O’Malley’s got all the hype in the world behind him with his unbeaten 12-0 record and back-to-back first round KO wins, but I’m not buying the hype until he’s beaten someone on the level of Marlon Vera.

Vera’s a gritty, durable fighter, and he fights well regardless of where the fight takes place and what range it’s being fought at. He strikes well in close or at distance, and his ground game is pretty slick from top and bottom position. Vera’s generally been a finisher with all of his last 8 wins coming inside the distance, but that’s not to say that he isn’t able to perform well for the full 15 minutes.

O’Malley will definitely be the more technical striker of the two, but the question is for how long. We’re yet to see anyone really put a pace on him, whilst also offering up a varied and lethal offense. With Vera’s versatile style and creative striking, we’ll likely see O’Malley have to adapt in ways he’s never had to before, and he’ll also have to do so quickly.

Realistically, I feel that the hype on O’Malley is just a little overblown right now. I don’t see him blasting Vera out of there in the first round, as he did to Jose Quiñonez and Eddie Wineland, and for that reason, I find it hard to see how he’s going to look like a -315 favorite. Take Marlon Vera’s moneyline, +275 is a wild number, and one that looks to hold significant value.

(1u) Stipe Miocic Moneyline @ -102 (to Return 1.98 Units)

Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier 3 

Main Event UFC Heavyweight (265lbs) Championship Bout – Approx. Start Time: 00:15 a.m.  EST.

• Stipe Miocic should have the perfect game plan to see off Daniel “DC” Cormier, following his emphatic KO/TKO victory against him at UFC 241.

This fight is a tough one to call, but it looks to me that Stipe is the clear value side of the line.

He’s riding the momentum of winning their second fight, and he now has the complete blueprint for beating Cormier. As seen in their rematch, Stipe made the adjustment late in the fight to begin targeting “DC’s” mid-section with strikes. DC’s shown a weakness to the belly at different points in his career, but with the fatigue that had set in, and Stipe’s late resurgence, it was more visible than ever. After landing a series of blows to DC’s stomach area, Stipe was then able switch it up and start striking to the head, invariably ending in the finish to the fight.

This time round, it’ll be important for Stipe to strike to the body early and with more frequency. The result of this should lead to a reduction in the amount of hand fighting DC does, which is a staple in his offense, as it allows him to close distance and get into range of his opponent (pictured below). With this tactic being shut down with body shots, it’s likely that we’ll see Stipe making good use of his 5-inch height and 7.5-inch in reach over DC, thus providing Stipe with room to operate more effectively.

To top it all off, DC has already announced that this will be his last ever fight, win or lose. I’m not normally one to play into narratives, but in MMA it generally doesn’t work out too well for fighters that have one foot out the door. Of course, DC is a different breed having been a former-Olympian and 2 division UFC champion, but one does have to wonder how much he has left to give at 41 years of age and coming off a KO loss.

Take Stipe Miocic’s moneyline, I see him getting the win and wrapping up the trilogy in style.

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Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

Event: UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, July August 15th, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 10 p.m. EST, Prelims: 8 p.m. EST., Early Prelims: 6 p.m. EST

Where to watch: Main Card on Pay-Per-View, Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+, Early Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Main Event Prediction

_Heavyweight (265lbs): Stipe Miocic vs. Daniel Cormier – _Miocic via KO/TKO__

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Main Card Predictions

_Bantamweight (135lbs): Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera – _Vera via Decision__

_Heavyweight (265lbs): Junior dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik – _dos Santos via Decision__

_Bantamweight (135lbs): John Dodson vs. Merab Dvalishvili – _Dvalishvili via Decision__

_Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba – _Ankalaev via KO/TKO__

UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 Prelim Card Predictions

_Lightweight (155lbs): Jim Miller vs. Vinc Pichel – _Pichel via Decision__

_(W) Strawweight (115lbs):  Livinha Souza vs. Ashley Yoder – _Souza via Decision__

_Featherweight (145lbs): Herbert Burns vs. Daniel Pineda – _Burns via Submission__

_(W) Strawweight (115lbs):  Felice Herrig vs. Virna Jandiroba – _Jandiroba via Submission__

_Featherweight (145lbs): TJ Brown vs. Danny Chavez – _Brown via Decision__

_Heavyweight (265lbs): Christopher Daukaus vs. Parker Porter – _Porter via KO/TKO__

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

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