UFC Fight Night Odds, Picks & Predictions: Munhoz vs. Edgar

MMA betting expert Christian Broughton swept his picks for last week’s UFC 252, going 3-0 with an ROI of 155.92%! He looks to extend his winning streak to 5 events, as he sets his focus on UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar.
Christian Broughton
Fri, August 21, 1:23 PM

Bet of the Card: (2u) Pedro Munhoz Moneyline @ -220 (to Return 2.9 Units)

(0.5u) Pedro Munhoz by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ +210 (to Return 1.55 Units)

Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar

Main Event Bantamweight (135lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:45 p.m. EST.

  • Frankie Edgar is 1-3 in his last four fights, and he’s been finished in the first round of two of those losses.

My bet of the card for Saturday night is on Pedro Munhoz.

Munhoz comes into this fight with a lot of confidence following an impressive 3-1 stretch, with his only loss in that time coming in his last fight, to presumably the division’s next title challenger, Aljamain Sterling. His game has always centred around his slick grappling, but over the past few years, he’s become one of the more revered strikers in the stacked UFC bantamweight division. He still lacks some finesse compared to the more elite strikers, yet his power and durability makes him a nightmare to deal with on the feet. He can eat a shot as good as anyone, and he can sling one from the hip that so few are able to withstand.

This will be Frankie Edgar’s long-awaited bantamweight debut. It’s been a long time coming given that he’s had to contend with much large opponents during his time at featherweight and lightweight, but perhaps this is a move coming too late in his career. Frankie turns 39 in less than two months, and typically changing weight classes doesn’t work out too well when fighters are at the back end of their careers. On top of this, we’ve seen Frankie suffer two brutal KO/TKO losses over the past couple years, something we’d have never expected to see given his legendary ability to take hard shots and recover.

It’s likely we’ll see this fight largely taking place on the feet, and although Frankie has the better movement and striking defense, I’m not convinced he’ll be able to take too many hard shots from Munhoz. Should Edgar look towards his wrestling, I’d expect Munhoz to defend well, if not go for one of his deadly guillotine chokes.

Ultimately, I see this ending with Munhoz KO’ing the aged veteran, but there are also paths for him to win on the scorecards, or even via an unlikely submission. Take Munhoz’s moneyline at a very reasonable -220 for a couple units, as well as a small half unit on him via KO/TKO/DQ at +210.

(1u) Marcin Prachnio Moneyline @ +200 (to Return 3 Units)

Mike Rodriguez vs. Marcin Prachnio

Main Card Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 9:45 p.m. EST.

  • If Mike Rodriguez’ decision loss to John Allen wasn’t overturned to a no contest, he’d be 1-3 in the UFC, with his last defeat being a KO loss in just over 1 minute.

The bookmakers currently have Marcin Prachnio as the moderate underdog on the moneyline, yet he’s favored to win on the decision props. This generally means that he’s recognized as being the more technical fighter, as he’s favored to win should the fight go the full 15 minutes. The flip side to this, is that he’s also considered the less durable fighter, as Rodriguez is significantly favored by the odds to get the finish. Now, I agree with this in-part, but due to back-to-back KO losses for Prachnio, it seems like the books are overlooking who they actually came against and how.

In Prachnio’s UFC debut, he came in as the -220 favorite against UFC vet, Sam Alvey. He fought recklessly in that fight, and he was punished for it against the savvy hard-hitting counterpuncher. To follow that up, he faced a seriously hot prospect and potential future title challenger, Magomed Ankalaev. In that fight, he fought a far more calculated style, getting in a couple of good exchanges in the opening minute or two. Unfortunately for Prachnio, he was facing a much larger and much more polished fighter, and consequently he was taken care of once again.

Prachnio enters this fight coming off a near 2-year layoff. Often that would be a bit of a concern for me, but with him now in the midst of his prime years and coming off a pair of losses, I appreciate that this could prove to be a monumental boost to his game. In this time, he should have been able to hone in his style, whilst also recovering from the damage he might have sustained.

With this being said, even if he weren’t to make a ton of adjustments, I still see a patient Prachnio getting the better of “Slow” Mike. He’ll have to work hard to nullify Rodriquez’ minor size and substantial 8-inch reach advantages, but with his edge in speed and technical striking, I think Prachnio will be able to do just that. As for doubts about his durability, it looks to me that they’re a little overblown given who and how he’s lost his first two UFC bouts.

Take Marcin Prachnio to win on the moneyline, +200 looks to be good value against someone of Rodriguez’ caliber.

(1u) Under 1.5 Rounds @ +100

Ovince St. Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield

Co-Main Event Light Heavyweight (205lbs) Bout – Approx. Start Time: 10:15 p.m. EST.

  • All of Alonzo Menifield’s 9 career wins have come inside 1.5 rounds, and 4 of Ovince St. Preux’s last 5 wins have come inside 1.5 rounds.

My final bet of the card is on the co-main event to end inside the first round and a half.

This fight should be absolute fireworks for as long as it lasts. Alonzo Menifield is a tank who throws with brutal knockout power in every shot. Ovince St. Preux (O.S.P.) also holds significant power in his limbs, but he combines this with some clever submission skills to boot. 

Expect Menifield to close the distance early on OSP, throwing wildly with devastating intentions. Should he connect, it’s likely we’ll see 37-year-old St. Preux crumble to the canvas. If not, then look for Menifield to slow down quickly, thus opening up the door for OSP to fire back or even take him down and start looking for his patented Von Flue choke.

There’s a chance this could turn into a sloppy light heavyweight clash if both men get fatigued, but even still, the under 1.5 looks to hold terrific value in a fight that should be a high-output banger from the off.

Scroll down to view event details, odds & Christian’s full card predictions.

 

Event: UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar / UFC on ESPN 15 / UFC Vegas 7 / #UFCVegas7

Location & Venue: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date: Saturday, August 22nd, 2020

Start time: Main Card: 8:30 p.m. EST, Prelims 5:30 p.m. EST.

Where to watch: Main Card on ESPN, Prelims on ESPN+

UFC Odds: Click here to view the full list of odds for UFC Fight Night: Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar

 

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar Full Fight Card Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar Main Event Prediction

Bantamweight (135lbs): Pedro Munhoz vs. Frankie Edgar – Munhoz via KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar Main Card Predictions

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Ovince St. Preux vs. Alonzo Menifield – Menifield via KO/TKO

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Mike Rodriguez vs. Marcin Prachnio – Prachnio via KO/TKO

(W) Flyweight (125lbs): Mariya Agapova vs. Shana Dobson – Agapova via Submission

Welterweight (170lbs): Daniel Rodriguez vs. Takashi Sato – Sato via Decision

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar Prelim Card Predictions

(W) Strawweight (115lbs): Mizuki Inoue vs. Amanda Lemos – Inoue via Decision

Lightweight (155lbs): Austin Hubbard vs. Joe Solecki – Solecki via Decision

Light Heavyweight (205lbs): Ike Villanueva vs. Jordan Wright – Villanueva via KO/TKO

Welterweight (170lbs): Carlton Minus vs. Matthew Semelsberger – Minus via Decision

Bantamweight (135lbs): Timur Valiev vs. Mark Striegl – Valiev via Decision

*Fight card, bout order and number of fights subject to change.

Click here to check out the all the Best Odds for the Fights!

Christian Broughton
ChrisRBroughton
A former sportsbook trader with a passion for mixed martial arts. If there is value to be found then Christian is the man to find it.
Jan 2021
Record
Wins
1
Losses
2
Push
0
ROI
10%
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